Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Cameroon: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 31/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.3 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.38, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.36) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-16% skill vs naive; realized ±0.0013 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Cameroon: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-5.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.77 | -2.53 | -5.02 | -4.09 – -3.46 |
| 2028 | -3.72 | -1.56 | -5.87 | -4.34 – -3.1 |
| 2030 | -3.66 | -0.88 | -6.44 | -4.52 – -2.8 |
| 2035 | -3.53 | 0.41 | -7.46 | -4.89 – -2.16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.46 | 17.59 | 8.02 | 11.53 – 13.39 |
| 2028 | 11.21 | 20.08 | 3.51 | 9.4 – 13.01 |
| 2030 | 9.95 | 21.41 | 0.02 | 7.52 – 12.38 |
| 2035 | 6.81 | 23.01 | 0 | 3.41 – 10.21 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed58.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.1bn | 67.2bn | 57.8bn | 60.2bn – 64.1bn |
| 2028 | 70.1bn | 78.8bn | 62.5bn | 64.9bn – 75.3bn |
| 2030 | 78bn | 89.2bn | 68.3bn | 69.1bn – 86.9bn |
| 2035 | 97.8bn | 113.7bn | 84bn | 77.5bn – 118.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.3 | 5.99 | 0.97 | 2.8 – 3.8 |
| 2028 | 3.53 | 8.19 | -0.51 | 2.58 – 4.48 |
| 2030 | 3.76 | 9.77 | -1.45 | 2.46 – 5.06 |
| 2035 | 4.34 | 12 | -3.03 | 2.23 – 6.45 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2k | 2.2k | 1.9k | 2k – 2.1k |
| 2028 | 2.2k | 2.5k | 2k | 2.1k – 2.4k |
| 2030 | 2.4k | 2.8k | 2.1k | 2.1k – 2.7k |
| 2035 | 2.9k | 3.4k | 2.4k | 2.3k – 3.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.39 | 46 | 36.08 | 40.02 – 42.76 |
| 2028 | 43.38 | 51.35 | 34.18 | 40.07 – 46.69 |
| 2030 | 45.36 | 55.66 | 33.48 | 40.15 – 50.58 |
| 2035 | 50.33 | 64.89 | 33.53 | 39.89 – 60.77 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.99 | 24.81 | 15.17 | 18.93 – 21.05 |
| 2028 | 19.38 | 27.73 | 11.03 | 17.17 – 21.59 |
| 2030 | 18.77 | 29.55 | 8 | 15.62 – 21.93 |
| 2035 | 17.25 | 32.5 | 2.01 | 12.16 – 22.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.15 | 7.8 | -1.85 | 2.06 – 4.23 |
| 2028 | 1.56 | 9.63 | -5 | -0.3 – 3.43 |
| 2030 | -0.02 | 10.4 | -5 | -2.41 – 2.37 |
| 2035 | -3.97 | 10.76 | -5 | -5 – -0.07 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.33 | 20.87 | 17.99 | 18.73 – 19.93 |
| 2028 | 19.37 | 22.04 | 17.05 | 17.94 – 20.8 |
| 2030 | 19.41 | 22.86 | 16.41 | 17.21 – 21.61 |
| 2035 | 19.51 | 24.4 | 15.28 | 15.46 – 23.56 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.7m | 31.1m | 28.4m | 28.8m – 30.6m |
| 2028 | 30.5m | 32m | 29.2m | 28.3m – 32.8m |
| 2030 | 31.3m | 32.8m | 30m | 27.8m – 34.9m |
| 2035 | 33.4m | 35m | 32m | 26.5m – 40.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.66 | 3.29 | -1.32 | 0.31 – 1 |
| 2028 | 0.81 | 5.37 | -2.62 | 0.19 – 1.43 |
| 2030 | 0.96 | 6.85 | -3.46 | 0.14 – 1.77 |
| 2035 | 1.33 | 9.67 | -4.92 | 0.08 – 2.59 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.3bn | 5.8bn | 4.7bn | 5.1bn – 5.4bn |
| 2027 | 5.7bn | 6.7bn | 4.7bn | 5.3bn – 6.2bn |
| 2029 | 6.2bn | 7.5bn | 4.9bn | 5.5bn – 6.9bn |
| 2034 | 7.4bn | 9.2bn | 5.6bn | 5.9bn – 8.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.28(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.16 | 6.91 | 3.41 | 4.81 – 5.51 |
| 2027 | 5.03 | 8.06 | 2 | 4.32 – 5.73 |
| 2029 | 4.96 | 8.87 | 1.05 | 3.96 – 5.96 |
| 2034 | 4.91 | 10.44 | 0 | 3.28 – 6.54 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.3bn | 5.8bn | 4.7bn | 5.1bn – 5.4bn |
| 2027 | 5.7bn | 6.7bn | 4.7bn | 5.3bn – 6.2bn |
| 2029 | 6.2bn | 7.5bn | 4.9bn | 5.5bn – 6.9bn |
| 2034 | 7.4bn | 9.2bn | 5.6bn | 5.9bn – 8.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.53 | 3.81 | 3.25 | 3.42 – 3.64 |
| 2028 | 3.38 | 3.87 | 2.89 | 3.13 – 3.63 |
| 2030 | 3.24 | 3.87 | 2.61 | 2.87 – 3.6 |
| 2035 | 2.87 | 3.77 | 1.98 | 2.28 – 3.47 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CMR · API docs
