Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Switzerland: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 27/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 20 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.46, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.48) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±4.9689 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Switzerland: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed6.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.44 | 14.16 | 0.71 | 5.94 – 8.93 |
| 2029 | 8.71 | 20.36 | -2.94 | 5.91 – 11.5 |
| 2031 | 9.98 | 25.02 | -5.06 | 6.11 – 13.85 |
| 2036 | 13.16 | 30 | -8.11 | 6.71 – 19.6 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 79.6 | 88.43 | 71.94 | 77.06 – 82.13 |
| 2028 | 82.68 | 97.99 | 69.42 | 76.53 – 88.84 |
| 2030 | 85.77 | 105.53 | 68.65 | 76.03 – 95.51 |
| 2035 | 93.49 | 121.43 | 69.28 | 74.1 – 112.89 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.2T | 1.3T | 1.1T | 1.2T – 1.2T |
| 2029 | 1.3T | 1.4T | 1.2T | 1.2T – 1.4T |
| 2031 | 1.5T | 1.6T | 1.3T | 1.3T – 1.6T |
| 2036 | 1.8T | 2T | 1.6T | 1.4T – 2.2T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1 | 3.96 | -1.55 | 0.5 – 1.51 |
| 2029 | 0.29 | 5.4 | -4.15 | -0.61 – 1.19 |
| 2031 | -0.43 | 6.17 | -6.16 | -1.61 – 0.75 |
| 2036 | -2.23 | 7.11 | -10 | -4.14 – -0.32 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed114.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 131.2k | 138.7k | 124.7k | 127.1k – 135.2k |
| 2029 | 144.1k | 157.1k | 132.9k | 133.5k – 154.8k |
| 2031 | 157.1k | 173.8k | 142.6k | 139.3k – 174.9k |
| 2036 | 189.5k | 213.2k | 169k | 150.2k – 228.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 38.31 | 42.71 | 33.23 | 37.02 – 39.6 |
| 2029 | 37.93 | 45.55 | 29.14 | 34.94 – 40.93 |
| 2031 | 37.55 | 47.39 | 26.2 | 33.04 – 42.07 |
| 2036 | 36.61 | 50.52 | 20.55 | 28.61 – 44.61 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed69.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 70.37 | 77.48 | 63.25 | 68.15 – 72.58 |
| 2028 | 72.88 | 85.2 | 60.56 | 67.49 – 78.28 |
| 2030 | 75.4 | 91.31 | 59.49 | 66.84 – 83.96 |
| 2035 | 81.69 | 104.19 | 59.2 | 64.75 – 98.64 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.75 | 3.26 | -1.94 | 0.18 – 1.32 |
| 2029 | 1.23 | 5.59 | -3.43 | 0.21 – 2.26 |
| 2031 | 1.72 | 7.34 | -4.3 | 0.33 – 3.1 |
| 2036 | 2.93 | 10.87 | -5 | 0.7 – 5.16 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.91 | 27.27 | 24.73 | 25.11 – 26.72 |
| 2028 | 25.64 | 27.62 | 23.93 | 23.75 – 27.54 |
| 2030 | 25.38 | 27.93 | 23.17 | 22.5 – 28.26 |
| 2035 | 24.71 | 28.31 | 21.58 | 19.58 – 29.83 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.1m | 9.5m | 8.7m | 8.8m – 9.3m |
| 2029 | 9.1m | 9.5m | 8.7m | 8.4m – 9.7m |
| 2031 | 9m | 9.5m | 8.7m | 8m – 10.1m |
| 2036 | 9m | 9.5m | 8.6m | 7.2m – 10.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.24 | 10.41 | -5.64 | 0.08 – 2.41 |
| 2028 | 1.05 | 15 | -10 | -0.99 – 3.09 |
| 2030 | 0.86 | 15 | -10 | -1.79 – 3.5 |
| 2035 | 0.38 | 15 | -10 | -3.41 – 4.16 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed929.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 942.7bn | 1.2T | 711.1bn | 892.2bn – 993.2bn |
| 2028 | 975bn | 1.4T | 573.8bn | 866.8bn – 1.1T |
| 2030 | 1T | 1.5T | 489.4bn | 847.4bn – 1.2T |
| 2035 | 1.1T | 1.8T | 355.5bn | 801.7bn – 1.4T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.98 | 18.89 | 9.06 | 13 – 14.95 |
| 2028 | 14.9 | 23.41 | 6.39 | 12.88 – 16.92 |
| 2030 | 15.35 | 26.34 | 4.37 | 12.44 – 18.26 |
| 2035 | 15.72 | 31.25 | 0.18 | 10.82 – 20.61 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1T | 1.4T | 855.5bn | 1T – 1.2T |
| 2028 | 1.2T | 1.6T | 746.8bn | 1.1T – 1.3T |
| 2030 | 1.3T | 1.8T | 694.9bn | 1.1T – 1.4T |
| 2035 | 1.4T | 2.2T | 648.6bn | 1.1T – 1.8T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.79 | 4.51 | 1.06 | 2.48 – 3.09 |
| 2029 | 2.36 | 5.34 | 0 | 1.79 – 2.93 |
| 2031 | 1.93 | 5.78 | 0 | 1.18 – 2.67 |
| 2036 | 0.85 | 6.31 | 0 | 0 – 1.85 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CHE · API docs
