Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Cyprus: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 38/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.25 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.24, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.18) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-07-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±7.2283 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Cyprus: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-9.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -9.65 | -4.59 | -14.71 | -10.84 – -8.46 |
| 2029 | -10.35 | -1.58 | -19.12 | -12.64 – -8.07 |
| 2031 | -11.06 | 0.27 | -22.38 | -14.25 – -7.86 |
| 2036 | -12.81 | 3.2 | -28.82 | -18.13 – -7.49 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed97.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 101.52 | 115.87 | 89.09 | 97.85 – 105.2 |
| 2028 | 109.43 | 134.28 | 87.89 | 100.62 – 118.23 |
| 2030 | 117.33 | 149.41 | 89.52 | 103.36 – 131.3 |
| 2035 | 137.08 | 150 | 97.76 | 108.65 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 47.7bn | 51.5bn | 44.4bn | 46.2bn – 49.1bn |
| 2029 | 54bn | 60.5bn | 48.3bn | 50bn – 58bn |
| 2031 | 60.3bn | 68.8bn | 53bn | 53.5bn – 67.2bn |
| 2036 | 76.1bn | 88.1bn | 65.7bn | 60.3bn – 91.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.25 | 6.44 | -1.38 | 1.52 – 2.98 |
| 2029 | 0.44 | 7.69 | -5.85 | -0.82 – 1.7 |
| 2031 | -1.37 | 7.99 | -9.49 | -3.04 – 0.3 |
| 2036 | -5.9 | 7.34 | -10 | -9.05 – -2.75 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 47.5k | 51.5k | 44k | 46k – 49k |
| 2029 | 53k | 59.9k | 46.9k | 49k – 56.9k |
| 2031 | 58.4k | 67.4k | 50.6k | 51.8k – 65k |
| 2036 | 72k | 84.7k | 61k | 57.1k – 86.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.04 | 5.88 | 0 | 2.29 – 3.79 |
| 2029 | 2.61 | 7.54 | 0 | 1.27 – 3.95 |
| 2031 | 2.4 | 8.76 | 0 | 0.64 – 4.16 |
| 2036 | 2.23 | 11.23 | 0 | 0 – 4.8 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed50.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 44.73 | 64.82 | 21.55 | 40.92 – 48.53 |
| 2029 | 32.38 | 67.18 | 0 | 25.47 – 39.29 |
| 2031 | 20.04 | 64.96 | 0 | 11.52 – 28.55 |
| 2036 | 0 | 63.53 | 0 | 0 – 9.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed91.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 95.25 | 107.89 | 82.62 | 91.8 – 98.71 |
| 2028 | 101.92 | 123.8 | 80.03 | 93.67 – 110.16 |
| 2030 | 108.58 | 136.84 | 80.32 | 95.57 – 121.59 |
| 2035 | 125.24 | 150 | 85.28 | 99.08 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.81 | 11.46 | -4.38 | 2.06 – 5.57 |
| 2029 | 7.27 | 20.52 | -5 | 3.99 – 10.56 |
| 2031 | 10.74 | 27.83 | -5 | 6.09 – 15.39 |
| 2036 | 19.39 | 43.57 | -5 | 10.93 – 27.86 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.28 | 10.03 | -3.95 | 1.73 – 4.83 |
| 2029 | 2.59 | 14.28 | -5 | -0.13 – 5.3 |
| 2031 | 2.34 | 17.43 | -5 | -1.19 – 5.87 |
| 2036 | 2.21 | 23.55 | -5 | -2.87 – 7.3 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.03 | 22.9 | 17.54 | 19.3 – 20.76 |
| 2028 | 20.02 | 25 | 15.71 | 18.35 – 21.69 |
| 2030 | 20.01 | 26.44 | 14.44 | 17.49 – 22.53 |
| 2035 | 19.99 | 29.08 | 12.12 | 15.49 – 24.49 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 952.6k | 1.2m | 737.4k | 919k – 986.3k |
| 2029 | 539.3k | 940.9k | 166.4k | 481.6k – 597.1k |
| 2031 | 126k | 644.4k | 0 | 74.8k – 177.2k |
| 2036 | 0 | 733.2k | 0 | 0 – 58.2k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.15 | 15 | -6.52 | 1.48 – 4.81 |
| 2028 | 3.06 | 15 | -10 | 0.12 – 6 |
| 2030 | 2.97 | 15 | -10 | -0.87 – 6.81 |
| 2035 | 2.75 | 15 | -10 | -2.79 – 8.28 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed999.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1bn | 1.3bn | 796.1m | 995.7m – 1.1bn |
| 2028 | 1.2bn | 1.6bn | 750m | 1.1bn – 1.3bn |
| 2030 | 1.3bn | 1.9bn | 762.2m | 1.1bn – 1.5bn |
| 2035 | 1.7bn | 2.5bn | 877.9m | 1.3bn – 2.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.46 | 0.66 | 0.26 | 0.41 – 0.51 |
| 2028 | 0.37 | 0.66 | 0.09 | 0.28 – 0.46 |
| 2030 | 0.33 | 0.7 | 0 | 0.2 – 0.47 |
| 2035 | 0.3 | 0.81 | 0 | 0.06 – 0.54 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2bn | 3.7bn | 2.7bn | 3.1bn – 3.3bn |
| 2028 | 3.9bn | 4.8bn | 3.1bn | 3.6bn – 4.2bn |
| 2030 | 4.6bn | 5.7bn | 3.5bn | 4.1bn – 5.2bn |
| 2035 | 6.4bn | 7.9bn | 4.8bn | 5bn – 7.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4 | 4.74 | 3.25 | 3.82 – 4.17 |
| 2029 | 2.79 | 4.08 | 1.49 | 2.46 – 3.12 |
| 2031 | 1.58 | 3.25 | 0 | 1.2 – 1.96 |
| 2036 | 0 | 2.36 | 0 | 0 – 0.52 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CYP · API docs
