Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
EAQ: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 24/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.5 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.52, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.50) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±0.2994 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
EAQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.15 | 6.36 | 3.93 | 4.81 – 5.48 |
| 2028 | 5.84 | 7.94 | 3.73 | 5.13 – 6.55 |
| 2030 | 6.53 | 9.25 | 3.81 | 5.45 – 7.6 |
| 2035 | 8.25 | 12.1 | 4.41 | 6.15 – 10.36 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.6T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.8T | 30.4T | 25.6T | 26.9T – 28.7T |
| 2028 | 29T | 33.5T | 25.2T | 26.9T – 31.2T |
| 2030 | 30.3T | 36T | 25.3T | 26.8T – 33.7T |
| 2035 | 33.3T | 41.4T | 26.3T | 26.4T – 40.2T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.5 | 12 | -2.1 | 3.16 – 5.84 |
| 2028 | 4.74 | 12 | -6.68 | 2.32 – 7.17 |
| 2030 | 4.99 | 12 | -9.76 | 1.75 – 8.22 |
| 2035 | 5.6 | 12 | -10 | 0.69 – 10.51 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.4k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.2k | 18.8k | 15.9k | 16.7k – 17.8k |
| 2028 | 18k | 20.8k | 15.7k | 16.7k – 19.4k |
| 2030 | 18.8k | 22.4k | 15.8k | 16.7k – 21k |
| 2035 | 20.8k | 25.8k | 16.5k | 16.5k – 25.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed109.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 111.13 | 118.45 | 102.68 | 107.69 – 114.58 |
| 2028 | 115.79 | 128.47 | 101.16 | 107.23 – 124.36 |
| 2030 | 120.46 | 136.83 | 101.57 | 106.78 – 134.13 |
| 2035 | 132.12 | 155.27 | 105.4 | 104.71 – 159.52 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.7 | 2.58 | -1.31 | 0.27 – 1.14 |
| 2028 | 0.56 | 3.81 | -2.92 | -0.2 – 1.33 |
| 2030 | 0.42 | 4.62 | -4.07 | -0.59 – 1.43 |
| 2035 | 0.07 | 6 | -5 | -1.4 – 1.55 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6bn | 1.7bn | 1.5bn | 1.6bn – 1.7bn |
| 2028 | 1.6bn | 1.7bn | 1.5bn | 1.5bn – 1.7bn |
| 2030 | 1.6bn | 1.7bn | 1.5bn | 1.4bn – 1.8bn |
| 2035 | 1.6bn | 1.7bn | 1.5bn | 1.3bn – 1.9bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/EAQ · API docs
