Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Cabo Verde: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 45/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 16 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 7.95 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.10, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.14) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+8% skill vs naive; realized ±3.145 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Cabo Verde: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.08 | 19.66 | -9.51 | 2.02 – 8.13 |
| 2028 | 8.03 | 30 | -17.23 | 2.49 – 13.57 |
| 2030 | 10.98 | 30 | -21.62 | 3.45 – 18.51 |
| 2035 | 18.36 | 30 | -27.75 | 6.01 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.09 | 62.96 | 24 | 38.43 – 45.74 |
| 2028 | 42.31 | 78.47 | 10.98 | 35.12 – 49.51 |
| 2030 | 42.54 | 89.21 | 2.09 | 32.47 – 52.61 |
| 2035 | 43.1 | 109.11 | 0 | 26.77 – 59.42 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2bn | 3.7bn | 2.8bn | 3.1bn – 3.3bn |
| 2028 | 3.6bn | 4.5bn | 2.9bn | 3.4bn – 3.9bn |
| 2030 | 4.1bn | 5.2bn | 3.1bn | 3.6bn – 4.5bn |
| 2035 | 5.1bn | 6.7bn | 3.7bn | 4bn – 6.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.95 | 12 | -10 | 3.3 – 12 |
| 2028 | 11.58 | 12 | -10 | 3.2 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 0.94 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -4.21 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.1k | 7k | 5.3k | 5.9k – 6.3k |
| 2028 | 6.8k | 8.5k | 5.4k | 6.3k – 7.4k |
| 2030 | 7.6k | 9.7k | 5.7k | 6.7k – 8.4k |
| 2035 | 9.4k | 12.5k | 6.8k | 7.5k – 11.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed95.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 100.68 | 129.63 | 67.27 | 94.61 – 106.74 |
| 2028 | 100.04 | 150.18 | 42.18 | 87.52 – 112.55 |
| 2030 | 99.39 | 164.13 | 24.7 | 81.48 – 117.31 |
| 2035 | 97.79 | 189.34 | 0 | 68.06 – 127.52 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.79 | 58.02 | 47.56 | 51.15 – 54.43 |
| 2028 | 51.66 | 60.72 | 42.61 | 47.8 – 55.53 |
| 2030 | 50.54 | 62.23 | 38.85 | 44.71 – 56.37 |
| 2035 | 47.73 | 64.25 | 31.2 | 37.56 – 57.89 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.16 | 10.45 | -4.64 | 1.5 – 4.83 |
| 2028 | 4.98 | 17.59 | -5 | 1.94 – 8.01 |
| 2030 | 6.79 | 23.07 | -5 | 2.64 – 10.94 |
| 2035 | 11.32 | 34.35 | -5 | 4.41 – 18.24 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed527.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 526.6k | 551.5k | 503.5k | 510.3k – 543k |
| 2028 | 529.3k | 554.4k | 506.1k | 490.2k – 568.5k |
| 2030 | 532k | 557.2k | 508.7k | 471.6k – 592.4k |
| 2035 | 538.8k | 564.2k | 515.1k | 427k – 650.5k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.69(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.09 | 15 | -10 | 2.4 – 7.78 |
| 2028 | 6.27 | 15 | -10 | 1.45 – 11.1 |
| 2030 | 7.46 | 15 | -10 | 1.02 – 13.89 |
| 2035 | 10.41 | 15 | -10 | 0.49 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4bn | 1.7bn | 1bn | 1.3bn – 1.4bn |
| 2028 | 1.6bn | 2.2bn | 1bn | 1.5bn – 1.8bn |
| 2030 | 1.9bn | 2.6bn | 1.1bn | 1.6bn – 2.1bn |
| 2035 | 2.5bn | 3.6bn | 1.5bn | 2bn – 3.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.69(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.12 | 10.65 | 5.58 | 7.6 – 8.63 |
| 2028 | 7.43 | 11.83 | 3.04 | 6.4 – 8.46 |
| 2030 | 7.1 | 12.77 | 1.42 | 5.66 – 8.54 |
| 2035 | 6.83 | 14.86 | 0 | 4.51 – 9.15 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.3bn | 1.7bn | 1bn | 1.3bn – 1.4bn |
| 2028 | 1.6bn | 2.2bn | 1bn | 1.4bn – 1.7bn |
| 2030 | 1.8bn | 2.6bn | 1.1bn | 1.6bn – 2.1bn |
| 2035 | 2.4bn | 3.4bn | 1.3bn | 1.8bn – 2.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.37 | 12.62 | 10.11 | 10.99 – 11.74 |
| 2028 | 10.22 | 12.39 | 8.05 | 9.4 – 11.04 |
| 2030 | 9.07 | 11.87 | 6.27 | 7.92 – 10.23 |
| 2035 | 6.21 | 10.17 | 2.25 | 4.61 – 7.81 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CPV · API docs
