Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Europe & Central Asia (excluding high income): macro conditions look balanced (pressure 38/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.01 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.24, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.14) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-11% skill vs naive; realized ±0.2285 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Europe & Central Asia (excluding high income): forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed29.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.23 | 36.42 | 21.14 | 26.61 – 29.85 |
| 2028 | 26.66 | 40.84 | 14.37 | 23.35 – 29.96 |
| 2030 | 25.09 | 43.39 | 9.22 | 20.46 – 29.71 |
| 2035 | 21.15 | 47.04 | 0 | 14.07 – 28.23 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3T | 3.4T | 2.8T | 2.9T – 3.1T |
| 2028 | 3.6T | 4.1T | 3.1T | 3.3T – 3.9T |
| 2030 | 4.1T | 4.8T | 3.5T | 3.7T – 4.6T |
| 2035 | 5.5T | 6.5T | 4.7T | 4.4T – 6.7T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.01 | 12 | -4.93 | 2.23 – 5.79 |
| 2028 | 3.61 | 12 | -10 | 0.46 – 6.76 |
| 2030 | 3.21 | 12 | -10 | -0.89 – 7.31 |
| 2035 | 2.21 | 12 | -10 | -3.58 – 7.99 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12k | 13.2k | 10.9k | 11.6k – 12.3k |
| 2028 | 14.1k | 16.2k | 12.2k | 13k – 15.1k |
| 2030 | 16.2k | 19k | 13.8k | 14.4k – 18k |
| 2035 | 21.5k | 25.4k | 18.1k | 17k – 26k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.44 | 38.75 | 26.13 | 30.96 – 33.93 |
| 2028 | 31.78 | 42.72 | 20.85 | 28.58 – 34.98 |
| 2030 | 31.13 | 45.24 | 17.01 | 26.48 – 35.78 |
| 2035 | 29.48 | 49.44 | 9.52 | 21.71 – 37.25 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.46 | 15.89 | -3.64 | 4.27 – 8.66 |
| 2028 | 7.79 | 24.12 | -5 | 3.8 – 11.79 |
| 2030 | 9.13 | 30.2 | -5 | 3.72 – 14.53 |
| 2035 | 12.46 | 42.26 | -5 | 3.86 – 21.06 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.28 | 31.09 | 25.84 | 27.4 – 29.15 |
| 2028 | 29.38 | 34.26 | 25.16 | 27.21 – 31.56 |
| 2030 | 30.49 | 36.78 | 25.03 | 27.03 – 33.95 |
| 2035 | 33.25 | 42.15 | 25.53 | 26.35 – 40.14 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed253.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 253.4m | 265.4m | 242.3m | 245.5m – 261.2m |
| 2028 | 256.6m | 268.7m | 245.3m | 237.6m – 275.5m |
| 2030 | 259.7m | 272m | 248.3m | 230.3m – 289.2m |
| 2035 | 267.7m | 280.3m | 255.9m | 212.2m – 323.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.9 | 8.55 | -1.34 | 2.15 – 3.65 |
| 2028 | 1.47 | 11.26 | -5.86 | 0.18 – 2.77 |
| 2030 | 0.05 | 12.68 | -9.43 | -1.61 – 1.71 |
| 2035 | -3.52 | 14.34 | -10 | -6.32 – -0.72 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.49(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.63 | 7.24 | 4.02 | 5.29 – 5.97 |
| 2027 | 5.79 | 8.58 | 3.01 | 5.09 – 6.5 |
| 2029 | 5.87 | 9.47 | 2.27 | 4.85 – 6.9 |
| 2034 | 5.94 | 11.03 | 0.85 | 4.21 – 7.67 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.31 | 7.1 | 5.51 | 6.08 – 6.53 |
| 2028 | 5.23 | 6.61 | 3.86 | 4.77 – 5.7 |
| 2030 | 4.16 | 5.94 | 2.38 | 3.55 – 4.76 |
| 2035 | 1.47 | 3.99 | 0 | 0.85 – 2.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ECA · API docs
