Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Switzerland: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 32/100); the economy is in slowdown; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.49 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.36, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.44) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±0.415 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Switzerland: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed6.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.09 | 13.51 | -1.34 | 4.47 – 7.7 |
| 2028 | 7.06 | 19.93 | -5.8 | 4.1 – 10.03 |
| 2030 | 8.03 | 24.64 | -8.57 | 4 – 12.07 |
| 2035 | 10.47 | 30 | -13.02 | 4 – 16.94 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 79.6 | 88.43 | 71.94 | 77.06 – 82.13 |
| 2028 | 82.68 | 97.99 | 69.42 | 76.53 – 88.84 |
| 2030 | 85.77 | 105.53 | 68.65 | 76.03 – 95.51 |
| 2035 | 93.49 | 121.43 | 69.28 | 74.1 – 112.89 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1T | 1.2T | 1T | 1.1T – 1.1T |
| 2028 | 1.2T | 1.3T | 1.1T | 1.1T – 1.3T |
| 2030 | 1.3T | 1.4T | 1.2T | 1.2T – 1.5T |
| 2035 | 1.6T | 1.8T | 1.4T | 1.2T – 1.9T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.49 | 10.05 | -5.94 | 0.03 – 2.94 |
| 2028 | 1.79 | 12 | -10 | -0.76 – 4.35 |
| 2030 | 2.1 | 12 | -10 | -1.26 – 5.47 |
| 2035 | 2.88 | 12 | -10 | -2.1 – 7.85 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed114.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 118.6k | 125.8k | 112.4k | 114.9k – 122.3k |
| 2028 | 128.4k | 140.9k | 117.7k | 118.9k – 137.9k |
| 2030 | 138.3k | 154.3k | 124.4k | 122.6k – 154k |
| 2035 | 162.9k | 185.6k | 143.2k | 129.1k – 196.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.09 | 43.22 | 36.47 | 38.84 – 41.33 |
| 2028 | 40.06 | 45.49 | 33.79 | 37.1 – 43.02 |
| 2030 | 40.03 | 47.04 | 31.94 | 35.49 – 44.58 |
| 2035 | 39.97 | 49.88 | 28.53 | 31.68 – 48.26 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed69.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 70.37 | 77.48 | 63.25 | 68.15 – 72.58 |
| 2028 | 72.88 | 85.2 | 60.56 | 67.49 – 78.28 |
| 2030 | 75.4 | 91.31 | 59.49 | 66.84 – 83.96 |
| 2035 | 81.69 | 104.19 | 59.2 | 64.75 – 98.64 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.11 | 2.62 | -3.05 | -0.74 – 0.51 |
| 2028 | -1.39 | 3.36 | -5 | -2.5 – -0.27 |
| 2030 | -2.66 | 3.47 | -5 | -4.23 – -1.09 |
| 2035 | -5 | 3.66 | -5 | -5 – -2.28 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.91 | 27.27 | 24.73 | 25.11 – 26.72 |
| 2028 | 25.64 | 27.62 | 23.93 | 23.75 – 27.54 |
| 2030 | 25.38 | 27.93 | 23.17 | 22.5 – 28.26 |
| 2035 | 24.71 | 28.31 | 21.58 | 19.58 – 29.83 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.1m | 9.5m | 8.7m | 8.8m – 9.3m |
| 2028 | 9.2m | 9.6m | 8.8m | 8.5m – 9.8m |
| 2030 | 9.3m | 9.7m | 8.8m | 8.2m – 10.3m |
| 2035 | 9.5m | 9.9m | 9.1m | 7.5m – 11.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.24 | 10.41 | -5.64 | 0.08 – 2.41 |
| 2028 | 1.05 | 15 | -10 | -0.99 – 3.09 |
| 2030 | 0.86 | 15 | -10 | -1.79 – 3.5 |
| 2035 | 0.38 | 15 | -10 | -3.41 – 4.16 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed929.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 942.7bn | 1.2T | 711.1bn | 892.2bn – 993.2bn |
| 2028 | 975bn | 1.4T | 573.8bn | 866.8bn – 1.1T |
| 2030 | 1T | 1.5T | 489.4bn | 847.4bn – 1.2T |
| 2035 | 1.1T | 1.8T | 355.5bn | 801.7bn – 1.4T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.88 | 18.79 | 8.97 | 12.91 – 14.85 |
| 2028 | 14.85 | 23.35 | 6.34 | 12.83 – 16.86 |
| 2030 | 15.32 | 26.3 | 4.34 | 12.41 – 18.23 |
| 2035 | 15.7 | 31.23 | 0.17 | 10.81 – 20.59 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1T | 1.4T | 855.5bn | 1T – 1.2T |
| 2028 | 1.2T | 1.6T | 746.8bn | 1.1T – 1.3T |
| 2030 | 1.3T | 1.8T | 694.9bn | 1.1T – 1.4T |
| 2035 | 1.4T | 2.2T | 648.6bn | 1.1T – 1.8T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.82 | 5.79 | 3.86 | 4.6 – 5.05 |
| 2028 | 4.72 | 6.39 | 3.05 | 4.24 – 5.2 |
| 2030 | 4.61 | 6.77 | 2.46 | 3.92 – 5.31 |
| 2035 | 4.36 | 7.4 | 1.31 | 3.19 – 5.52 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CHE · API docs
