Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
China: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 38/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 20 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.1 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.24, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.34) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-04-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-8% skill vs naive; realized ±3.463 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
China: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed3.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.86 | 5.33 | 2.38 | 3.49 – 4.22 |
| 2029 | 4.57 | 7.12 | 2.02 | 3.83 – 5.31 |
| 2031 | 5.29 | 8.58 | 1.99 | 4.19 – 6.38 |
| 2036 | 7.07 | 11.73 | 2.41 | 4.99 – 9.15 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.45 | 23 | 20.11 | 20.78 – 22.11 |
| 2028 | 22.21 | 24.89 | 19.88 | 20.56 – 23.85 |
| 2030 | 22.96 | 26.43 | 19.96 | 20.36 – 25.57 |
| 2035 | 24.86 | 29.75 | 20.62 | 19.7 – 30.01 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.5T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 21.5T | 23.7T | 19.6T | 20.8T – 22.2T |
| 2029 | 23.2T | 26.9T | 19.9T | 21.5T – 24.9T |
| 2031 | 24.9T | 29.7T | 20.7T | 22T – 27.7T |
| 2036 | 29T | 35.9T | 23.1T | 23T – 35T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.96(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.1 | 9.4 | -0.49 | 3.15 – 5.05 |
| 2029 | 3.41 | 12 | -4.54 | 1.72 – 5.11 |
| 2031 | 2.72 | 12 | -7.54 | 0.53 – 4.91 |
| 2036 | 1 | 12 | -10 | -1.95 – 3.95 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 15.4k | 16.9k | 14k | 14.9k – 15.8k |
| 2029 | 16.6k | 19.2k | 14.3k | 15.4k – 17.8k |
| 2031 | 17.8k | 21.2k | 14.8k | 15.8k – 19.8k |
| 2036 | 20.9k | 25.7k | 16.7k | 16.5k – 25.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed106.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 112.84 | 117.98 | 106.92 | 109.34 – 116.34 |
| 2029 | 124.72 | 133.32 | 114.81 | 115.5 – 133.95 |
| 2031 | 136.61 | 147.7 | 123.8 | 121.1 – 152.12 |
| 2036 | 166.31 | 182 | 148.21 | 131.81 – 200.81 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.84 | 18.27 | 15.41 | 16.32 – 17.36 |
| 2028 | 16.75 | 19.23 | 14.27 | 15.51 – 17.99 |
| 2030 | 16.66 | 19.86 | 13.46 | 14.77 – 18.55 |
| 2035 | 16.43 | 20.95 | 11.91 | 13.02 – 19.84 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.68 | 3.78 | -0.56 | 1.19 – 2.17 |
| 2029 | 3.28 | 6.91 | -0.61 | 2.32 – 4.24 |
| 2031 | 4.88 | 9.56 | -0.14 | 3.45 – 6.3 |
| 2036 | 8.87 | 15.49 | 1.77 | 5.98 – 11.75 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.65(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 39.3 | 41.37 | 37.52 | 38.09 – 40.52 |
| 2027 | 38.38 | 40.41 | 36.63 | 35.54 – 41.22 |
| 2029 | 37.46 | 40.08 | 35.2 | 33.21 – 41.72 |
| 2034 | 35.16 | 38.86 | 31.96 | 27.87 – 42.46 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.3bn | 1.4bn – 1.4bn |
| 2029 | 1.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.3bn | 1.3bn – 1.5bn |
| 2031 | 1.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.3bn | 1.2bn – 1.5bn |
| 2036 | 1.4bn | 1.4bn | 1.3bn | 1.1bn – 1.7bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.02 | 7.08 | 3.47 | 4.68 – 5.36 |
| 2028 | 5.02 | 8.6 | 2.34 | 4.34 – 5.71 |
| 2030 | 5.03 | 9.64 | 1.57 | 4.05 – 6 |
| 2035 | 5.03 | 11.56 | 0.14 | 3.41 – 6.65 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.5T | 3.6T | 3.3T | 3.4T – 3.6T |
| 2028 | 3.6T | 3.9T | 3.3T | 3.3T – 3.8T |
| 2030 | 3.7T | 4.1T | 3.3T | 3.3T – 4.1T |
| 2035 | 4T | 4.5T | 3.4T | 3.1T – 4.8T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.27 | 14.87 | 9.67 | 11.68 – 12.86 |
| 2028 | 12.66 | 17.16 | 8.16 | 11.36 – 13.96 |
| 2030 | 12.85 | 18.66 | 7.04 | 10.93 – 14.77 |
| 2035 | 13 | 21.22 | 4.78 | 9.66 – 16.34 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.8T | 4.1T | 3.6T | 3.7T – 4T |
| 2028 | 4T | 4.4T | 3.6T | 3.7T – 4.3T |
| 2030 | 4.3T | 4.8T | 3.7T | 3.8T – 4.7T |
| 2035 | 4.8T | 5.5T | 4T | 3.8T – 5.8T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.15 | 5.74 | 4.55 | 4.97 – 5.32 |
| 2029 | 5.24 | 6.27 | 4.2 | 4.83 – 5.64 |
| 2031 | 5.33 | 6.66 | 3.99 | 4.69 – 5.96 |
| 2036 | 5.55 | 7.44 | 3.66 | 4.37 – 6.73 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-05 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CHN · API docs
