Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Denmark: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 29/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 22 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.76 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.42, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.54) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-10% skill vs naive; realized ±1.7565 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Denmark: forward projections across 16 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed12.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.47 | 15.33 | 11.61 | 12.87 – 14.07 |
| 2028 | 15.41 | 18.63 | 12.19 | 14.01 – 16.81 |
| 2030 | 17.35 | 21.51 | 13.19 | 15.11 – 19.59 |
| 2035 | 22.2 | 28.09 | 16.32 | 17.45 – 26.96 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed70.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 72.58 | 82.33 | 64.12 | 70.02 – 75.13 |
| 2028 | 77.49 | 94.39 | 62.85 | 71.36 – 83.63 |
| 2030 | 82.41 | 104.22 | 63.51 | 72.7 – 92.12 |
| 2035 | 94.71 | 125.55 | 67.98 | 75.06 – 114.36 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed462.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 477bn | 520.5bn | 439.3bn | 462.2bn – 491.8bn |
| 2028 | 514.1bn | 589.4bn | 448.8bn | 476.1bn – 552.1bn |
| 2030 | 551.2bn | 648.5bn | 466.9bn | 488.6bn – 613.8bn |
| 2035 | 644bn | 781.6bn | 524.8bn | 510.4bn – 777.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.76 | 12 | -4.76 | 2.06 – 5.45 |
| 2028 | 5.52 | 12 | -9.23 | 2.41 – 8.62 |
| 2030 | 7.27 | 12 | -10 | 3.03 – 11.52 |
| 2035 | 11.67 | 12 | -10 | 4.63 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed77k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 79k | 86.5k | 72.6k | 76.6k – 81.5k |
| 2028 | 84.5k | 97.3k | 73.3k | 78.2k – 90.7k |
| 2030 | 89.9k | 106.5k | 75.5k | 79.7k – 100.1k |
| 2035 | 103.4k | 126.9k | 83k | 82k – 124.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.02 | 32.58 | 18.46 | 24.6 – 27.45 |
| 2028 | 23.07 | 34.42 | 9.97 | 20.21 – 25.92 |
| 2030 | 20.11 | 34.77 | 3.2 | 16.25 – 23.98 |
| 2035 | 12.72 | 33.46 | 0 | 7.5 – 17.95 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed59.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 60.66 | 67.69 | 53.64 | 58.62 – 62.71 |
| 2028 | 63.78 | 75.95 | 51.61 | 58.86 – 68.7 |
| 2030 | 66.9 | 82.6 | 51.19 | 59.14 – 74.65 |
| 2035 | 74.69 | 96.9 | 52.48 | 59.2 – 90.18 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.34 | 9.32 | -5 | 0.76 – 3.93 |
| 2028 | 3.07 | 15.16 | -5 | 0.25 – 5.9 |
| 2030 | 3.8 | 19.4 | -5 | 0.04 – 7.57 |
| 2035 | 5.63 | 27.69 | -5 | -0.16 – 11.42 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.07 | 9.91 | -5 | 0.3 – 3.84 |
| 2029 | 2.14 | 15.71 | -5 | -0.97 – 5.25 |
| 2031 | 2.17 | 19.69 | -5 | -1.89 – 6.22 |
| 2036 | 2.18 | 26.96 | -5 | -3.66 – 8.02 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.76 | 23.41 | 20.32 | 21.08 – 22.43 |
| 2028 | 21.48 | 24.35 | 19 | 19.89 – 23.07 |
| 2030 | 21.21 | 24.91 | 18 | 18.8 – 23.61 |
| 2035 | 20.51 | 25.75 | 15.98 | 16.26 – 24.77 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6m | 6.3m | 5.7m | 5.8m – 6.2m |
| 2028 | 6m | 6.3m | 5.8m | 5.6m – 6.5m |
| 2030 | 6.1m | 6.4m | 5.8m | 5.4m – 6.8m |
| 2035 | 6.2m | 6.4m | 5.9m | 4.9m – 7.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.44 | 11.93 | -2.93 | 2.32 – 4.56 |
| 2028 | 5.44 | 15 | -5.59 | 3.34 – 7.54 |
| 2030 | 7.43 | 15 | -6.8 | 4.47 – 10.4 |
| 2035 | 12.42 | 15 | -7.71 | 7.08 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed118.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 124.3bn | 138.8bn | 109.8bn | 120.1bn – 128.5bn |
| 2028 | 139.9bn | 165bn | 114.8bn | 129.3bn – 150.4bn |
| 2030 | 155.4bn | 187.8bn | 123.1bn | 137.8bn – 173.1bn |
| 2035 | 194.4bn | 240.1bn | 148.6bn | 154bn – 234.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.4(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.41 | 5.22 | 3.59 | 4.21 – 4.6 |
| 2027 | 4.42 | 5.83 | 3 | 3.99 – 4.84 |
| 2029 | 4.42 | 6.25 | 2.59 | 3.79 – 5.05 |
| 2034 | 4.42 | 7 | 1.84 | 3.32 – 5.53 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed127.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 134.7bn | 150bn | 119.5bn | 130.2bn – 139.2bn |
| 2028 | 152.9bn | 179.4bn | 126.5bn | 141.6bn – 164.3bn |
| 2030 | 171.2bn | 205.3bn | 137.1bn | 151.7bn – 190.6bn |
| 2035 | 216.8bn | 265bn | 168.5bn | 171.8bn – 261.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.56 | 6.54 | 4.57 | 5.32 – 5.8 |
| 2028 | 5.61 | 7.32 | 3.9 | 5.08 – 6.14 |
| 2030 | 5.67 | 7.87 | 3.46 | 4.88 – 6.46 |
| 2035 | 5.8 | 8.92 | 2.69 | 4.4 – 7.21 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/DNK · API docs
