Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Djibouti: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 31/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.83 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.38, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.40) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±3.7322 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Djibouti: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed10.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.08 | 30 | -14.01 | 5 – 15.15 |
| 2029 | 10.03 | 30 | -30 | 1.03 – 19.02 |
| 2031 | 9.98 | 30 | -30 | -1.81 – 21.76 |
| 2036 | 9.85 | 30 | -30 | -7.27 – 26.97 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed110.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 105.65 | 150 | 61.59 | 96.69 – 114.6 |
| 2028 | 95.96 | 150 | 19.64 | 78.77 – 113.14 |
| 2030 | 86.26 | 150 | 0 | 63.12 – 109.4 |
| 2035 | 62.03 | 150 | 0 | 29.14 – 94.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5bn | 5.2bn | 4.7bn | 4.8bn – 5.1bn |
| 2029 | 5.5bn | 6bn | 5.1bn | 5.1bn – 5.9bn |
| 2031 | 6.1bn | 6.7bn | 5.5bn | 5.4bn – 6.8bn |
| 2036 | 7.5bn | 8.3bn | 6.7bn | 5.9bn – 9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.83 | 7.53 | 4.35 | 5.45 – 6.2 |
| 2029 | 5.48 | 8.42 | 2.93 | 4.73 – 6.24 |
| 2031 | 5.14 | 8.94 | 1.84 | 4.09 – 6.18 |
| 2036 | 4.28 | 9.65 | -0.38 | 2.7 – 5.85 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.6k | 5k | 4.4k | 4.5k – 4.8k |
| 2029 | 5.2k | 5.8k | 4.7k | 4.8k – 5.6k |
| 2031 | 5.8k | 6.5k | 5.2k | 5.2k – 6.5k |
| 2036 | 7.3k | 8.3k | 6.4k | 5.8k – 8.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 27.6 | 31 | 23.67 | 26.63 – 28.56 |
| 2029 | 23.59 | 29.49 | 16.78 | 21.55 – 25.63 |
| 2031 | 19.59 | 27.21 | 10.8 | 16.85 – 22.33 |
| 2036 | 9.58 | 20.35 | 0 | 6.39 – 12.77 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed95.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 90.67 | 133.5 | 47.85 | 82.67 – 98.68 |
| 2028 | 80.41 | 150 | 6.24 | 65.2 – 95.63 |
| 2030 | 70.15 | 150 | 0 | 49.88 – 90.42 |
| 2035 | 44.51 | 150 | 0 | 16.66 – 72.36 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.45 | 8.14 | -3.66 | 1.14 – 3.75 |
| 2029 | 4.99 | 14.85 | -5 | 2.56 – 7.41 |
| 2031 | 7.52 | 20.26 | -5 | 4.1 – 10.95 |
| 2036 | 13.87 | 31.89 | -5 | 7.66 – 20.09 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.65 | 28.35 | 21.44 | 23.73 – 25.57 |
| 2028 | 22.73 | 29.14 | 17.17 | 20.72 – 24.73 |
| 2030 | 20.8 | 29.08 | 13.63 | 17.96 – 23.65 |
| 2035 | 16 | 27.7 | 5.85 | 11.76 – 20.23 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.1m | 1.1m | 979.4k | 1m – 1.1m |
| 2029 | 925.2k | 1.1m | 799.8k | 856.7k – 993.6k |
| 2031 | 798.6k | 972.9k | 636.7k | 707.9k – 889.3k |
| 2036 | 482.1k | 728.6k | 253.2k | 382.1k – 582.2k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.38 | 8.8 | 2.81 | 4.86 – 5.89 |
| 2028 | 6.99 | 12.92 | 2.54 | 5.91 – 8.06 |
| 2030 | 8.6 | 15 | 2.86 | 6.95 – 10.24 |
| 2035 | 12.62 | 15 | 4.5 | 9.25 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed655.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 652m | 953.4m | 350.7m | 595.5m – 708.6m |
| 2028 | 658.4m | 1.2bn | 136.4m | 546.9m – 769.9m |
| 2030 | 664.8m | 1.3bn | 0 | 508.4m – 821.1m |
| 2035 | 680.7m | 1.6bn | 0 | 425.9m – 935.4m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.85(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.01 | 2.04 | 0 | 0.84 – 1.18 |
| 2027 | 1.2 | 2.98 | 0 | 0.87 – 1.53 |
| 2029 | 1.3 | 3.59 | 0 | 0.84 – 1.75 |
| 2034 | 1.37 | 4.62 | 0 | 0.66 – 2.09 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed655.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 652m | 953.4m | 350.7m | 595.5m – 708.6m |
| 2028 | 658.4m | 1.2bn | 136.4m | 546.9m – 769.9m |
| 2030 | 664.8m | 1.3bn | 0 | 508.4m – 821.1m |
| 2035 | 680.7m | 1.6bn | 0 | 425.9m – 935.4m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.63 | 26.89 | 24.37 | 24.84 – 26.42 |
| 2028 | 24.86 | 26.6 | 23.11 | 23.02 – 26.7 |
| 2030 | 24.09 | 26.34 | 21.84 | 21.35 – 26.82 |
| 2035 | 22.16 | 25.34 | 18.98 | 17.56 – 26.76 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/DJI · API docs
