Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
East Asia & Pacific: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 19/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.09 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.62, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.58) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±3.6012 over 25) · a track record, not a guarantee
East Asia & Pacific: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed32.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.24 | 36.53 | 30.39 | 32.21 – 34.27 |
| 2028 | 34.65 | 40.35 | 29.72 | 32.09 – 37.22 |
| 2030 | 36.07 | 43.42 | 29.69 | 31.97 – 40.16 |
| 2035 | 39.59 | 49.99 | 30.58 | 31.38 – 47.81 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.7T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.3T | 37.2T | 31.7T | 33.2T – 35.3T |
| 2028 | 35.9T | 41T | 31.5T | 33.3T – 38.6T |
| 2030 | 37.6T | 44.2T | 31.8T | 33.3T – 41.8T |
| 2035 | 41.7T | 51T | 33.5T | 33T – 50.3T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.09 | 10.92 | -1.82 | 2.89 – 5.29 |
| 2028 | 4.33 | 12 | -5.91 | 2.15 – 6.51 |
| 2030 | 4.57 | 12 | -8.66 | 1.66 – 7.48 |
| 2035 | 5.17 | 12 | -10 | 0.75 – 9.6 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.3k | 15.6k | 13.2k | 13.9k – 14.8k |
| 2028 | 15k | 17.1k | 13.1k | 13.9k – 16.1k |
| 2030 | 15.6k | 18.4k | 13.2k | 13.8k – 17.4k |
| 2035 | 17.2k | 21.2k | 13.8k | 13.6k – 20.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.85 | 32.06 | 25.65 | 27.9 – 29.8 |
| 2028 | 29.65 | 35.2 | 24.11 | 27.38 – 31.93 |
| 2030 | 30.45 | 37.62 | 23.29 | 26.92 – 33.99 |
| 2035 | 32.46 | 42.59 | 22.33 | 25.71 – 39.2 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.95 | 5.73 | -2.1 | 1.08 – 2.82 |
| 2028 | 1.44 | 7.99 | -5 | -0.08 – 2.96 |
| 2030 | 0.93 | 9.38 | -5 | -1.02 – 2.89 |
| 2035 | -0.34 | 11.61 | -5 | -3.15 – 2.47 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.13(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 33.98 | 35.76 | 32.43 | 32.92 – 35.03 |
| 2027 | 33.58 | 35.34 | 32.05 | 31.1 – 36.06 |
| 2029 | 33.18 | 35.21 | 31.43 | 29.42 – 36.95 |
| 2034 | 32.2 | 35.06 | 29.72 | 25.52 – 38.87 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.4bn | 2.5bn | 2.3bn | 2.3bn – 2.5bn |
| 2028 | 2.4bn | 2.5bn | 2.3bn | 2.2bn – 2.6bn |
| 2030 | 2.4bn | 2.5bn | 2.3bn | 2.1bn – 2.7bn |
| 2035 | 2.4bn | 2.5bn | 2.3bn | 1.9bn – 2.9bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.2 | 7.68 | 1.58 | 3.69 – 4.7 |
| 2028 | 4.67 | 10.7 | 0.14 | 3.69 – 5.64 |
| 2030 | 5.14 | 12.93 | -0.71 | 3.75 – 6.52 |
| 2035 | 6.31 | 15 | -1.96 | 3.92 – 8.7 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.55 | 14.22 | 8.87 | 10.95 – 12.14 |
| 2028 | 11.78 | 16.42 | 7.14 | 10.5 – 13.05 |
| 2030 | 11.89 | 17.88 | 5.9 | 10.02 – 13.76 |
| 2035 | 11.98 | 20.45 | 3.51 | 8.77 – 15.19 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.71 | 3.94 | 3.48 | 3.59 – 3.82 |
| 2028 | 3.51 | 3.91 | 3.11 | 3.25 – 3.77 |
| 2030 | 3.31 | 3.82 | 2.8 | 2.94 – 3.69 |
| 2035 | 2.82 | 3.54 | 2.09 | 2.23 – 3.4 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/EAS · API docs
