Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Costa Rica: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 27/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.78 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.46, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.54) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-08-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-12% skill vs naive; realized ±1.4773 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Costa Rica: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.39 | 1.82 | -2.6 | -0.86 – 0.08 |
| 2028 | 0.03 | 3.86 | -3.8 | -0.8 – 0.86 |
| 2030 | 0.45 | 5.39 | -4.49 | -0.64 – 1.54 |
| 2035 | 1.5 | 8.48 | -5.49 | -0.17 – 3.16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.77 | 45.4 | 34.89 | 38.33 – 41.21 |
| 2028 | 41.61 | 51.37 | 33.15 | 38.22 – 45 |
| 2030 | 43.45 | 56.04 | 32.53 | 38.17 – 48.72 |
| 2035 | 48.04 | 65.86 | 32.6 | 37.81 – 58.27 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed102.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 110.1bn | 121.6bn | 100.2bn | 106.7bn – 113.5bn |
| 2028 | 127.7bn | 147.5bn | 110.5bn | 118.2bn – 137.1bn |
| 2030 | 145.2bn | 170.9bn | 123bn | 128.7bn – 161.7bn |
| 2035 | 189.1bn | 225.4bn | 157.7bn | 149.9bn – 228.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.78 | 12 | -5.07 | 2.81 – 6.75 |
| 2028 | 5.29 | 12 | -10 | 1.76 – 8.83 |
| 2030 | 5.81 | 12 | -10 | 1.11 – 10.51 |
| 2035 | 7.11 | 12 | -10 | -0.02 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.3k | 23.5k | 19.3k | 20.6k – 21.9k |
| 2028 | 24.5k | 28.4k | 21.1k | 22.7k – 26.3k |
| 2030 | 27.8k | 32.8k | 23.4k | 24.6k – 30.9k |
| 2035 | 35.9k | 43k | 29.7k | 28.4k – 43.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed61.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.15 | 69.95 | 53.15 | 59.96 – 64.35 |
| 2028 | 65.66 | 79.17 | 50.07 | 60.43 – 70.89 |
| 2030 | 69.16 | 86.6 | 49.04 | 60.95 – 77.38 |
| 2035 | 77.93 | 102.59 | 49.47 | 61.66 – 94.19 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.9 | 40.22 | 25.59 | 31.26 – 34.55 |
| 2028 | 33.42 | 46.09 | 20.76 | 29.88 – 36.97 |
| 2030 | 33.95 | 50.3 | 17.59 | 28.73 – 39.17 |
| 2035 | 35.25 | 58.38 | 12.12 | 26.07 – 44.43 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.3 | 9.59 | -5 | -1.78 – 2.38 |
| 2028 | 0.78 | 16.87 | -5 | -2.84 – 4.39 |
| 2030 | 1.25 | 22.03 | -5 | -3.46 – 5.96 |
| 2035 | 2.44 | 31.83 | -5 | -4.47 – 9.34 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.25(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.02 | 17.63 | 14.63 | 15.53 – 16.52 |
| 2028 | 15.49 | 18.27 | 13.08 | 14.34 – 16.63 |
| 2030 | 14.95 | 18.54 | 11.84 | 13.24 – 16.66 |
| 2035 | 13.61 | 18.68 | 9.21 | 10.71 – 16.51 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.1m | 5.4m | 4.9m | 5m – 5.3m |
| 2028 | 5.2m | 5.4m | 4.9m | 4.8m – 5.6m |
| 2030 | 5.2m | 5.4m | 5m | 4.6m – 5.8m |
| 2035 | 5.3m | 5.5m | 5m | 4.2m – 6.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.44 | 15 | -6.79 | 1.68 – 5.2 |
| 2028 | 3.5 | 15 | -10 | 0.38 – 6.62 |
| 2030 | 3.56 | 15 | -10 | -0.54 – 7.66 |
| 2035 | 3.72 | 15 | -10 | -2.27 – 9.71 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.8bn | 22.6bn | 15.1bn | 17.9bn – 19.7bn |
| 2028 | 23.1bn | 29.6bn | 16.6bn | 21bn – 25.2bn |
| 2030 | 27.3bn | 35.8bn | 18.9bn | 23.9bn – 30.8bn |
| 2035 | 38bn | 49.9bn | 26.1bn | 30.1bn – 45.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.45 | 5.61 | 3.3 | 4.2 – 4.7 |
| 2028 | 4.21 | 6.2 | 2.21 | 3.7 – 4.71 |
| 2030 | 4.08 | 6.66 | 1.5 | 3.36 – 4.81 |
| 2035 | 3.99 | 7.63 | 0.34 | 2.79 – 5.18 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.8bn | 22.6bn | 15.1bn | 17.9bn – 19.7bn |
| 2028 | 23.1bn | 29.6bn | 16.6bn | 21bn – 25.2bn |
| 2030 | 27.3bn | 35.8bn | 18.9bn | 23.9bn – 30.8bn |
| 2035 | 38bn | 49.9bn | 26.1bn | 30.1bn – 45.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.68 | 7.28 | 2.09 | 4.21 – 5.16 |
| 2028 | 0.37 | 4.86 | 0 | 0 – 1.1 |
| 2030 | 0 | 5.8 | 0 | 0 – 0.97 |
| 2035 | 0 | 8.21 | 0 | 0 – 1.42 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CRI · API docs
