Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Cuba: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 42/100); the economy is in recovery; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 14 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -1.74 for 2025.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.16, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2025: cautious (projected sentiment -0.10) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Recovery
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 1960-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 1960-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+3% skill vs naive; realized ±5.1481 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Cuba: forward projections across 10 macro indicators, horizons 1961, 1963, 1965, 1970, 2021, 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed42.47(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 47.98 | 68.86 | 29.88 | 44.23 – 51.73 |
| 2027 | 58.99 | 95.16 | 27.64 | 50.99 – 66.99 |
| 2029 | 70 | 116.7 | 29.53 | 57.73 – 82.27 |
| 2034 | 97.53 | 150 | 40.3 | 72.49 – 122.57 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed107.4bn(2020)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 110.3bn | 116.1bn | 105.3bn | 106.9bn – 113.8bn |
| 2023 | 118bn | 124.2bn | 112.7bn | 109.3bn – 126.8bn |
| 2025 | 125.8bn | 132.4bn | 120bn | 111.5bn – 140bn |
| 2030 | 145bn | 152.6bn | 138.4bn | 114.9bn – 175.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-1.06(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -1.74 | 12 | -10 | -4.38 – 0.91 |
| 2027 | -2.99 | 12 | -10 | -7.67 – 1.69 |
| 2029 | -4.25 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 1.95 |
| 2034 | -7.39 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 2.07 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.6k(2020)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 9.9k | 10.4k | 9.4k | 9.6k – 10.2k |
| 2023 | 10.6k | 11.2k | 10.1k | 9.8k – 11.4k |
| 2025 | 11.3k | 11.9k | 10.8k | 10k – 12.6k |
| 2030 | 13.1k | 13.8k | 12.5k | 10.4k – 15.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed82.39(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 93.97 | 120.71 | 67.24 | 88.38 – 99.57 |
| 2027 | 117.13 | 150 | 70.83 | 104.42 – 129.84 |
| 2029 | 140.29 | 150 | 80.51 | 119.92 – 150 |
| 2034 | 150 | 150 | 65.46 | 113.06 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.76(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13.26 | 15.3 | 11.49 | 12.75 – 13.76 |
| 2027 | 14.46 | 18 | 11.39 | 13.26 – 15.66 |
| 2029 | 15.66 | 20.23 | 11.7 | 13.76 – 17.57 |
| 2034 | 18.67 | 25.13 | 13.07 | 14.76 – 22.58 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.9m | 11.5m | 10.5m | 10.6m – 11.3m |
| 2028 | 10.9m | 11.4m | 10.4m | 10.1m – 11.7m |
| 2030 | 10.9m | 11.4m | 10.4m | 9.6m – 12.1m |
| 2035 | 10.7m | 11.2m | 10.3m | 8.5m – 13m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed143m(1960)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1961 | 143m | 150m | 136m | 138.6m – 147.4m |
| 1963 | 143m | 150m | 136m | 132.4m – 153.6m |
| 1965 | 143m | 150m | 136m | 126.8m – 159.2m |
| 1970 | 143m | 150m | 136m | 113.3m – 172.7m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed144m(1960)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1961 | 144m | 151.1m | 137m | 139.6m – 148.5m |
| 1963 | 144m | 151.1m | 137m | 133.4m – 154.7m |
| 1965 | 144m | 151.1m | 137m | 127.7m – 160.4m |
| 1970 | 144m | 151.1m | 137m | 114.1m – 173.9m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.64 | 1.85 | 1.43 | 1.58 – 1.7 |
| 2028 | 1.44 | 1.8 | 1.07 | 1.31 – 1.56 |
| 2030 | 1.23 | 1.7 | 0.76 | 1.06 – 1.4 |
| 2035 | 0.72 | 1.38 | 0.05 | 0.46 – 0.98 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CUB · API docs
