Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
CMQ: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 22/100); the economy is in slowdown; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.92 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.56, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.54) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±0.2819 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
CMQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.28 | 4.57 | -2.01 | 0.59 – 1.97 |
| 2028 | 1.84 | 7.53 | -3.86 | 0.58 – 3.09 |
| 2030 | 2.39 | 9.75 | -4.96 | 0.7 – 4.09 |
| 2035 | 3.79 | 14.19 | -6.62 | 1.06 – 6.51 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed595.1bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 569.5bn | 623.4bn | 522.8bn | 551.8bn – 587.1bn |
| 2028 | 636.2bn | 729.5bn | 555.3bn | 589.1bn – 683.2bn |
| 2030 | 702.9bn | 823.4bn | 598.4bn | 623.1bn – 782.7bn |
| 2035 | 869.6bn | 1T | 721.9bn | 689.2bn – 1T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.92 | 12 | -10 | 0.84 – 6.99 |
| 2028 | 4.36 | 12 | -10 | -1.06 – 9.79 |
| 2030 | 4.81 | 12 | -10 | -2.31 – 11.92 |
| 2035 | 5.91 | 12 | -10 | -4.55 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.2k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.9k | 9.8k | 8.1k | 8.6k – 9.2k |
| 2028 | 9.8k | 11.3k | 8.5k | 9.1k – 10.5k |
| 2030 | 10.7k | 12.7k | 9k | 9.5k – 11.9k |
| 2035 | 13k | 15.8k | 10.6k | 10.3k – 15.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.42 | 60.66 | 42.92 | 50.31 – 54.53 |
| 2028 | 55.06 | 69.33 | 38.6 | 50.22 – 59.9 |
| 2030 | 57.7 | 76.12 | 36.45 | 50.25 – 65.15 |
| 2035 | 64.3 | 90.35 | 34.25 | 50 – 78.6 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.88 | 6.62 | -3.21 | 0.79 – 2.96 |
| 2028 | 1.32 | 9.53 | -5 | -0.57 – 3.2 |
| 2030 | 0.76 | 11.36 | -5 | -1.68 – 3.19 |
| 2035 | -0.64 | 14.35 | -5 | -4.13 – 2.84 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64.4m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 63.4m | 66.4m | 60.6m | 61.4m – 65.3m |
| 2028 | 64.1m | 67.2m | 61.3m | 59.4m – 68.9m |
| 2030 | 64.9m | 68m | 62.1m | 57.5m – 72.3m |
| 2035 | 66.8m | 70m | 63.9m | 53m – 80.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CMQ · API docs
