Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
EAQ: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 39/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.6 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.22, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.32) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive) · a track record, not a guarantee
EAQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed4.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.63 | 5.96 | 3.31 | 4.29 – 4.98 |
| 2029 | 5.29 | 7.59 | 3 | 4.57 – 6.02 |
| 2031 | 5.95 | 8.92 | 2.99 | 4.87 – 7.04 |
| 2036 | 7.61 | 11.8 | 3.42 | 5.54 – 9.68 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.6T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 29.3T | 31.9T | 27.1T | 28.4T – 30.2T |
| 2029 | 31.1T | 35.5T | 27.2T | 28.8T – 33.4T |
| 2031 | 32.8T | 38.6T | 27.8T | 29.1T – 36.6T |
| 2036 | 37.2T | 45.4T | 30.2T | 29.5T – 44.9T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.6 | 8.14 | -0.34 | 2.78 – 4.41 |
| 2029 | 3.12 | 10.98 | -3.7 | 1.66 – 4.58 |
| 2031 | 2.63 | 12 | -6.16 | 0.73 – 4.54 |
| 2036 | 1.43 | 12 | -10 | -1.19 – 4.05 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.8k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 18.2k | 19.8k | 16.8k | 17.7k – 18.8k |
| 2029 | 19.4k | 22.1k | 17k | 17.9k – 20.8k |
| 2031 | 20.5k | 24k | 17.4k | 18.2k – 22.8k |
| 2036 | 23.3k | 28.3k | 19k | 18.5k – 28.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed114(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 116.75 | 124.04 | 108.34 | 113.13 – 120.37 |
| 2029 | 122.25 | 134.87 | 107.69 | 113.21 – 131.3 |
| 2031 | 127.76 | 144.05 | 108.96 | 113.25 – 142.26 |
| 2036 | 141.52 | 164.56 | 114.93 | 112.16 – 170.87 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.84 | 3.72 | -0.17 | 1.4 – 2.29 |
| 2029 | 2.96 | 6.21 | -0.52 | 2.1 – 3.82 |
| 2031 | 4.08 | 8.28 | -0.41 | 2.83 – 5.34 |
| 2036 | 6.88 | 12.81 | 0.53 | 4.47 – 9.3 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.6bn | 1.7bn | 1.5bn | 1.6bn – 1.7bn |
| 2029 | 1.6bn | 1.7bn | 1.5bn | 1.5bn – 1.7bn |
| 2031 | 1.6bn | 1.7bn | 1.5bn | 1.4bn – 1.8bn |
| 2036 | 1.6bn | 1.7bn | 1.5bn | 1.3bn – 1.9bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/EAQ · API docs
