Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Cyprus: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 31/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.96 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.38, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.46) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±0.9551 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Cyprus: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-9.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -8.63 | -3.53 | -13.73 | -9.81 – -7.45 |
| 2028 | -9.68 | -0.85 | -18.51 | -11.95 – -7.41 |
| 2030 | -10.74 | 0.67 | -22.14 | -13.92 – -7.55 |
| 2035 | -13.37 | 2.75 | -29.5 | -18.8 – -7.94 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed97.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 101.52 | 115.87 | 89.09 | 97.85 – 105.2 |
| 2028 | 109.43 | 134.28 | 87.89 | 100.62 – 118.23 |
| 2030 | 117.33 | 149.41 | 89.52 | 103.36 – 131.3 |
| 2035 | 137.08 | 150 | 97.76 | 108.65 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.5bn | 47.5bn | 40.1bn | 42.2bn – 44.9bn |
| 2028 | 49.3bn | 56.1bn | 43.4bn | 45.7bn – 52.9bn |
| 2030 | 55.1bn | 63.9bn | 47.4bn | 48.8bn – 61.3bn |
| 2035 | 69.5bn | 81.9bn | 58.7bn | 55.1bn – 83.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.96 | 12 | -8.58 | 1.48 – 6.43 |
| 2028 | 4.21 | 12 | -10 | -0.17 – 8.59 |
| 2030 | 4.47 | 12 | -10 | -1.28 – 10.22 |
| 2035 | 5.11 | 12 | -10 | -3.33 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.7k | 47.8k | 40.1k | 42.3k – 45k |
| 2028 | 48.5k | 55.6k | 42.3k | 44.9k – 52.1k |
| 2030 | 53.4k | 62.6k | 45.4k | 47.3k – 59.4k |
| 2035 | 65.4k | 78.4k | 54.1k | 51.9k – 79k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.62(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.2 | 6.05 | 0.14 | 2.44 – 3.95 |
| 2029 | 2.7 | 7.64 | 0 | 1.35 – 4.05 |
| 2031 | 2.45 | 8.84 | 0 | 0.68 – 4.22 |
| 2036 | 2.26 | 11.29 | 0 | 0 – 4.84 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed50.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49.85 | 70.16 | 26.41 | 45.92 – 53.77 |
| 2028 | 38.94 | 74.12 | 0 | 31.66 – 46.22 |
| 2030 | 28.03 | 73.45 | 0 | 18.8 – 37.26 |
| 2035 | 0.77 | 64.99 | 0 | 0 – 10.81 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed91.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 95.25 | 107.89 | 82.62 | 91.8 – 98.71 |
| 2028 | 101.92 | 123.8 | 80.03 | 93.67 – 110.16 |
| 2030 | 108.58 | 136.84 | 80.32 | 95.57 – 121.59 |
| 2035 | 125.24 | 150 | 85.28 | 99.08 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.31 | 7.51 | -5 | -2.06 – 1.44 |
| 2028 | -2.65 | 10.89 | -5 | -5 – 0.48 |
| 2030 | -5 | 12.49 | -5 | -5 – -0.72 |
| 2035 | -5 | 19.73 | -5 | -5 – 1.28 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.2(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.05 | 11.11 | -3.52 | 2.42 – 5.68 |
| 2029 | 2.94 | 15.18 | -5 | 0.09 – 5.8 |
| 2031 | 2.54 | 18.34 | -5 | -1.16 – 6.25 |
| 2036 | 2.34 | 24.67 | -5 | -2.99 – 7.66 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.03 | 22.9 | 17.54 | 19.3 – 20.76 |
| 2028 | 20.02 | 25 | 15.71 | 18.35 – 21.69 |
| 2030 | 20.01 | 26.44 | 14.44 | 17.49 – 22.53 |
| 2035 | 19.99 | 29.08 | 12.12 | 15.49 – 24.49 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.3m – 1.4m |
| 2028 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.3m – 1.5m |
| 2030 | 1.4m | 1.5m | 1.3m | 1.2m – 1.6m |
| 2035 | 1.4m | 1.5m | 1.4m | 1.1m – 1.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.15 | 15 | -6.52 | 1.48 – 4.81 |
| 2028 | 3.06 | 15 | -10 | 0.12 – 6 |
| 2030 | 2.97 | 15 | -10 | -0.87 – 6.81 |
| 2035 | 2.75 | 15 | -10 | -2.79 – 8.28 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed999.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1bn | 1.3bn | 796.1m | 995.7m – 1.1bn |
| 2028 | 1.2bn | 1.6bn | 750m | 1.1bn – 1.3bn |
| 2030 | 1.3bn | 1.9bn | 762.2m | 1.1bn – 1.5bn |
| 2035 | 1.7bn | 2.5bn | 877.9m | 1.3bn – 2.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.46 | 0.66 | 0.26 | 0.41 – 0.51 |
| 2028 | 0.37 | 0.66 | 0.09 | 0.28 – 0.46 |
| 2030 | 0.33 | 0.7 | 0 | 0.2 – 0.47 |
| 2035 | 0.3 | 0.81 | 0 | 0.06 – 0.54 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2bn | 3.7bn | 2.7bn | 3.1bn – 3.3bn |
| 2028 | 3.9bn | 4.8bn | 3.1bn | 3.6bn – 4.2bn |
| 2030 | 4.6bn | 5.7bn | 3.5bn | 4.1bn – 5.2bn |
| 2035 | 6.4bn | 7.9bn | 4.8bn | 5bn – 7.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.27 | 5.04 | 3.5 | 4.08 – 4.45 |
| 2028 | 2.96 | 4.29 | 1.62 | 2.61 – 3.3 |
| 2030 | 1.64 | 3.37 | 0 | 1.25 – 2.04 |
| 2035 | 0 | 2.44 | 0 | 0 – 0.53 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CYP · API docs
