Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Costa Rica: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 37/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 20 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.25 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.26, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.40) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-02-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-12% skill vs naive; realized ±4.7062 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Costa Rica: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.41 | 0.8 | -3.62 | -1.88 – -0.93 |
| 2029 | -1.22 | 2.61 | -5.05 | -2.06 – -0.38 |
| 2031 | -1.03 | 3.91 | -5.97 | -2.12 – 0.06 |
| 2036 | -0.56 | 6.43 | -7.55 | -2.15 – 1.03 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.77 | 45.4 | 34.89 | 38.33 – 41.21 |
| 2028 | 41.61 | 51.37 | 33.15 | 38.22 – 45 |
| 2030 | 43.45 | 56.04 | 32.53 | 38.17 – 48.72 |
| 2035 | 48.04 | 65.86 | 32.6 | 37.81 – 58.27 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed102.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 115.7bn | 126.7bn | 106.1bn | 112.1bn – 119.3bn |
| 2029 | 130.5bn | 149.6bn | 113.9bn | 120.8bn – 140.1bn |
| 2031 | 145.2bn | 170bn | 123.8bn | 128.8bn – 161.7bn |
| 2036 | 182.2bn | 217.2bn | 151.9bn | 144.4bn – 220bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.25 | 5.44 | 1.35 | 2.83 – 3.67 |
| 2029 | 2.37 | 6.17 | -0.91 | 1.63 – 3.12 |
| 2031 | 1.5 | 6.4 | -2.74 | 0.56 – 2.44 |
| 2036 | -0.69 | 6.24 | -6.69 | -2 – 0.63 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 21.2k | 23.5k | 19.2k | 20.5k – 21.9k |
| 2029 | 23.5k | 27.4k | 20.1k | 21.8k – 25.3k |
| 2031 | 25.8k | 30.9k | 21.5k | 22.9k – 28.8k |
| 2036 | 31.7k | 38.8k | 25.5k | 25.1k – 38.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed61.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 62.17 | 69.95 | 53.19 | 59.98 – 64.36 |
| 2029 | 64.32 | 77.8 | 48.77 | 59.16 – 69.48 |
| 2031 | 66.46 | 83.86 | 46.39 | 58.47 – 74.46 |
| 2036 | 71.83 | 96.43 | 43.44 | 56.55 – 87.11 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.9 | 40.22 | 25.59 | 31.26 – 34.55 |
| 2028 | 33.42 | 46.09 | 20.76 | 29.88 – 36.97 |
| 2030 | 33.95 | 50.3 | 17.59 | 28.73 – 39.17 |
| 2035 | 35.25 | 58.38 | 12.12 | 26.07 – 44.43 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.49 | 8.73 | -5 | -2.55 – 1.57 |
| 2029 | -0.95 | 15.02 | -5 | -4.53 – 2.64 |
| 2031 | -1.4 | 19.21 | -5 | -5 – 3.28 |
| 2036 | -2.54 | 26.61 | -5 | -5 – 4.33 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.25(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.02 | 17.63 | 14.63 | 15.53 – 16.52 |
| 2028 | 15.49 | 18.27 | 13.08 | 14.34 – 16.63 |
| 2030 | 14.95 | 18.54 | 11.84 | 13.24 – 16.66 |
| 2035 | 13.61 | 18.68 | 9.21 | 10.71 – 16.51 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.4m | 5.7m | 5.2m | 5.3m – 5.6m |
| 2029 | 5.7m | 6m | 5.5m | 5.3m – 6.1m |
| 2031 | 6m | 6.3m | 5.7m | 5.3m – 6.7m |
| 2036 | 6.7m | 7.2m | 6.3m | 5.3m – 8.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.44 | 15 | -6.79 | 1.68 – 5.2 |
| 2028 | 3.5 | 15 | -10 | 0.38 – 6.62 |
| 2030 | 3.56 | 15 | -10 | -0.54 – 7.66 |
| 2035 | 3.72 | 15 | -10 | -2.27 – 9.71 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.8bn | 22.6bn | 15.1bn | 17.9bn – 19.7bn |
| 2028 | 23.1bn | 29.6bn | 16.6bn | 21bn – 25.2bn |
| 2030 | 27.3bn | 35.8bn | 18.9bn | 23.9bn – 30.8bn |
| 2035 | 38bn | 49.9bn | 26.1bn | 30.1bn – 45.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.44 | 5.6 | 3.29 | 4.2 – 4.69 |
| 2028 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 2.21 | 3.69 – 4.71 |
| 2030 | 4.08 | 6.66 | 1.51 | 3.36 – 4.8 |
| 2035 | 3.99 | 7.63 | 0.34 | 2.79 – 5.18 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.8bn | 22.6bn | 15.1bn | 17.9bn – 19.7bn |
| 2028 | 23.1bn | 29.6bn | 16.6bn | 21bn – 25.2bn |
| 2030 | 27.3bn | 35.8bn | 18.9bn | 23.9bn – 30.8bn |
| 2035 | 38bn | 49.9bn | 26.1bn | 30.1bn – 45.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.41 | 8.48 | 2.34 | 4.86 – 5.97 |
| 2029 | 2.24 | 7.56 | 0 | 1.32 – 3.16 |
| 2031 | 0 | 6.86 | 0 | 0 – 1.13 |
| 2036 | 0 | 9.71 | 0 | 0 – 1.65 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-05 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CRI · API docs
