Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Czechia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 37/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.4 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.26, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.34) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±5.1789 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Czechia: forward projections across 16 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.53 | 3.92 | -6.97 | -2.66 – -0.39 |
| 2029 | -1.58 | 7.85 | -11 | -3.57 – 0.42 |
| 2031 | -1.63 | 10.55 | -13.8 | -4.24 – 0.99 |
| 2036 | -1.75 | 15.46 | -18.96 | -5.54 – 2.04 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed66.95(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 66.07 | 71.78 | 61.13 | 64.03 – 68.12 |
| 2028 | 64.33 | 74.21 | 55.77 | 59.57 – 69.09 |
| 2030 | 62.59 | 75.34 | 51.54 | 55.48 – 69.69 |
| 2035 | 58.23 | 76.26 | 42.6 | 46.15 – 70.31 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed391bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 454.9bn | 497.3bn | 418.1bn | 440.8bn – 469bn |
| 2029 | 512bn | 585.5bn | 448.4bn | 474.2bn – 549.9bn |
| 2031 | 569.2bn | 664.1bn | 487bn | 504.6bn – 633.9bn |
| 2036 | 712.2bn | 846.3bn | 595.9bn | 564.5bn – 859.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.4 | 5.64 | -0.41 | 1.82 – 2.98 |
| 2029 | 2.8 | 8.41 | -2.07 | 1.72 – 3.87 |
| 2031 | 3.19 | 10.45 | -3.09 | 1.73 – 4.66 |
| 2036 | 4.19 | 12 | -4.7 | 1.81 – 6.57 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 41.8k | 45.9k | 38.2k | 40.5k – 43.1k |
| 2029 | 46.9k | 54.1k | 40.7k | 43.5k – 50.4k |
| 2031 | 52.1k | 61.3k | 44.1k | 46.2k – 58k |
| 2036 | 65k | 78k | 53.6k | 51.5k – 78.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 48.16 | 53.17 | 42.37 | 46.61 – 49.7 |
| 2029 | 51.67 | 60.36 | 41.65 | 47.85 – 55.49 |
| 2031 | 55.18 | 66.4 | 42.24 | 48.92 – 61.45 |
| 2036 | 63.97 | 79.83 | 45.66 | 50.7 – 77.24 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed61.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 60.33 | 69.48 | 51.18 | 57.97 – 62.7 |
| 2028 | 58.81 | 74.66 | 42.96 | 53.56 – 64.06 |
| 2030 | 57.29 | 77.75 | 36.82 | 49.57 – 65 |
| 2035 | 53.48 | 82.42 | 24.54 | 40.49 – 66.46 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.6 | 15.88 | -5 | -0.38 – 5.59 |
| 2029 | 2.52 | 25.51 | -5 | -2.7 – 7.74 |
| 2031 | 2.44 | 32.12 | -5 | -4.34 – 9.21 |
| 2036 | 2.23 | 44.2 | -5 | -5 – 11.89 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.47 | 13.05 | -5 | 0.08 – 4.85 |
| 2029 | 3.78 | 22.1 | -5 | -0.46 – 8.02 |
| 2031 | 4.25 | 27.91 | -5 | -1.33 – 9.84 |
| 2036 | 4.5 | 37.95 | -5 | -3.64 – 12.63 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.24 | 28.07 | 24.66 | 25.43 – 27.05 |
| 2028 | 25.91 | 29.07 | 23.16 | 23.99 – 27.83 |
| 2030 | 25.58 | 29.67 | 22.03 | 22.67 – 28.48 |
| 2035 | 24.75 | 30.53 | 19.74 | 19.62 – 29.88 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.9m | 11.4m | 10.4m | 10.5m – 11.2m |
| 2029 | 10.8m | 11.4m | 10.4m | 10m – 11.6m |
| 2031 | 10.8m | 11.3m | 10.3m | 9.6m – 12.1m |
| 2036 | 10.8m | 11.4m | 10.2m | 8.5m – 13m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.61 | 15 | -6.61 | 1.85 – 5.38 |
| 2028 | 4.95 | 15 | -10 | 1.76 – 8.14 |
| 2030 | 6.28 | 15 | -10 | 1.97 – 10.6 |
| 2035 | 9.62 | 15 | -10 | 2.69 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed166.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 170.3bn | 204bn | 136.5bn | 162.4bn – 178.2bn |
| 2028 | 179.8bn | 238.4bn | 121.3bn | 162.2bn – 197.4bn |
| 2030 | 189.4bn | 265bn | 113.9bn | 162.7bn – 216.1bn |
| 2035 | 213.3bn | 320.2bn | 106.5bn | 162.9bn – 263.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.84 | 11.41 | 4.28 | 7.17 – 8.52 |
| 2028 | 8.08 | 14.26 | 1.91 | 6.75 – 9.42 |
| 2030 | 8.2 | 16.17 | 0.23 | 6.32 – 10.08 |
| 2035 | 8.29 | 19.56 | 0 | 5.24 – 11.35 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed176.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 182.1bn | 217.8bn | 146.4bn | 173.7bn – 190.5bn |
| 2028 | 196.2bn | 258bn | 134.4bn | 177.3bn – 215.1bn |
| 2030 | 210.3bn | 290.1bn | 130.5bn | 181.3bn – 239.3bn |
| 2035 | 245.5bn | 358.4bn | 132.7bn | 189bn – 302.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.08 | 3.72 | 2.44 | 2.93 – 3.23 |
| 2029 | 3.24 | 4.35 | 2.13 | 2.92 – 3.57 |
| 2031 | 3.4 | 4.84 | 1.97 | 2.91 – 3.89 |
| 2036 | 3.8 | 5.83 | 1.77 | 2.88 – 4.72 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CZE · API docs
