Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Dominica: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 41/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 12 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.13 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.18, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.08) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±6.5115 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Dominica: forward projections across 10 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-33.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -30 | -18.29 | -30 | -30 – -27.13 |
| 2029 | -30 | -9.72 | -30 | -30 – -24.42 |
| 2031 | -30 | -3.81 | -30 | -30 – -22.26 |
| 2036 | -30 | 7.03 | -30 | -30 – -17.64 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed723.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 820m | 940.2m | 715.9m | 792.6m – 847.4m |
| 2029 | 894.6m | 1.1bn | 714.3m | 826.9m – 962.3m |
| 2031 | 969.2m | 1.2bn | 736.4m | 859.2m – 1.1bn |
| 2036 | 1.2bn | 1.5bn | 826.5m | 916m – 1.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.13 | 11.16 | -3.83 | 1.74 – 4.52 |
| 2029 | 3.02 | 12 | -9.04 | 0.55 – 5.48 |
| 2031 | 2.91 | 12 | -10 | -0.32 – 6.13 |
| 2036 | 2.63 | 12 | -10 | -2.03 – 7.28 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.7k | 12.5k | 9.1k | 10.3k – 11.1k |
| 2029 | 11.2k | 14.3k | 8.6k | 10.3k – 12.1k |
| 2031 | 11.8k | 15.8k | 8.3k | 10.4k – 13.2k |
| 2036 | 13.2k | 18.8k | 8.3k | 10.4k – 15.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed98.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 99.75 | 116.57 | 80.35 | 95.57 – 103.93 |
| 2029 | 102.66 | 131.78 | 69.05 | 93.25 – 112.06 |
| 2031 | 105.56 | 143.16 | 62.18 | 91.33 – 119.79 |
| 2036 | 112.82 | 165.99 | 51.47 | 86.59 – 139.05 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.25 | 6.25 | 0.03 | 2.53 – 3.97 |
| 2029 | 3.9 | 9.1 | -1.67 | 2.56 – 5.24 |
| 2031 | 4.55 | 11.27 | -2.64 | 2.7 – 6.41 |
| 2036 | 6.19 | 15.68 | -3.99 | 3.09 – 9.28 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 77.1k | 83.3k | 71.4k | 74.7k – 79.5k |
| 2029 | 88.3k | 99k | 78.3k | 81.7k – 94.8k |
| 2031 | 99.4k | 113.3k | 86.5k | 88.1k – 110.7k |
| 2036 | 127.3k | 146.9k | 109k | 100.9k – 153.7k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed164.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 156.1m | 199.2m | 112.9m | 146.9m – 165.2m |
| 2028 | 137.4m | 212.1m | 62.6m | 119.3m – 155.4m |
| 2030 | 118.7m | 215.2m | 22.1m | 94.4m – 142.9m |
| 2035 | 72m | 208.5m | 0 | 39.6m – 104.4m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.41 | 7.14 | 1.68 | 3.92 – 4.9 |
| 2028 | 5.06 | 9.78 | 0.33 | 4.09 – 6.02 |
| 2030 | 5.37 | 11.48 | 0 | 4.01 – 6.74 |
| 2035 | 5.63 | 14.26 | 0 | 3.41 – 7.85 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed164.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 156.1m | 199.2m | 112.9m | 146.9m – 165.2m |
| 2028 | 137.4m | 212.1m | 62.6m | 119.3m – 155.4m |
| 2030 | 118.7m | 215.2m | 22.1m | 94.4m – 142.9m |
| 2035 | 72m | 208.5m | 0 | 39.6m – 104.4m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/DMA · API docs
