Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Germany: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 42/100); the economy is in expansion; 22 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.99 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.16, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.22) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-07-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-10% skill vs naive; realized ±4.9622 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Germany: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed3.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.43 | 6.34 | 0.52 | 2.79 – 4.08 |
| 2029 | 2.5 | 7.54 | -2.54 | 1.35 – 3.65 |
| 2031 | 1.57 | 8.08 | -4.94 | 0.12 – 3.03 |
| 2036 | -0.75 | 8.45 | -9.96 | -2.79 – 1.28 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.38 | 45.49 | 35.96 | 39.01 – 41.76 |
| 2028 | 40.28 | 49.13 | 32.61 | 37.08 – 43.48 |
| 2030 | 40.18 | 51.6 | 30.28 | 35.33 – 45.02 |
| 2035 | 39.92 | 56.08 | 25.92 | 31.23 – 48.62 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.7T | 6.1T | 5.3T | 5.5T – 5.8T |
| 2029 | 6.2T | 7T | 5.5T | 5.7T – 6.6T |
| 2031 | 6.7T | 7.7T | 5.9T | 6T – 7.5T |
| 2036 | 8T | 9.5T | 6.8T | 6.4T – 9.7T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.99 | 4.06 | -1.66 | 0.46 – 1.52 |
| 2029 | 1.36 | 6.67 | -3.24 | 0.41 – 2.31 |
| 2031 | 1.73 | 8.59 | -4.2 | 0.45 – 3.02 |
| 2036 | 2.66 | 12 | -5.74 | 0.62 – 4.71 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 67.7k | 73.1k | 63.1k | 65.6k – 69.8k |
| 2029 | 73.9k | 83.3k | 65.9k | 68.5k – 79.4k |
| 2031 | 80.2k | 92.2k | 69.7k | 71.1k – 89.3k |
| 2036 | 95.7k | 112.7k | 81k | 75.9k – 115.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.96(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.41 | 4.09 | 0.62 | 1.96 – 2.87 |
| 2029 | 1.76 | 4.67 | 0 | 0.96 – 2.56 |
| 2031 | 1.44 | 5.19 | 0 | 0.4 – 2.48 |
| 2036 | 1.18 | 6.49 | 0 | 0 – 2.68 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 64.7 | 71.38 | 57 | 62.64 – 66.77 |
| 2029 | 64.91 | 76.48 | 51.56 | 60.01 – 69.8 |
| 2031 | 65.12 | 80.05 | 47.89 | 57.61 – 72.62 |
| 2036 | 65.63 | 86.75 | 41.26 | 51.88 – 79.38 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38.51 | 44.86 | 32.15 | 36.92 – 40.1 |
| 2028 | 39.37 | 50.37 | 28.36 | 35.79 – 42.94 |
| 2030 | 40.22 | 54.43 | 26.02 | 34.83 – 45.62 |
| 2035 | 42.37 | 62.46 | 22.28 | 32.52 – 52.23 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.02 | 7.92 | -2.24 | 1.88 – 4.15 |
| 2029 | 3.76 | 12.26 | -5 | 1.69 – 5.82 |
| 2031 | 4.5 | 15.47 | -5 | 1.7 – 7.29 |
| 2036 | 6.34 | 21.86 | -5 | 1.89 – 10.8 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.91 | 9.55 | -4.21 | 1.39 – 4.43 |
| 2029 | 3.01 | 14.52 | -5 | 0.32 – 5.71 |
| 2031 | 3.05 | 17.91 | -5 | -0.49 – 6.59 |
| 2036 | 3.07 | 24.08 | -5 | -2.08 – 8.22 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.07 | 21.12 | 19.16 | 19.45 – 20.69 |
| 2028 | 19.49 | 20.89 | 18.27 | 18.05 – 20.93 |
| 2030 | 18.91 | 20.72 | 17.34 | 16.76 – 21.05 |
| 2035 | 17.45 | 20.01 | 15.24 | 13.83 – 21.08 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed83.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 83.5m | 87.4m | 79.8m | 80.9m – 86.1m |
| 2029 | 83.5m | 87.4m | 79.8m | 77.3m – 89.7m |
| 2031 | 83.5m | 87.4m | 79.8m | 74m – 93m |
| 2036 | 83.5m | 87.5m | 79.9m | 66.2m – 100.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.26 | 8.08 | -3.85 | 0.39 – 2.14 |
| 2028 | 1.62 | 13.43 | -7.24 | 0.06 – 3.17 |
| 2030 | 1.97 | 15 | -9.47 | -0.09 – 4.03 |
| 2035 | 2.85 | 15 | -10 | -0.3 – 6 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed101.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 103.9bn | 127.9bn | 80bn | 98.6bn – 109.3bn |
| 2028 | 110.4bn | 151.8bn | 68.9bn | 98.7bn – 122bn |
| 2030 | 116.8bn | 170.3bn | 63.2bn | 99.2bn – 134.3bn |
| 2035 | 132.8bn | 208.6bn | 57.1bn | 100bn – 165.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.76 | 3.48 | 2.04 | 2.61 – 2.92 |
| 2028 | 2.35 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 2.04 – 2.65 |
| 2030 | 2.14 | 3.76 | 0.53 | 1.73 – 2.56 |
| 2035 | 1.98 | 4.26 | 0 | 1.32 – 2.65 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed572.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 627.3bn | 744.5bn | 510.2bn | 599.4bn – 655.3bn |
| 2028 | 767.9bn | 970.9bn | 565bn | 700bn – 835.9bn |
| 2030 | 908.6bn | 1.2T | 646.6bn | 795.8bn – 1T |
| 2035 | 1.3T | 1.6T | 889.6bn | 998.7bn – 1.5T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4 | 4.58 | 3.42 | 3.85 – 4.15 |
| 2029 | 4.21 | 5.21 | 3.21 | 3.85 – 4.56 |
| 2031 | 4.41 | 5.7 | 3.12 | 3.86 – 4.96 |
| 2036 | 4.92 | 6.75 | 3.09 | 3.86 – 5.99 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/DEU · API docs
