Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Channel Islands: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 38/100); the economy is in slowdown; 5 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.16 for 2024.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.24, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2024: balanced (projected sentiment +0.18) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-8% skill vs naive; realized ±7.6938 over 14) · a track record, not a guarantee
Channel Islands: forward projections across 5 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2033, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed12.5bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 13.1bn | 14.7bn | 11.8bn | 12.7bn – 13.5bn |
| 2026 | 14.6bn | 17.3bn | 12.2bn | 13.5bn – 15.7bn |
| 2028 | 16.1bn | 19.6bn | 13bn | 14.2bn – 17.9bn |
| 2033 | 19.7bn | 24.7bn | 15.4bn | 15.6bn – 23.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.72(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2.16 | 12 | -10 | -1.32 – 5.65 |
| 2026 | -0.76 | 12 | -10 | -6.79 – 5.27 |
| 2028 | -3.68 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 4.34 |
| 2033 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 2.52 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed74.6k(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 78k | 87.4k | 69.8k | 75.6k – 80.4k |
| 2026 | 86.3k | 102.6k | 72.1k | 79.9k – 92.7k |
| 2028 | 94.6k | 115.7k | 76.3k | 83.9k – 105.4k |
| 2033 | 115.4k | 145.2k | 89.6k | 91.5k – 139.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed168.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 168.3k | 176.3k | 160.9k | 163.1k – 173.5k |
| 2028 | 168.7k | 176.7k | 161.3k | 156.2k – 181.2k |
| 2030 | 169.1k | 177.1k | 161.7k | 149.9k – 188.3k |
| 2035 | 170k | 178k | 162.6k | 134.7k – 205.3k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.05 | 6.67 | 5.43 | 5.86 – 6.24 |
| 2028 | 5.81 | 6.89 | 4.73 | 5.37 – 6.26 |
| 2030 | 5.58 | 6.97 | 4.18 | 4.92 – 6.24 |
| 2035 | 4.98 | 6.95 | 3.01 | 3.88 – 6.08 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CHI · API docs
