Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Curacao: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 19/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 12 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.36 for 2025.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.62, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2025: supportive (projected sentiment +0.68) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2018-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2018-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2018-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2019-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2018-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+11% skill vs naive; realized ±9.5484 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Curacao: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed63.25(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 60.68 | 71.97 | 50.9 | 58.1 – 63.27 |
| 2021 | 55.55 | 75.11 | 38.61 | 50.09 – 61.01 |
| 2023 | 50.43 | 75.67 | 28.55 | 42.79 – 58.07 |
| 2028 | 37.61 | 73.31 | 6.67 | 26.49 – 48.73 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.7bn | 4.3bn | 3.2bn | 3.6bn – 3.8bn |
| 2027 | 4.1bn | 5bn | 3.3bn | 3.8bn – 4.4bn |
| 2029 | 4.5bn | 5.7bn | 3.4bn | 3.9bn – 5bn |
| 2034 | 5.4bn | 7.1bn | 3.9bn | 4.3bn – 6.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.03(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.36 | 12 | -10 | 1 – 9.72 |
| 2027 | 6.62 | 12 | -10 | -1.1 – 12 |
| 2029 | 7.88 | 12 | -10 | -2.3 – 12 |
| 2034 | 11.04 | 12 | -10 | -4.24 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.8k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23.8k | 27.1k | 20.9k | 23k – 24.5k |
| 2027 | 26.1k | 31.9k | 21.1k | 24.1k – 28k |
| 2029 | 28.4k | 35.9k | 21.9k | 25.2k – 31.6k |
| 2034 | 34.1k | 44.7k | 25k | 27.1k – 41.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed92.02(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 89.36 | 103.48 | 75.25 | 85.77 – 92.95 |
| 2021 | 84.04 | 108.49 | 59.59 | 76.27 – 91.82 |
| 2023 | 78.72 | 110.29 | 47.16 | 67.59 – 89.85 |
| 2028 | 65.42 | 110.06 | 20.78 | 48.12 – 82.72 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.62(2019)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2.51 | 4.99 | -0.16 | 1.91 – 3.1 |
| 2022 | 2.56 | 6.86 | -2.05 | 1.48 – 3.64 |
| 2024 | 2.61 | 8.17 | -3.34 | 1.17 – 4.05 |
| 2029 | 2.75 | 10.61 | -5 | 0.57 – 4.93 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.05(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 35.12 | 41.4 | 29.69 | 33.67 – 36.58 |
| 2021 | 37.96 | 48.83 | 28.55 | 34.59 – 41.34 |
| 2023 | 40.8 | 54.83 | 28.65 | 35.54 – 46.07 |
| 2028 | 47.9 | 67.74 | 30.71 | 37.41 – 58.4 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed156.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 156k | 163.4k | 149.1k | 151.1k – 160.8k |
| 2028 | 156.3k | 163.7k | 149.5k | 144.7k – 167.9k |
| 2030 | 156.6k | 164k | 149.8k | 138.9k – 174.4k |
| 2035 | 157.4k | 164.9k | 150.5k | 124.8k – 190.1k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CUW · API docs
