Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
DR Congo: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 26/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.73 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.48, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.52) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2016-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+6% skill vs naive; realized ±7.1396 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
DR Congo: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2033, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -2.09 | 0.96 | -5.15 | -2.75 – -1.43 |
| 2029 | -2.28 | 3.02 | -7.57 | -3.46 – -1.09 |
| 2031 | -2.46 | 4.37 | -9.29 | -4.05 – -0.87 |
| 2036 | -2.92 | 6.74 | -12.58 | -5.36 – -0.48 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45.66 | 54.32 | 38.15 | 43.69 – 47.63 |
| 2028 | 50.15 | 65.15 | 37.14 | 45.6 – 54.7 |
| 2030 | 54.63 | 74.01 | 37.84 | 47.5 – 61.77 |
| 2035 | 65.85 | 93.25 | 42.11 | 51.4 – 80.3 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed91bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 134.8bn | 156.7bn | 115.8bn | 130bn – 139.5bn |
| 2029 | 163.6bn | 201.5bn | 130.7bn | 151.2bn – 176bn |
| 2031 | 192.4bn | 241.4bn | 149.9bn | 170.5bn – 214.2bn |
| 2036 | 264.4bn | 333.7bn | 204.3bn | 209.6bn – 319.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.73 | 9.35 | 2.59 | 5.03 – 6.43 |
| 2029 | 5.26 | 11.54 | -0.18 | 3.96 – 6.56 |
| 2031 | 4.79 | 12 | -2.23 | 3.06 – 6.53 |
| 2036 | 3.63 | 12 | -6.31 | 1.14 – 6.12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed806.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.2k | 1.4k | 1k | 1.2k – 1.3k |
| 2029 | 1.4k | 1.8k | 1.1k | 1.3k – 1.6k |
| 2031 | 1.7k | 2.2k | 1.2k | 1.5k – 1.9k |
| 2036 | 2.3k | 3k | 1.7k | 1.8k – 2.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 26.21 | 29.02 | 22.98 | 25.36 – 27.06 |
| 2029 | 29.44 | 34.29 | 23.84 | 27.26 – 31.62 |
| 2031 | 32.67 | 38.93 | 25.44 | 28.96 – 36.38 |
| 2036 | 40.74 | 49.6 | 30.52 | 32.29 – 49.19 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45.93 | 55.34 | 36.53 | 43.76 – 48.11 |
| 2028 | 49.96 | 66.25 | 33.67 | 45.07 – 54.85 |
| 2030 | 53.99 | 75.02 | 32.96 | 46.45 – 61.53 |
| 2035 | 64.06 | 93.81 | 34.32 | 49.26 – 78.87 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.89(2016)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.56 | 16.44 | -5 | -0.56 – 5.68 |
| 2029 | -3.18 | 20.86 | -5 | -5 – 2.3 |
| 2031 | -5 | 26.03 | -5 | -5 – 2.28 |
| 2036 | -5 | 38.89 | -5 | -5 – 5.53 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.86 | 38.89 | 18.29 | 25.83 – 29.88 |
| 2028 | 25.89 | 45.01 | 9.32 | 21.92 – 29.86 |
| 2030 | 23.92 | 48.6 | 2.53 | 18.48 – 29.36 |
| 2035 | 19 | 53.9 | 0 | 10.98 – 27.03 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed112.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 108.5m | 113.6m | 103.7m | 105.1m – 111.8m |
| 2029 | 105.4m | 111.6m | 99.6m | 97.6m – 113.2m |
| 2031 | 102.3m | 110.3m | 94.8m | 90.7m – 113.9m |
| 2036 | 94.5m | 105.9m | 83.9m | 74.9m – 114.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.41 | 6.12 | -0.38 | 1.9 – 2.91 |
| 2028 | 2.37 | 8.8 | -2.45 | 1.45 – 3.29 |
| 2030 | 2.33 | 10.64 | -3.89 | 1.11 – 3.56 |
| 2035 | 2.24 | 13.99 | -6.56 | 0.42 – 4.07 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6bn | 7.9bn | 4.2bn | 5.7bn – 6.4bn |
| 2026 | 8.3bn | 11.5bn | 5bn | 7.4bn – 9.2bn |
| 2028 | 10.5bn | 14.7bn | 6.3bn | 9bn – 12bn |
| 2033 | 16bn | 22bn | 10.1bn | 12.6bn – 19.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.69(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1.48 | 2.36 | 0.61 | 1.33 – 1.64 |
| 2026 | 1.24 | 2.75 | 0 | 0.95 – 1.53 |
| 2028 | 1.12 | 3.07 | 0 | 0.73 – 1.51 |
| 2033 | 1.02 | 3.79 | 0 | 0.43 – 1.61 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6bn | 7.9bn | 4.2bn | 5.7bn – 6.4bn |
| 2026 | 8.3bn | 11.5bn | 5bn | 7.4bn – 9.2bn |
| 2028 | 10.5bn | 14.7bn | 6.3bn | 9bn – 12bn |
| 2033 | 16bn | 22bn | 10.1bn | 12.6bn – 19.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.23 | 4.78 | 3.67 | 4.07 – 4.38 |
| 2028 | 3.81 | 4.77 | 2.85 | 3.48 – 4.14 |
| 2030 | 3.39 | 4.64 | 2.15 | 2.93 – 3.86 |
| 2035 | 2.35 | 4.11 | 0.59 | 1.71 – 3 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-05 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/COD · API docs
