Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Côte d'Ivoire: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 18/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 16 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 6.7 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.64, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.62) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-12% skill vs naive; realized ±0.6977 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Côte d'Ivoire: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-2.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.68 | 4.24 | -5.6 | -1.7 – 0.34 |
| 2028 | -0.84 | 7.68 | -9.36 | -2.63 – 0.94 |
| 2030 | -1 | 9.99 | -12 | -3.33 – 1.32 |
| 2035 | -1.41 | 14.15 | -16.97 | -4.81 – 1.99 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.65 | 35.11 | 26.79 | 29.52 – 31.78 |
| 2028 | 32.38 | 40.11 | 25.69 | 29.73 – 35.04 |
| 2030 | 34.12 | 44.09 | 25.48 | 29.96 – 38.27 |
| 2035 | 38.45 | 52.55 | 26.23 | 30.28 – 46.62 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed99.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.1bn | 116.2bn | 97.3bn | 102.8bn – 109.4bn |
| 2028 | 121.7bn | 139.3bn | 106.5bn | 112.7bn – 130.7bn |
| 2030 | 137.4bn | 160.1bn | 117.7bn | 121.8bn – 153bn |
| 2035 | 176.5bn | 208.7bn | 148.7bn | 139.9bn – 213.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.7 | 12 | 1.9 | 5.67 – 7.73 |
| 2028 | 7.2 | 12 | -1.11 | 5.26 – 9.15 |
| 2030 | 7.71 | 12 | -3.03 | 5.02 – 10.39 |
| 2035 | 8.97 | 12 | -6.22 | 4.61 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2k | 3.5k | 2.9k | 3.1k – 3.3k |
| 2028 | 3.6k | 4.1k | 3.1k | 3.3k – 3.8k |
| 2030 | 3.9k | 4.7k | 3.3k | 3.5k – 4.4k |
| 2035 | 4.9k | 5.9k | 4k | 3.9k – 5.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 60.67 | 66.23 | 54.27 | 58.79 – 62.55 |
| 2028 | 67.82 | 77.44 | 56.72 | 62.8 – 72.84 |
| 2030 | 74.97 | 87.38 | 60.64 | 66.45 – 83.48 |
| 2035 | 92.83 | 110.39 | 72.57 | 73.58 – 112.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.35 | 30.37 | 20.32 | 24.17 – 26.52 |
| 2028 | 26.5 | 35.2 | 17.8 | 23.89 – 29.1 |
| 2030 | 27.65 | 38.88 | 16.41 | 23.71 – 31.58 |
| 2035 | 30.52 | 46.4 | 14.63 | 23.2 – 37.83 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.11 | 2.5 | -4.98 | -1.93 – -0.29 |
| 2028 | -5 | 1.25 | -5 | -5 – -3.37 |
| 2030 | -5 | 3.07 | -5 | -5 – -2.81 |
| 2035 | -5 | 6.41 | -5 | -5 – -1.67 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.55 | 21.84 | 17.56 | 18.91 – 20.19 |
| 2028 | 18.42 | 22.39 | 14.98 | 16.97 – 19.87 |
| 2030 | 17.29 | 22.42 | 12.85 | 15.18 – 19.41 |
| 2035 | 14.47 | 21.72 | 8.18 | 11.12 – 17.82 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.5m | 34m | 31.1m | 31.5m – 33.5m |
| 2028 | 33.4m | 34.9m | 31.9m | 30.9m – 35.8m |
| 2030 | 34.2m | 35.8m | 32.7m | 30.3m – 38.1m |
| 2035 | 36.4m | 38.1m | 34.8m | 28.8m – 43.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.65 | 11.03 | -1.88 | 2.67 – 4.63 |
| 2028 | 4.46 | 15 | -5.12 | 2.65 – 6.27 |
| 2030 | 5.27 | 15 | -7.1 | 2.79 – 7.76 |
| 2035 | 7.3 | 15 | -10 | 3.22 – 11.38 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.25 | 2.52 | 1.99 | 2.18 – 2.33 |
| 2028 | 2.12 | 2.57 | 1.66 | 1.94 – 2.29 |
| 2030 | 1.98 | 2.56 | 1.39 | 1.73 – 2.23 |
| 2035 | 1.63 | 2.46 | 0.8 | 1.24 – 2.02 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CIV · API docs
