Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Germany: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 39/100); the economy is in expansion; 23 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.64 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.22, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.24) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-10% skill vs naive; realized ±0.1611 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Germany: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed3.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.88 | 6.79 | 0.97 | 3.22 – 4.53 |
| 2028 | 2.83 | 7.87 | -2.21 | 1.66 – 3.99 |
| 2030 | 1.78 | 8.29 | -4.73 | 0.31 – 3.25 |
| 2035 | -0.84 | 8.37 | -10.04 | -2.88 – 1.2 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.38 | 45.49 | 35.96 | 39.01 – 41.76 |
| 2028 | 40.28 | 49.13 | 32.61 | 37.08 – 43.48 |
| 2030 | 40.18 | 51.6 | 30.28 | 35.33 – 45.02 |
| 2035 | 39.92 | 56.08 | 25.92 | 31.23 – 48.62 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.2T | 5.7T | 4.8T | 5.1T – 5.4T |
| 2028 | 5.7T | 6.5T | 5T | 5.2T – 6.1T |
| 2030 | 6.1T | 7.1T | 5.2T | 5.4T – 6.8T |
| 2035 | 7.2T | 8.7T | 5.9T | 5.7T – 8.7T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.64 | 8.67 | -6.32 | -0.72 – 1.99 |
| 2028 | 1.46 | 12 | -10 | -0.93 – 3.84 |
| 2030 | 2.27 | 12 | -10 | -0.9 – 5.45 |
| 2035 | 4.32 | 12 | -10 | -0.61 – 9.24 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.5k | 68.1k | 57.7k | 60.6k – 64.4k |
| 2028 | 67.6k | 77.3k | 59.2k | 62.6k – 72.6k |
| 2030 | 72.6k | 85.2k | 61.8k | 64.4k – 80.9k |
| 2035 | 85.3k | 103k | 70k | 67.6k – 103k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.19(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.58 | 4.25 | 0.78 | 2.12 – 3.03 |
| 2029 | 1.85 | 4.75 | 0 | 1.05 – 2.65 |
| 2031 | 1.5 | 5.24 | 0 | 0.45 – 2.54 |
| 2036 | 1.21 | 6.51 | 0 | 0 – 2.71 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.68 | 69.69 | 54.59 | 60.6 – 64.76 |
| 2028 | 62.23 | 74.38 | 48.22 | 57.38 – 67.09 |
| 2030 | 61.79 | 77.47 | 43.7 | 54.43 – 69.14 |
| 2035 | 60.68 | 82.85 | 35.09 | 47.56 – 73.79 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38.51 | 44.86 | 32.15 | 36.92 – 40.1 |
| 2028 | 39.37 | 50.37 | 28.36 | 35.79 – 42.94 |
| 2030 | 40.22 | 54.43 | 26.02 | 34.83 – 45.62 |
| 2035 | 42.37 | 62.46 | 22.28 | 32.52 – 52.23 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.46 | 7.96 | -3.43 | 1.2 – 3.72 |
| 2028 | 2.34 | 11.86 | -5 | 0.12 – 4.56 |
| 2030 | 2.22 | 14.51 | -5 | -0.68 – 5.12 |
| 2035 | 1.92 | 19.31 | -5 | -2.24 – 6.09 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.97 | 9.62 | -4.15 | 1.45 – 4.49 |
| 2029 | 3.04 | 14.56 | -5 | 0.34 – 5.74 |
| 2031 | 3.07 | 17.94 | -5 | -0.48 – 6.61 |
| 2036 | 3.08 | 24.11 | -5 | -2.08 – 8.23 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.07 | 21.12 | 19.16 | 19.45 – 20.69 |
| 2028 | 19.49 | 20.89 | 18.27 | 18.05 – 20.93 |
| 2030 | 18.91 | 20.72 | 17.34 | 16.76 – 21.05 |
| 2035 | 17.45 | 20.01 | 15.24 | 13.83 – 21.08 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed83.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 83.4m | 87.4m | 79.8m | 80.8m – 86m |
| 2028 | 83.4m | 87.3m | 79.7m | 77.2m – 89.6m |
| 2030 | 83.4m | 87.3m | 79.7m | 73.9m – 92.8m |
| 2035 | 83.3m | 87.2m | 79.7m | 66m – 100.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.26 | 8.08 | -3.85 | 0.39 – 2.14 |
| 2028 | 1.62 | 13.43 | -7.24 | 0.06 – 3.17 |
| 2030 | 1.97 | 15 | -9.47 | -0.09 – 4.03 |
| 2035 | 2.85 | 15 | -10 | -0.3 – 6 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed101.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 103.9bn | 127.9bn | 80bn | 98.6bn – 109.3bn |
| 2028 | 110.4bn | 151.8bn | 68.9bn | 98.7bn – 122bn |
| 2030 | 116.8bn | 170.3bn | 63.2bn | 99.2bn – 134.3bn |
| 2035 | 132.8bn | 208.6bn | 57.1bn | 100bn – 165.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.76 | 3.48 | 2.04 | 2.61 – 2.92 |
| 2028 | 2.35 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 2.04 – 2.65 |
| 2030 | 2.14 | 3.76 | 0.53 | 1.73 – 2.56 |
| 2035 | 1.98 | 4.26 | 0 | 1.32 – 2.65 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed572.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 627.3bn | 744.5bn | 510.2bn | 599.4bn – 655.3bn |
| 2028 | 767.9bn | 970.9bn | 565bn | 700bn – 835.9bn |
| 2030 | 908.6bn | 1.2T | 646.6bn | 795.8bn – 1T |
| 2035 | 1.3T | 1.6T | 889.6bn | 998.7bn – 1.5T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.67 | 4.28 | 3.05 | 3.52 – 3.82 |
| 2028 | 3.58 | 4.65 | 2.51 | 3.25 – 3.92 |
| 2030 | 3.5 | 4.88 | 2.12 | 3.01 – 3.99 |
| 2035 | 3.28 | 5.23 | 1.33 | 2.46 – 4.11 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/DEU · API docs
