Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Early-demographic dividend: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 26/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.74 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.48, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.48) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-10% skill vs naive; realized ±1.1042 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Early-demographic dividend: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed25.69(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.87 | 30.43 | 21.92 | 24.81 – 26.94 |
| 2028 | 26.23 | 34.13 | 19.38 | 23.84 – 28.62 |
| 2030 | 26.58 | 36.78 | 17.75 | 23 – 30.17 |
| 2035 | 27.47 | 41.89 | 14.97 | 21.02 – 33.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17T | 18.7T | 15.6T | 16.5T – 17.6T |
| 2028 | 18.7T | 21.6T | 16.2T | 17.3T – 20.1T |
| 2030 | 20.3T | 24T | 17.1T | 18T – 22.6T |
| 2035 | 24.4T | 29.7T | 19.8T | 19.3T – 29.5T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.74 | 12 | -4.55 | 2.87 – 6.6 |
| 2028 | 5.55 | 12 | -10 | 2.19 – 8.91 |
| 2030 | 6.37 | 12 | -10 | 1.86 – 10.87 |
| 2035 | 8.4 | 12 | -10 | 1.41 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.7k | 5.2k | 4.3k | 4.6k – 4.9k |
| 2028 | 5.1k | 5.9k | 4.3k | 4.7k – 5.5k |
| 2030 | 5.5k | 6.5k | 4.5k | 4.8k – 6.1k |
| 2035 | 6.4k | 7.9k | 5k | 5.1k – 7.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.77 | 31.74 | 23.79 | 26.71 – 28.82 |
| 2028 | 28.12 | 35.01 | 21.24 | 25.72 – 30.53 |
| 2030 | 28.48 | 37.38 | 19.59 | 24.84 – 32.12 |
| 2035 | 29.38 | 41.96 | 16.81 | 22.76 – 36.01 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.41 | 7.4 | -0.85 | 2.48 – 4.35 |
| 2028 | 3.3 | 10.19 | -4.1 | 1.61 – 4.98 |
| 2030 | 3.18 | 12.08 | -5 | 0.95 – 5.41 |
| 2035 | 2.88 | 15.48 | -5 | -0.37 – 6.14 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.26 | 27.64 | 25.07 | 25.45 – 27.07 |
| 2028 | 26.54 | 28.61 | 24.74 | 24.57 – 28.5 |
| 2030 | 26.81 | 29.48 | 24.49 | 23.77 – 29.85 |
| 2035 | 27.5 | 31.28 | 24.22 | 21.79 – 33.2 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.6bn | 3.8bn | 3.4bn | 3.5bn – 3.7bn |
| 2028 | 3.6bn | 3.8bn | 3.5bn | 3.4bn – 3.9bn |
| 2030 | 3.7bn | 3.8bn | 3.5bn | 3.3bn – 4.1bn |
| 2035 | 3.8bn | 4bn | 3.6bn | 3bn – 4.6bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.53 | 9.49 | -0.94 | 2.73 – 4.33 |
| 2028 | 4.58 | 14.91 | -3.16 | 3.07 – 6.09 |
| 2030 | 5.64 | 15 | -4.36 | 3.52 – 7.75 |
| 2035 | 8.27 | 15 | -5.87 | 4.59 – 11.95 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.3 | 13.71 | 6.89 | 9.61 – 10.99 |
| 2028 | 11.53 | 17.44 | 5.62 | 10.07 – 12.99 |
| 2030 | 12.14 | 19.77 | 4.51 | 10 – 14.28 |
| 2035 | 12.62 | 23.41 | 1.83 | 8.95 – 16.29 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.68 | 5.52 | 3.85 | 4.48 – 4.89 |
| 2028 | 3.75 | 5.19 | 2.31 | 3.35 – 4.15 |
| 2030 | 2.81 | 4.67 | 0.95 | 2.3 – 3.32 |
| 2035 | 0.47 | 3.1 | 0 | 0 – 1.03 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/EAR · API docs
