Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Cayman Islands: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 19/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 11 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.48 for 2025.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.62, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2025: balanced (projected sentiment +0.02) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2016-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-15% skill vs naive; realized ±4.2776 over 22) · a track record, not a guarantee
Cayman Islands: forward projections across 10 macro indicators, horizons 2017, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed59.63(2020)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 55.11 | 62.6 | 48.61 | 53.15 – 57.06 |
| 2023 | 46.05 | 59.02 | 34.8 | 41.99 – 50.11 |
| 2025 | 36.99 | 53.74 | 22.48 | 31.64 – 42.35 |
| 2030 | 14.35 | 38.04 | 0 | 8.67 – 20.03 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.8bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8.2bn | 8.8bn | 7.6bn | 7.9bn – 8.4bn |
| 2027 | 9.1bn | 10.2bn | 8.2bn | 8.5bn – 9.8bn |
| 2029 | 10.1bn | 11.5bn | 8.9bn | 9bn – 11.3bn |
| 2034 | 12.5bn | 14.4bn | 10.9bn | 9.9bn – 15.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.76(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.48 | 12 | -7.44 | 1.33 – 5.64 |
| 2027 | 3 | 12 | -10 | -0.78 – 6.79 |
| 2029 | 2.52 | 12 | -10 | -2.37 – 7.42 |
| 2034 | 1.32 | 12 | -10 | -5.53 – 8.18 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed104.3k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 108.2k | 116.7k | 100.9k | 104.9k – 111.6k |
| 2027 | 118k | 132.5k | 105.3k | 109.2k – 126.7k |
| 2029 | 127.7k | 146.5k | 111.4k | 113.2k – 142.2k |
| 2034 | 152k | 178.6k | 128.9k | 120.5k – 183.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed45.84(2020)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 46.55 | 48.83 | 44.27 | 45.11 – 47.99 |
| 2023 | 47.97 | 51.23 | 44.72 | 44.42 – 51.52 |
| 2025 | 49.39 | 53.6 | 45.19 | 43.79 – 55 |
| 2030 | 52.95 | 58.9 | 47.01 | 41.97 – 63.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.63(2016)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 0.41 | 4.16 | -3.61 | -0.44 – 1.25 |
| 2019 | 2.82 | 9.31 | -4.14 | 1.24 – 4.39 |
| 2021 | 5.23 | 13.62 | -3.76 | 2.95 – 7.51 |
| 2026 | 11.26 | 23.12 | -1.45 | 6.83 – 15.69 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed75.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 75.5k | 79k | 72.1k | 73.1k – 77.8k |
| 2028 | 77k | 80.6k | 73.6k | 71.3k – 82.7k |
| 2030 | 78.5k | 82.2k | 75.1k | 69.6k – 87.4k |
| 2035 | 82.3k | 86.2k | 78.7k | 65.2k – 99.4k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed252.1m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 260.1m | 282.1m | 238m | 252m – 268.1m |
| 2027 | 280.5m | 318.7m | 242.3m | 259.8m – 301.3m |
| 2029 | 301m | 350.3m | 251.7m | 266.8m – 335.1m |
| 2034 | 352.1m | 421.8m | 282.3m | 279m – 425.1m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.26(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.27 | 0.47 | 0.08 | 0.22 – 0.32 |
| 2027 | 0.28 | 0.55 | 0.02 | 0.2 – 0.37 |
| 2029 | 0.29 | 0.63 | 0 | 0.16 – 0.42 |
| 2034 | 0.29 | 0.78 | 0 | 0.06 – 0.53 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed252.1m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 260.1m | 282.1m | 238m | 252m – 268.1m |
| 2027 | 280.5m | 318.7m | 242.3m | 259.8m – 301.3m |
| 2029 | 301m | 350.3m | 251.7m | 266.8m – 335.1m |
| 2034 | 352.1m | 421.8m | 282.3m | 279m – 425.1m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CYM · API docs
