Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Cameroon: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 30/100); the economy is in expansion; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.22 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.40, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.32) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-16% skill vs naive; realized ±3.1644 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Cameroon: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-5.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -5.16 | -3.71 | -6.6 | -5.53 – -4.78 |
| 2029 | -5.27 | -2.77 | -7.77 | -6.03 – -4.51 |
| 2031 | -5.38 | -2.16 | -8.6 | -6.47 – -4.29 |
| 2036 | -5.66 | -1.1 | -10.22 | -7.5 – -3.82 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.46 | 17.59 | 8.02 | 11.53 – 13.39 |
| 2028 | 11.21 | 20.08 | 3.51 | 9.4 – 13.01 |
| 2030 | 9.95 | 21.41 | 0.02 | 7.52 – 12.38 |
| 2035 | 6.81 | 23.01 | 0 | 3.41 – 10.21 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed58.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 68.9bn | 73.7bn | 64.7bn | 66.8bn – 71bn |
| 2029 | 78.3bn | 86.7bn | 71bn | 72.5bn – 84.1bn |
| 2031 | 87.7bn | 98.5bn | 78.3bn | 77.7bn – 97.6bn |
| 2036 | 111.2bn | 126.5bn | 97.9bn | 88.1bn – 134.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.22 | 3.85 | 2.67 | 3.06 – 3.38 |
| 2029 | 3.04 | 4.14 | 2.09 | 2.71 – 3.37 |
| 2031 | 2.87 | 4.29 | 1.64 | 2.4 – 3.34 |
| 2036 | 2.43 | 4.44 | 0.69 | 1.71 – 3.16 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.2k | 2.4k | 2.1k | 2.1k – 2.3k |
| 2029 | 2.4k | 2.7k | 2.2k | 2.3k – 2.6k |
| 2031 | 2.7k | 3k | 2.4k | 2.4k – 3k |
| 2036 | 3.2k | 3.7k | 2.8k | 2.6k – 3.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 39.56 | 43.69 | 34.8 | 38.3 – 40.83 |
| 2029 | 40.09 | 47.24 | 31.84 | 37.07 – 43.11 |
| 2031 | 40.62 | 49.84 | 29.97 | 35.95 – 45.28 |
| 2036 | 41.93 | 54.98 | 26.88 | 33.21 – 50.65 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.99 | 24.81 | 15.17 | 18.93 – 21.05 |
| 2028 | 19.38 | 27.73 | 11.03 | 17.17 – 21.59 |
| 2030 | 18.77 | 29.55 | 8 | 15.62 – 21.93 |
| 2035 | 17.25 | 32.5 | 2.01 | 12.16 – 22.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.7 | 8.35 | -1.28 | 2.61 – 4.79 |
| 2029 | 3.83 | 11.88 | -4.79 | 1.86 – 5.8 |
| 2031 | 3.97 | 14.36 | -5 | 1.35 – 6.59 |
| 2036 | 4.3 | 19 | -5 | 0.36 – 8.25 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.33 | 20.87 | 17.99 | 18.73 – 19.93 |
| 2028 | 19.37 | 22.04 | 17.05 | 17.94 – 20.8 |
| 2030 | 19.41 | 22.86 | 16.41 | 17.21 – 21.61 |
| 2035 | 19.51 | 24.4 | 15.28 | 15.46 – 23.56 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 30.4m | 31.9m | 29.1m | 29.5m – 31.4m |
| 2029 | 31.3m | 32.8m | 29.9m | 29m – 33.6m |
| 2031 | 32.1m | 33.7m | 30.7m | 28.5m – 35.8m |
| 2036 | 34.2m | 35.9m | 32.7m | 27.1m – 41.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.66 | 3.29 | -1.32 | 0.31 – 1 |
| 2028 | 0.81 | 5.37 | -2.62 | 0.19 – 1.43 |
| 2030 | 0.96 | 6.85 | -3.46 | 0.14 – 1.77 |
| 2035 | 1.33 | 9.67 | -4.92 | 0.08 – 2.59 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.3bn | 5.8bn | 4.7bn | 5.1bn – 5.4bn |
| 2027 | 5.7bn | 6.7bn | 4.7bn | 5.3bn – 6.2bn |
| 2029 | 6.2bn | 7.5bn | 4.9bn | 5.5bn – 6.9bn |
| 2034 | 7.4bn | 9.2bn | 5.6bn | 5.9bn – 8.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.28(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.16 | 6.91 | 3.41 | 4.81 – 5.51 |
| 2027 | 5.03 | 8.06 | 2 | 4.32 – 5.73 |
| 2029 | 4.96 | 8.87 | 1.05 | 3.96 – 5.96 |
| 2034 | 4.91 | 10.44 | 0 | 3.28 – 6.54 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.3bn | 5.8bn | 4.7bn | 5.1bn – 5.4bn |
| 2027 | 5.7bn | 6.7bn | 4.7bn | 5.3bn – 6.2bn |
| 2029 | 6.2bn | 7.5bn | 4.9bn | 5.5bn – 6.9bn |
| 2034 | 7.4bn | 9.2bn | 5.6bn | 5.9bn – 8.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.53 | 3.81 | 3.25 | 3.42 – 3.64 |
| 2028 | 3.38 | 3.87 | 2.89 | 3.13 – 3.63 |
| 2030 | 3.24 | 3.87 | 2.61 | 2.87 – 3.6 |
| 2035 | 2.87 | 3.77 | 1.98 | 2.28 – 3.47 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CMR · API docs
