Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Czechia: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 33/100); the economy is in expansion; 22 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.58 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.34, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.44) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±1.3775 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Czechia: forward projections across 16 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.71 | 5.93 | -4.51 | -0.37 – 1.79 |
| 2028 | 0.73 | 9.77 | -8.31 | -1.16 – 2.62 |
| 2030 | 0.75 | 12.42 | -10.92 | -1.71 – 3.21 |
| 2035 | 0.8 | 17.3 | -15.71 | -2.73 – 4.32 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed66.95(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 66.07 | 71.78 | 61.13 | 64.03 – 68.12 |
| 2028 | 64.33 | 74.21 | 55.77 | 59.57 – 69.09 |
| 2030 | 62.59 | 75.34 | 51.54 | 55.48 – 69.69 |
| 2035 | 58.23 | 76.26 | 42.6 | 46.15 – 70.31 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed391bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 410.2bn | 452.2bn | 373.8bn | 397.5bn – 422.9bn |
| 2028 | 458.9bn | 531.7bn | 395.8bn | 424.9bn – 492.8bn |
| 2030 | 507.6bn | 601.6bn | 426.1bn | 450bn – 565.2bn |
| 2035 | 629.4bn | 762.3bn | 514.2bn | 498.8bn – 759.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.58 | 12 | -4.02 | 2.06 – 5.1 |
| 2028 | 5.76 | 12 | -7.4 | 2.96 – 8.57 |
| 2030 | 7.95 | 12 | -9.04 | 4.04 – 11.85 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 5.46 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37.5k | 41.6k | 34k | 36.4k – 38.7k |
| 2028 | 41.7k | 48.7k | 35.6k | 38.6k – 44.8k |
| 2030 | 45.8k | 54.9k | 38k | 40.6k – 51.1k |
| 2035 | 56.3k | 69.1k | 45.1k | 44.6k – 67.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 46.04 | 51.49 | 39.75 | 44.46 – 47.61 |
| 2028 | 48.91 | 58.35 | 38.02 | 45.11 – 52.71 |
| 2030 | 51.78 | 63.97 | 37.72 | 45.77 – 57.8 |
| 2035 | 58.97 | 76.2 | 39.08 | 46.74 – 71.2 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed61.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 60.33 | 69.48 | 51.18 | 57.97 – 62.7 |
| 2028 | 58.81 | 74.66 | 42.96 | 53.56 – 64.06 |
| 2030 | 57.29 | 77.75 | 36.82 | 49.57 – 65 |
| 2035 | 53.48 | 82.42 | 24.54 | 40.49 – 66.46 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.24 | 16.53 | -5 | 0.24 – 6.24 |
| 2028 | 3.27 | 26.3 | -5 | -1.99 – 8.53 |
| 2030 | 3.31 | 33.04 | -5 | -3.55 – 10.16 |
| 2035 | 3.39 | 45.44 | -5 | -5 – 13.26 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.72 | 13.3 | -5 | 0.34 – 5.11 |
| 2029 | 3.9 | 22.21 | -5 | -0.35 – 8.15 |
| 2031 | 4.32 | 27.96 | -5 | -1.26 – 9.91 |
| 2036 | 4.54 | 37.97 | -5 | -3.6 – 12.68 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.24 | 28.07 | 24.66 | 25.43 – 27.05 |
| 2028 | 25.91 | 29.07 | 23.16 | 23.99 – 27.83 |
| 2030 | 25.58 | 29.67 | 22.03 | 22.67 – 28.48 |
| 2035 | 24.75 | 30.53 | 19.74 | 19.62 – 29.88 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.9m | 11.4m | 10.4m | 10.5m – 11.2m |
| 2028 | 10.8m | 11.3m | 10.4m | 10m – 11.6m |
| 2030 | 10.8m | 11.3m | 10.3m | 9.6m – 12m |
| 2035 | 10.8m | 11.4m | 10.2m | 8.5m – 13m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.61 | 15 | -6.61 | 1.85 – 5.38 |
| 2028 | 4.95 | 15 | -10 | 1.76 – 8.14 |
| 2030 | 6.28 | 15 | -10 | 1.97 – 10.6 |
| 2035 | 9.62 | 15 | -10 | 2.69 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed166.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 170.3bn | 204bn | 136.5bn | 162.4bn – 178.2bn |
| 2028 | 179.8bn | 238.4bn | 121.3bn | 162.2bn – 197.4bn |
| 2030 | 189.4bn | 265bn | 113.9bn | 162.7bn – 216.1bn |
| 2035 | 213.3bn | 320.2bn | 106.5bn | 162.9bn – 263.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.84 | 11.41 | 4.28 | 7.17 – 8.52 |
| 2028 | 8.08 | 14.26 | 1.91 | 6.75 – 9.42 |
| 2030 | 8.2 | 16.17 | 0.23 | 6.32 – 10.08 |
| 2035 | 8.29 | 19.56 | 0 | 5.24 – 11.35 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed176.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 182.1bn | 217.8bn | 146.4bn | 173.7bn – 190.5bn |
| 2028 | 196.2bn | 258bn | 134.4bn | 177.3bn – 215.1bn |
| 2030 | 210.3bn | 290.1bn | 130.5bn | 181.3bn – 239.3bn |
| 2035 | 245.5bn | 358.4bn | 132.7bn | 189bn – 302.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.86 | 3.51 | 2.2 | 2.71 – 3 |
| 2028 | 2.92 | 4.06 | 1.78 | 2.61 – 3.24 |
| 2030 | 2.99 | 4.45 | 1.52 | 2.52 – 3.45 |
| 2035 | 3.15 | 5.22 | 1.07 | 2.32 – 3.97 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/CZE · API docs
