Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Dominica: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 37/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 12 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.61 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.26, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.16) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±0.5131 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Dominica: forward projections across 10 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-35.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -30 | -17.26 | -30 | -30 – -26.92 |
| 2028 | -30 | -7.93 | -30 | -30 – -24.06 |
| 2030 | -30 | -1.51 | -30 | -30 – -21.78 |
| 2035 | -30 | 10.3 | -30 | -30 – -16.98 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed723.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 744.7m | 858.1m | 646.4m | 719.3m – 770.1m |
| 2028 | 797.3m | 993.8m | 627m | 735.7m – 859m |
| 2030 | 850m | 1.1bn | 630.1m | 751.8m – 948.2m |
| 2035 | 981.5m | 1.3bn | 670.6m | 777.9m – 1.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.61 | 12 | -10 | 0.24 – 6.99 |
| 2028 | 4.91 | 12 | -10 | -1.06 – 10.89 |
| 2030 | 6.22 | 12 | -10 | -1.69 – 12 |
| 2035 | 9.47 | 12 | -10 | -2.53 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.3k | 13k | 9.9k | 10.9k – 11.7k |
| 2028 | 12.2k | 15.1k | 9.7k | 11.3k – 13.1k |
| 2030 | 13.1k | 16.9k | 9.8k | 11.6k – 14.6k |
| 2035 | 15.3k | 20.6k | 10.7k | 12.1k – 18.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed99.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 102.85 | 120.05 | 83.01 | 98.56 – 107.15 |
| 2028 | 108.76 | 138.56 | 74.39 | 98.96 – 118.57 |
| 2030 | 114.67 | 153.13 | 70.3 | 99.58 – 129.76 |
| 2035 | 129.45 | 183.84 | 66.69 | 100.37 – 158.52 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.6 | 5.68 | -0.7 | 1.87 – 3.32 |
| 2028 | 2.31 | 7.65 | -3.4 | 1.02 – 3.61 |
| 2030 | 2.03 | 8.92 | -5 | 0.34 – 3.72 |
| 2035 | 1.32 | 11.07 | -5 | -1.05 – 3.69 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 66k | 69.1k | 63.1k | 63.9k – 68k |
| 2028 | 65.6k | 68.7k | 62.7k | 60.7k – 70.4k |
| 2030 | 65.2k | 68.3k | 62.4k | 57.8k – 72.6k |
| 2035 | 64.3k | 67.3k | 61.5k | 51k – 77.6k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed164.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 156.1m | 199.2m | 112.9m | 146.9m – 165.2m |
| 2028 | 137.4m | 212.1m | 62.6m | 119.3m – 155.4m |
| 2030 | 118.7m | 215.2m | 22.1m | 94.4m – 142.9m |
| 2035 | 72m | 208.5m | 0 | 39.6m – 104.4m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.41 | 7.14 | 1.68 | 3.92 – 4.9 |
| 2028 | 5.06 | 9.78 | 0.33 | 4.09 – 6.02 |
| 2030 | 5.37 | 11.48 | 0 | 4.01 – 6.74 |
| 2035 | 5.63 | 14.26 | 0 | 3.41 – 7.85 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed164.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 156.1m | 199.2m | 112.9m | 146.9m – 165.2m |
| 2028 | 137.4m | 212.1m | 62.6m | 119.3m – 155.4m |
| 2030 | 118.7m | 215.2m | 22.1m | 94.4m – 142.9m |
| 2035 | 72m | 208.5m | 0 | 39.6m – 104.4m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/DMA · API docs
