Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Denmark: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 26/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.45 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.48, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.48) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-10% skill vs naive; realized ±4.5524 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Denmark: forward projections across 16 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed12.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 13.15 | 15.14 | 11.17 | 12.54 – 13.77 |
| 2029 | 14.86 | 18.3 | 11.42 | 13.44 – 16.28 |
| 2031 | 16.57 | 21.01 | 12.12 | 14.34 – 18.8 |
| 2036 | 20.84 | 27.12 | 14.55 | 16.22 – 25.45 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed70.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 72.58 | 82.33 | 64.12 | 70.02 – 75.13 |
| 2028 | 77.49 | 94.39 | 62.85 | 71.36 – 83.63 |
| 2030 | 82.41 | 104.22 | 63.51 | 72.7 – 92.12 |
| 2035 | 94.71 | 125.55 | 67.98 | 75.06 – 114.36 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed462.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 526.5bn | 567.5bn | 491bn | 510.2bn – 542.9bn |
| 2029 | 583bn | 654bn | 521.5bn | 539.9bn – 626.1bn |
| 2031 | 639.5bn | 731.1bn | 560bn | 566.9bn – 712.1bn |
| 2036 | 780.6bn | 910.2bn | 668.3bn | 618.7bn – 942.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.45 | 7.54 | -3.83 | 0.41 – 2.49 |
| 2029 | 0.27 | 10.82 | -8.88 | -1.54 – 2.07 |
| 2031 | -0.91 | 12 | -10 | -3.26 – 1.44 |
| 2036 | -3.87 | 12 | -10 | -7.69 – -0.04 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed77k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 86.9k | 93.9k | 80.8k | 84.2k – 89.6k |
| 2029 | 95.5k | 107.6k | 84.9k | 88.4k – 102.5k |
| 2031 | 104k | 119.8k | 90.4k | 92.2k – 115.8k |
| 2036 | 125.5k | 147.7k | 106.2k | 99.5k – 151.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 25.74 | 32.35 | 18.11 | 24.31 – 27.17 |
| 2029 | 22.42 | 33.87 | 9.2 | 19.58 – 25.25 |
| 2031 | 19.09 | 33.88 | 2.04 | 15.29 – 22.9 |
| 2036 | 10.79 | 31.69 | 0 | 5.85 – 15.73 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed59.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 60.66 | 67.69 | 53.64 | 58.62 – 62.71 |
| 2028 | 63.78 | 75.95 | 51.61 | 58.86 – 68.7 |
| 2030 | 66.9 | 82.6 | 51.19 | 59.14 – 74.65 |
| 2035 | 74.69 | 96.9 | 52.48 | 59.2 – 90.18 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.07 | 8.95 | -5 | 0.51 – 3.63 |
| 2029 | 2.22 | 14.14 | -5 | -0.53 – 4.97 |
| 2031 | 2.37 | 17.75 | -5 | -1.23 – 5.97 |
| 2036 | 2.74 | 24.5 | -5 | -2.52 – 8 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.94 | 9.78 | -5 | 0.18 – 3.71 |
| 2029 | 2.08 | 15.66 | -5 | -1.03 – 5.19 |
| 2031 | 2.13 | 19.66 | -5 | -1.92 – 6.19 |
| 2036 | 2.16 | 26.94 | -5 | -3.68 – 8 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.76 | 23.41 | 20.32 | 21.08 – 22.43 |
| 2028 | 21.48 | 24.35 | 19 | 19.89 – 23.07 |
| 2030 | 21.21 | 24.91 | 18 | 18.8 – 23.61 |
| 2035 | 20.51 | 25.75 | 15.98 | 16.26 – 24.77 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6m | 6.3m | 5.8m | 5.8m – 6.2m |
| 2029 | 6.1m | 6.3m | 5.8m | 5.6m – 6.5m |
| 2031 | 6.1m | 6.4m | 5.8m | 5.4m – 6.8m |
| 2036 | 6.2m | 6.5m | 5.9m | 4.9m – 7.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.44 | 11.93 | -2.93 | 2.32 – 4.56 |
| 2028 | 5.44 | 15 | -5.59 | 3.34 – 7.54 |
| 2030 | 7.43 | 15 | -6.8 | 4.47 – 10.4 |
| 2035 | 12.42 | 15 | -7.71 | 7.08 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed118.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 124.3bn | 138.8bn | 109.8bn | 120.1bn – 128.5bn |
| 2028 | 139.9bn | 165bn | 114.8bn | 129.3bn – 150.4bn |
| 2030 | 155.4bn | 187.8bn | 123.1bn | 137.8bn – 173.1bn |
| 2035 | 194.4bn | 240.1bn | 148.6bn | 154bn – 234.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.4(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.41 | 5.22 | 3.59 | 4.21 – 4.6 |
| 2027 | 4.42 | 5.83 | 3 | 3.99 – 4.84 |
| 2029 | 4.42 | 6.25 | 2.59 | 3.79 – 5.05 |
| 2034 | 4.42 | 7 | 1.84 | 3.32 – 5.53 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed127.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 134.7bn | 150bn | 119.5bn | 130.2bn – 139.2bn |
| 2028 | 152.9bn | 179.4bn | 126.5bn | 141.6bn – 164.3bn |
| 2030 | 171.2bn | 205.3bn | 137.1bn | 151.7bn – 190.6bn |
| 2035 | 216.8bn | 265bn | 168.5bn | 171.8bn – 261.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.69 | 5 | 0.39 | 2.3 – 3.09 |
| 2029 | 2.28 | 6.27 | 0 | 1.56 – 3 |
| 2031 | 1.86 | 7.01 | 0 | 0.92 – 2.8 |
| 2036 | 0.82 | 8.11 | 0 | 0 – 2.1 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/DNK · API docs
