Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
East Asia & Pacific (excluding high income): macro conditions look supportive (pressure 23/100); the economy is in slowdown; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.95 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.54, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.60) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±3.4915 over 25) · a track record, not a guarantee
East Asia & Pacific (excluding high income): forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed25.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.96 | 28.17 | 24.04 | 25.15 – 26.76 |
| 2028 | 26.83 | 30.66 | 23.51 | 24.85 – 28.82 |
| 2030 | 27.7 | 32.65 | 23.42 | 24.56 – 30.85 |
| 2035 | 29.89 | 36.89 | 23.82 | 23.69 – 36.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.2T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.8T | 26T | 21.9T | 23.1T – 24.5T |
| 2028 | 25.2T | 29.1T | 21.9T | 23.4T – 27.1T |
| 2030 | 26.7T | 31.7T | 22.3T | 23.6T – 29.7T |
| 2035 | 30.3T | 37.3T | 24.1T | 24T – 36.5T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.95 | 12 | -1.27 | 3.68 – 6.23 |
| 2028 | 5 | 12 | -5.78 | 2.69 – 7.32 |
| 2030 | 5.06 | 12 | -8.86 | 1.98 – 8.14 |
| 2035 | 5.19 | 12 | -10 | 0.57 – 9.8 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.1k | 12.1k | 10.2k | 10.7k – 11.4k |
| 2028 | 11.7k | 13.5k | 10.1k | 10.9k – 12.6k |
| 2030 | 12.4k | 14.7k | 10.3k | 11k – 13.8k |
| 2035 | 14k | 17.3k | 11.1k | 11.1k – 16.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.93 | 24.05 | 19.8 | 21.25 – 22.61 |
| 2028 | 22.1 | 25.77 | 18.42 | 20.46 – 23.73 |
| 2030 | 22.26 | 27.01 | 17.51 | 19.74 – 24.79 |
| 2035 | 22.69 | 29.41 | 15.97 | 17.98 – 27.39 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.32 | 6.64 | -2.31 | 1.32 – 3.31 |
| 2028 | 2.15 | 9.64 | -5 | 0.39 – 3.91 |
| 2030 | 1.99 | 11.65 | -5 | -0.32 – 4.29 |
| 2035 | 1.57 | 15.24 | -5 | -1.71 – 4.85 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.66(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 37.31 | 39.27 | 35.61 | 36.15 – 38.47 |
| 2027 | 36.4 | 38.31 | 34.74 | 33.7 – 39.09 |
| 2029 | 35.48 | 37.91 | 33.38 | 31.45 – 39.51 |
| 2034 | 33.19 | 36.62 | 30.22 | 26.3 – 40.07 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.1bn | 2.2bn | 2bn | 2.1bn – 2.2bn |
| 2028 | 2.1bn | 2.2bn | 2.1bn | 2bn – 2.3bn |
| 2030 | 2.1bn | 2.3bn | 2.1bn | 1.9bn – 2.4bn |
| 2035 | 2.2bn | 2.3bn | 2.1bn | 1.7bn – 2.6bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.77 | 8.16 | 2.23 | 4.27 – 5.27 |
| 2028 | 5.16 | 11.04 | 0.76 | 4.18 – 6.14 |
| 2030 | 5.56 | 13.14 | -0.13 | 4.16 – 6.95 |
| 2035 | 6.54 | 15 | -1.51 | 4.15 – 8.93 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.53 | 14.12 | 8.93 | 10.95 – 12.11 |
| 2028 | 11.79 | 16.28 | 7.29 | 10.53 – 13.04 |
| 2030 | 11.91 | 17.72 | 6.11 | 10.07 – 13.75 |
| 2035 | 12.01 | 20.23 | 3.8 | 8.84 – 15.19 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.83 | 4.1 | 3.56 | 3.71 – 3.95 |
| 2028 | 3.65 | 4.12 | 3.18 | 3.38 – 3.92 |
| 2030 | 3.46 | 4.07 | 2.86 | 3.07 – 3.86 |
| 2035 | 3.01 | 3.87 | 2.15 | 2.39 – 3.64 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/EAP · API docs
