Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Côte d'Ivoire: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 26/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 16 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 6.22 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.48, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.50) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-12% skill vs naive; realized ±3.5224 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Côte d'Ivoire: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.92 | 3.71 | -5.54 | -1.87 – 0.04 |
| 2029 | -0.55 | 7.46 | -8.55 | -2.23 – 1.14 |
| 2031 | -0.18 | 10.16 | -10.51 | -2.37 – 2.01 |
| 2036 | 0.75 | 15.36 | -13.87 | -2.4 – 3.89 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.65 | 35.11 | 26.79 | 29.52 – 31.78 |
| 2028 | 32.38 | 40.11 | 25.69 | 29.73 – 35.04 |
| 2030 | 34.12 | 44.09 | 25.48 | 29.96 – 38.27 |
| 2035 | 38.45 | 52.55 | 26.23 | 30.28 – 46.62 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed99.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 119.5bn | 129.9bn | 110.4bn | 115.8bn – 123.2bn |
| 2029 | 138bn | 156.1bn | 122.3bn | 127.8bn – 148.2bn |
| 2031 | 156.5bn | 179.9bn | 136.2bn | 138.7bn – 174.3bn |
| 2036 | 202.7bn | 235.8bn | 174.1bn | 160.7bn – 244.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.22 | 7.15 | 5.41 | 5.97 – 6.48 |
| 2029 | 6.23 | 7.85 | 4.83 | 5.66 – 6.8 |
| 2031 | 6.25 | 8.33 | 4.44 | 5.4 – 7.09 |
| 2036 | 6.28 | 9.23 | 3.72 | 4.78 – 7.77 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.5k | 3.8k | 3.2k | 3.4k – 3.6k |
| 2029 | 3.9k | 4.4k | 3.4k | 3.6k – 4.2k |
| 2031 | 4.3k | 5k | 3.7k | 3.8k – 4.8k |
| 2036 | 5.4k | 6.4k | 4.5k | 4.3k – 6.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 58.12 | 64.37 | 50.9 | 56.23 – 60.01 |
| 2029 | 64.15 | 74.99 | 51.65 | 59.41 – 68.9 |
| 2031 | 70.19 | 84.18 | 54.05 | 62.22 – 78.16 |
| 2036 | 85.28 | 105.06 | 62.46 | 67.59 – 102.97 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.35 | 30.37 | 20.32 | 24.17 – 26.52 |
| 2028 | 26.5 | 35.2 | 17.8 | 23.89 – 29.1 |
| 2030 | 27.65 | 38.88 | 16.41 | 23.71 – 31.58 |
| 2035 | 30.52 | 46.4 | 14.63 | 23.2 – 37.83 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.8 | 6.37 | -1.03 | 1.96 – 3.64 |
| 2029 | 5.14 | 11.33 | -1.49 | 3.52 – 6.76 |
| 2031 | 7.49 | 15.48 | -1.07 | 5.12 – 9.86 |
| 2036 | 13.35 | 24.65 | 1.24 | 8.71 – 17.99 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.55 | 21.84 | 17.56 | 18.91 – 20.19 |
| 2028 | 18.42 | 22.39 | 14.98 | 16.97 – 19.87 |
| 2030 | 17.29 | 22.42 | 12.85 | 15.18 – 19.41 |
| 2035 | 14.47 | 21.72 | 8.18 | 11.12 – 17.82 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 33.7m | 35.3m | 32.2m | 32.6m – 34.7m |
| 2029 | 34.9m | 36.6m | 33.4m | 32.3m – 37.5m |
| 2031 | 36.1m | 37.9m | 34.6m | 32m – 40.2m |
| 2036 | 39.2m | 41.1m | 37.5m | 31.1m – 47.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.65 | 11.03 | -1.88 | 2.67 – 4.63 |
| 2028 | 4.46 | 15 | -5.12 | 2.65 – 6.27 |
| 2030 | 5.27 | 15 | -7.1 | 2.79 – 7.76 |
| 2035 | 7.3 | 15 | -10 | 3.22 – 11.38 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.25 | 2.52 | 1.99 | 2.18 – 2.33 |
| 2028 | 2.12 | 2.57 | 1.66 | 1.94 – 2.29 |
| 2030 | 1.98 | 2.56 | 1.39 | 1.73 – 2.23 |
| 2035 | 1.63 | 2.46 | 0.8 | 1.24 – 2.02 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CIV · API docs
