Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Comoros: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 34/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.45 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.32, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.40) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±3.0223 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Comoros: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2033, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-4.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -4.41 | -2.19 | -6.63 | -4.93 – -3.88 |
| 2029 | -4.83 | -0.98 | -8.67 | -5.84 – -3.81 |
| 2031 | -5.24 | -0.28 | -10.21 | -6.67 – -3.81 |
| 2036 | -6.28 | 0.74 | -13.3 | -8.72 – -3.85 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.99 | 16.26 | 2.69 | 7.81 – 10.17 |
| 2028 | 8.37 | 20.96 | 0 | 6.17 – 10.57 |
| 2030 | 7.75 | 24.01 | 0 | 4.81 – 10.69 |
| 2035 | 6.2 | 29.19 | 0 | 1.92 – 10.47 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.9bn | 2.1bn | 1.8bn | 1.8bn – 2bn |
| 2029 | 2.1bn | 2.4bn | 1.9bn | 2bn – 2.3bn |
| 2031 | 2.4bn | 2.8bn | 2bn | 2.1bn – 2.6bn |
| 2036 | 2.9bn | 3.5bn | 2.5bn | 2.3bn – 3.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.45 | 4.87 | 4.09 | 4.31 – 4.59 |
| 2029 | 5.25 | 5.98 | 4.63 | 4.87 – 5.64 |
| 2031 | 6.06 | 6.99 | 5.25 | 5.37 – 6.75 |
| 2036 | 8.08 | 9.4 | 6.93 | 6.4 – 9.75 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2k | 2.3k | 1.8k | 2k – 2.1k |
| 2029 | 2.2k | 2.6k | 1.8k | 2k – 2.4k |
| 2031 | 2.4k | 2.9k | 1.9k | 2.1k – 2.6k |
| 2036 | 2.8k | 3.5k | 2.1k | 2.2k – 3.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 33.97 | 37.91 | 29.43 | 32.82 – 35.12 |
| 2029 | 37.11 | 43.93 | 29.25 | 34.28 – 39.94 |
| 2031 | 40.26 | 49.06 | 30.1 | 35.68 – 44.83 |
| 2036 | 48.12 | 60.56 | 33.75 | 38.13 – 58.1 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.16 | 37.98 | 26.33 | 30.75 – 33.56 |
| 2028 | 33.29 | 43.38 | 23.21 | 30.15 – 36.44 |
| 2030 | 34.43 | 47.45 | 21.41 | 29.68 – 39.18 |
| 2035 | 37.28 | 55.69 | 18.86 | 28.49 – 46.06 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.25(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.14 | 16.52 | -5 | 1.32 – 6.95 |
| 2029 | 4.77 | 26.22 | -5 | -0.22 – 9.75 |
| 2031 | 5.4 | 33.1 | -5 | -1.17 – 11.97 |
| 2036 | 6.98 | 46.15 | -5 | -2.82 – 16.78 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.75 | 14.64 | 9.24 | 11.15 – 12.35 |
| 2028 | 11.48 | 16.48 | 7.14 | 10.21 – 12.74 |
| 2030 | 11.2 | 17.66 | 5.6 | 9.38 – 13.02 |
| 2035 | 10.52 | 19.66 | 2.6 | 7.53 – 13.51 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed882.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 928.8k | 972.6k | 888k | 900k – 957.6k |
| 2029 | 980.6k | 1m | 937.6k | 908.1k – 1.1m |
| 2031 | 1m | 1.1m | 987.2k | 915.3k – 1.1m |
| 2036 | 1.2m | 1.2m | 1.1m | 921.1k – 1.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.35 | 3.76 | -0.46 | 1.03 – 1.67 |
| 2028 | 2.85 | 7.02 | -0.29 | 2.19 – 3.5 |
| 2030 | 4.34 | 9.73 | 0.3 | 3.32 – 5.36 |
| 2035 | 8.08 | 15 | 2.36 | 5.84 – 10.33 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed406.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 432.1m | 521m | 343.2m | 411.6m – 452.6m |
| 2028 | 496.6m | 650.6m | 342.7m | 449.2m – 544m |
| 2030 | 561.2m | 759.9m | 362.4m | 485.9m – 636.5m |
| 2035 | 722.5m | 1bn | 441.5m | 563.9m – 881.2m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.61(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 7.66 | 11.4 | 3.93 | 6.97 – 8.36 |
| 2026 | 7.73 | 14.2 | 1.25 | 6.37 – 9.09 |
| 2028 | 7.76 | 16.12 | 0 | 5.86 – 9.66 |
| 2033 | 7.78 | 19.61 | 0 | 4.73 – 10.84 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed409.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 434.9m | 524.1m | 345.7m | 414.3m – 455.5m |
| 2028 | 500.2m | 654.7m | 345.6m | 452.5m – 547.8m |
| 2030 | 565.4m | 764.9m | 365.9m | 489.7m – 641.2m |
| 2035 | 728.6m | 1bn | 446.4m | 568.8m – 888.4m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.68 | 4.06 | 3.29 | 3.56 – 3.79 |
| 2028 | 3.39 | 4.05 | 2.73 | 3.12 – 3.65 |
| 2030 | 3.1 | 3.95 | 2.25 | 2.72 – 3.48 |
| 2035 | 2.38 | 3.59 | 1.18 | 1.82 – 2.95 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/COM · API docs
