Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Colombia: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 61/100); the economy is in slowdown; 3 turning-point signals flagged; 20 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.05 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.22, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment -0.06) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-04-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±6.7191 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Colombia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-2.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -2.08 | 1.26 | -5.42 | -2.8 – -1.37 |
| 2029 | -1.25 | 4.54 | -7.04 | -2.49 – -0.01 |
| 2031 | -0.41 | 7.06 | -7.89 | -2.02 – 1.19 |
| 2036 | 1.68 | 12.25 | -8.89 | -0.75 – 4.1 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.12 | 20.2 | 10.72 | 14.16 – 16.09 |
| 2028 | 15.4 | 24.2 | 7.78 | 13.41 – 17.4 |
| 2030 | 15.68 | 27.04 | 5.84 | 12.8 – 18.56 |
| 2035 | 16.38 | 32.44 | 2.46 | 11.46 – 21.29 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed457.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 576.5bn | 658.1bn | 505.8bn | 557.6bn – 595.4bn |
| 2029 | 669.5bn | 810.8bn | 547bn | 620bn – 719.1bn |
| 2031 | 762.6bn | 945bn | 604.4bn | 676bn – 849.1bn |
| 2036 | 995.1bn | 1.3T | 771.5bn | 788.7bn – 1.2T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.05 | 8.11 | -3.19 | 1.01 – 3.09 |
| 2029 | 1.34 | 11.82 | -7.75 | -0.47 – 3.15 |
| 2031 | 0.63 | 12 | -10 | -1.71 – 2.96 |
| 2036 | -1.16 | 12 | -10 | -4.54 – 2.22 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.7k | 12.3k | 9.3k | 10.4k – 11.1k |
| 2029 | 12.4k | 15.1k | 9.9k | 11.4k – 13.3k |
| 2031 | 14k | 17.6k | 10.8k | 12.4k – 15.6k |
| 2036 | 18k | 23.1k | 13.6k | 14.3k – 21.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 61.98 | 72.04 | 50.37 | 59.44 – 64.51 |
| 2029 | 64.13 | 81.55 | 44.02 | 58.37 – 69.88 |
| 2031 | 66.28 | 88.77 | 40.32 | 57.51 – 75.04 |
| 2036 | 71.65 | 103.47 | 34.94 | 55.29 – 88.01 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.39 | 26.37 | 14.41 | 19.15 – 21.63 |
| 2028 | 20.4 | 30.76 | 10.04 | 17.83 – 22.96 |
| 2030 | 20.41 | 33.78 | 7.04 | 16.73 – 24.09 |
| 2035 | 20.43 | 39.34 | 1.52 | 14.27 – 26.6 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.44 | 14.3 | -1.98 | 4.6 – 8.29 |
| 2029 | 7.51 | 21.12 | -5 | 4.13 – 10.88 |
| 2031 | 8.57 | 26.14 | -5 | 3.99 – 13.15 |
| 2036 | 11.22 | 36.07 | -5 | 3.91 – 18.52 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.3 | 18.05 | 12.91 | 14.66 – 15.93 |
| 2028 | 13.54 | 18.31 | 9.4 | 12.21 – 14.87 |
| 2030 | 11.78 | 17.95 | 6.44 | 9.96 – 13.61 |
| 2035 | 7.39 | 16.11 | 0 | 4.97 – 9.82 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 53.2m | 55.7m | 50.9m | 51.5m – 54.8m |
| 2029 | 53.2m | 55.7m | 50.8m | 49.2m – 57.1m |
| 2031 | 53.1m | 55.6m | 50.8m | 47.1m – 59.2m |
| 2036 | 53.1m | 55.6m | 50.7m | 42.1m – 64.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.58 | 9.07 | -7.82 | -1.81 – 0.64 |
| 2028 | -1.89 | 14.83 | -10 | -4.06 – 0.29 |
| 2030 | -3.19 | 15 | -10 | -6.14 – -0.23 |
| 2035 | -6.44 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -1.6 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 67.2bn | 72.1bn | 62.3bn | 65.1bn – 69.3bn |
| 2028 | 72.3bn | 80.8bn | 63.9bn | 67bn – 77.7bn |
| 2030 | 77.5bn | 88.4bn | 66.5bn | 68.7bn – 86.2bn |
| 2035 | 90.2bn | 105.7bn | 74.7bn | 71.5bn – 109bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.46 | 11.26 | 3.66 | 6.76 – 8.16 |
| 2028 | 7.65 | 14.23 | 1.08 | 6.28 – 9.03 |
| 2030 | 7.75 | 16.24 | 0 | 5.83 – 9.67 |
| 2035 | 7.82 | 19.83 | 0 | 4.73 – 10.91 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 67.9bn | 72.7bn | 63.1bn | 65.8bn – 70bn |
| 2028 | 73.2bn | 81.5bn | 64.9bn | 67.8bn – 78.6bn |
| 2030 | 78.5bn | 89.2bn | 67.7bn | 69.5bn – 87.4bn |
| 2035 | 91.6bn | 106.8bn | 76.4bn | 72.6bn – 110.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.11 | 10.83 | 5.39 | 7.56 – 8.65 |
| 2029 | 6.32 | 11.04 | 1.61 | 5.3 – 7.35 |
| 2031 | 4.54 | 10.63 | 0 | 3.25 – 5.84 |
| 2036 | 0.08 | 8.69 | 0 | 0 – 1.56 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/COL · API docs
