Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
CMQ: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 33/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.27 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.34, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.36) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive) · a track record, not a guarantee
CMQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.17 | 3.18 | -3.53 | -0.87 – 0.53 |
| 2029 | 0.08 | 5.89 | -5.73 | -1.16 – 1.31 |
| 2031 | 0.33 | 7.83 | -7.17 | -1.28 – 1.94 |
| 2036 | 0.96 | 11.57 | -9.65 | -1.36 – 3.29 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed575.6bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 600.7bn | 653.5bn | 554.9bn | 582bn – 619.3bn |
| 2029 | 665.4bn | 756.9bn | 586.1bn | 616.2bn – 714.6bn |
| 2031 | 730.1bn | 848.3bn | 627.7bn | 647.2bn – 813bn |
| 2036 | 891.9bn | 1.1T | 747.1bn | 706.9bn – 1.1T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.27 | 8.15 | -0.96 | 2.4 – 4.13 |
| 2029 | 2.21 | 10.67 | -5.12 | 0.69 – 3.73 |
| 2031 | 1.15 | 12 | -8.31 | -0.76 – 3.06 |
| 2036 | -1.5 | 12 | -10 | -4.31 – 1.32 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.9k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.3k | 10.1k | 8.5k | 9k – 9.6k |
| 2029 | 10.1k | 11.6k | 8.8k | 9.4k – 10.9k |
| 2031 | 11k | 12.9k | 9.3k | 9.7k – 12.2k |
| 2036 | 13.1k | 15.9k | 10.7k | 10.4k – 15.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 52.42 | 60.66 | 42.92 | 50.32 – 54.53 |
| 2029 | 54.07 | 68.33 | 37.61 | 49.28 – 58.85 |
| 2031 | 55.71 | 74.12 | 34.46 | 48.42 – 63 |
| 2036 | 59.82 | 85.86 | 29.77 | 46.24 – 73.39 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.31 | 7.51 | -1.19 | 2.32 – 4.29 |
| 2029 | 4.71 | 11.98 | -3.09 | 2.87 – 6.55 |
| 2031 | 6.11 | 15.5 | -3.96 | 3.54 – 8.68 |
| 2036 | 9.61 | 22.89 | -4.62 | 5.13 – 14.09 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64.4m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 64.2m | 67.2m | 61.4m | 62.2m – 66.2m |
| 2029 | 65.1m | 68.2m | 62.2m | 60.3m – 69.9m |
| 2031 | 66m | 69.1m | 63.1m | 58.5m – 73.5m |
| 2036 | 68.3m | 71.5m | 65.3m | 54.1m – 82.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CMQ · API docs
