Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Congo: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 49/100); the economy is in expansion; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.85 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.02, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment -0.02) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±0.3509 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Congo: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2022, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed5.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -8.28 | 12.68 | -29.23 | -12.68 – -3.87 |
| 2028 | -14.63 | 21.66 | -30 | -22.73 – -6.52 |
| 2030 | -20.98 | 25.87 | -30 | -30 – -9.74 |
| 2035 | -30 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -11.68 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed48.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.35 | 66.82 | 30.47 | 43.81 – 50.88 |
| 2028 | 45.99 | 79.71 | 16.76 | 38.97 – 53.02 |
| 2030 | 44.64 | 88.17 | 6.9 | 34.85 – 54.43 |
| 2035 | 41.25 | 102.82 | 0 | 25.85 – 56.64 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.5bn | 20bn | 13.4bn | 15.8bn – 17.2bn |
| 2028 | 17bn | 23.1bn | 11.7bn | 15.5bn – 18.5bn |
| 2030 | 17.5bn | 25.4bn | 10.7bn | 15.2bn – 19.9bn |
| 2035 | 18.9bn | 30bn | 9.2bn | 14.5bn – 23.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.85 | 9.56 | -1.1 | 2.84 – 4.86 |
| 2028 | 5.68 | 12 | -2.89 | 3.75 – 7.6 |
| 2030 | 7.5 | 12 | -3.56 | 4.77 – 10.23 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -3.65 | 7.07 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.5k | 3.1k | 2k | 2.4k – 2.6k |
| 2028 | 2.5k | 3.5k | 1.5k | 2.2k – 2.7k |
| 2030 | 2.4k | 3.8k | 1.2k | 2.1k – 2.8k |
| 2035 | 2.3k | 4.3k | 675.08 | 1.7k – 2.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed80.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 102.4 | 125.29 | 75.99 | 97.24 – 107.56 |
| 2028 | 106.41 | 146.05 | 60.67 | 95.2 – 117.62 |
| 2030 | 110.42 | 161.59 | 51.36 | 93.71 – 127.12 |
| 2035 | 120.43 | 192.81 | 36.92 | 90.03 – 150.83 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 44.79 | 52.45 | 37.12 | 42.9 – 46.68 |
| 2028 | 47.07 | 60.35 | 33.79 | 42.78 – 51.36 |
| 2030 | 49.35 | 66.5 | 32.21 | 42.78 – 55.93 |
| 2035 | 55.06 | 79.31 | 30.82 | 42.54 – 67.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.19 | 4.26 | -0.03 | 1.69 – 2.68 |
| 2028 | 1.22 | 4.81 | -2.63 | 0.37 – 2.08 |
| 2030 | 0.25 | 4.89 | -4.72 | -0.85 – 1.36 |
| 2035 | -2.16 | 4.4 | -5 | -3.96 – -0.36 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.4 | 35.26 | 26.2 | 29.23 – 31.58 |
| 2028 | 33.62 | 42.03 | 26.33 | 30.8 – 36.43 |
| 2030 | 36.83 | 47.69 | 27.43 | 32.34 – 41.33 |
| 2035 | 44.87 | 60.22 | 31.57 | 35.5 – 54.24 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.4m | 6.7m | 6.2m | 6.2m – 6.6m |
| 2028 | 6.6m | 6.9m | 6.3m | 6.1m – 7.1m |
| 2030 | 6.8m | 7.1m | 6.5m | 6m – 7.5m |
| 2035 | 7.2m | 7.5m | 6.9m | 5.7m – 8.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 7.57 | -3.92 | 0.17 – 1.84 |
| 2028 | 3.62 | 14.99 | -4.9 | 2.03 – 5.22 |
| 2030 | 6.25 | 15 | -4.76 | 3.91 – 8.58 |
| 2035 | 12.8 | 15 | -2.76 | 8.16 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed758.6m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 754.6m | 1.2bn | 264.8m | 667.6m – 841.7m |
| 2027 | 746.8m | 1.6bn | 0 | 581.1m – 912.5m |
| 2029 | 739m | 1.8bn | 0 | 512.2m – 965.7m |
| 2034 | 719.4m | 2.3bn | 0 | 367.2m – 1.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6(2021)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.56 | 6.19 | 0 | 1.97 – 3.16 |
| 2024 | 3.7 | 9.99 | 0 | 2.56 – 4.84 |
| 2026 | 4.26 | 12.38 | 0 | 2.68 – 5.85 |
| 2031 | 4.71 | 16.19 | 0 | 2.2 – 7.22 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed758.6m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 754.6m | 1.2bn | 264.8m | 667.6m – 841.7m |
| 2027 | 746.8m | 1.6bn | 0 | 581.1m – 912.5m |
| 2029 | 739m | 1.8bn | 0 | 512.2m – 965.7m |
| 2034 | 719.4m | 2.3bn | 0 | 367.2m – 1.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.35 | 20.72 | 17.97 | 18.75 – 19.95 |
| 2028 | 18.28 | 20.66 | 15.91 | 16.93 – 19.64 |
| 2030 | 17.22 | 20.29 | 14.15 | 15.27 – 19.18 |
| 2035 | 14.57 | 18.91 | 10.23 | 11.55 – 17.59 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/COG · API docs
