Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Europe & Central Asia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 40/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.09 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.20, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.14) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±6.1311 over 25) · a track record, not a guarantee
Europe & Central Asia: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed43.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.87 | 49.64 | 38.87 | 42.34 – 45.39 |
| 2028 | 44.18 | 54.17 | 35.52 | 40.63 – 47.72 |
| 2030 | 44.48 | 57.38 | 33.3 | 39.08 – 49.89 |
| 2035 | 45.25 | 63.5 | 29.44 | 35.41 – 55.1 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.3T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.7T | 36.7T | 31T | 32.6T – 34.7T |
| 2028 | 37.2T | 42.5T | 32.7T | 34.5T – 40T |
| 2030 | 40.8T | 47.6T | 34.9T | 36.2T – 45.4T |
| 2035 | 49.7T | 59.3T | 41.3T | 39.4T – 60T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.09 | 12 | -8.09 | 0.1 – 4.08 |
| 2028 | 2.87 | 12 | -10 | -0.66 – 6.4 |
| 2030 | 3.65 | 12 | -10 | -1.01 – 8.32 |
| 2035 | 5.61 | 12 | -10 | -1.47 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36k | 39.3k | 33.2k | 34.9k – 37.1k |
| 2028 | 39.7k | 45.3k | 34.8k | 36.7k – 42.6k |
| 2030 | 43.3k | 50.6k | 37k | 38.4k – 48.2k |
| 2035 | 52.4k | 62.8k | 43.5k | 41.6k – 63.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.23 | 46.6 | 35.86 | 39.74 – 42.71 |
| 2028 | 41.65 | 50.95 | 32.35 | 38.23 – 45.07 |
| 2030 | 42.07 | 54.08 | 30.07 | 36.87 – 47.28 |
| 2035 | 43.13 | 60.11 | 26.16 | 33.63 – 52.63 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.57 | 13.71 | -5 | 2.47 – 6.67 |
| 2028 | 5.96 | 21.79 | -5 | 2.16 – 9.75 |
| 2030 | 7.34 | 27.78 | -5 | 2.22 – 12.46 |
| 2035 | 10.8 | 39.71 | -5 | 2.66 – 18.93 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.91 | 23.06 | 20.91 | 21.23 – 22.59 |
| 2028 | 21.92 | 23.55 | 20.5 | 20.3 – 23.54 |
| 2030 | 21.93 | 24.04 | 20.1 | 19.44 – 24.42 |
| 2035 | 21.96 | 24.94 | 19.37 | 17.4 – 26.51 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed932.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 932.1m | 976.1m | 891.2m | 903.2m – 961m |
| 2028 | 936.4m | 980.7m | 895.3m | 867.1m – 1bn |
| 2030 | 940.8m | 985.2m | 899.5m | 834m – 1bn |
| 2035 | 951.7m | 996.6m | 909.9m | 754.3m – 1.1bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.68 | 11.36 | -5.58 | 0.44 – 2.91 |
| 2028 | 1.35 | 15 | -10 | -0.81 – 3.51 |
| 2030 | 1.02 | 15 | -10 | -1.77 – 3.81 |
| 2035 | 0.2 | 15 | -10 | -3.79 – 4.18 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.14 | 9.9 | 4.38 | 6.6 – 7.67 |
| 2028 | 7.83 | 12.61 | 3.05 | 6.72 – 8.94 |
| 2030 | 8.17 | 14.34 | 2 | 6.57 – 9.77 |
| 2035 | 8.44 | 17.17 | 0 | 5.75 – 11.12 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.97 | 5.69 | 4.26 | 4.78 – 5.16 |
| 2028 | 4.2 | 5.44 | 2.96 | 3.81 – 4.59 |
| 2030 | 3.42 | 5.02 | 1.82 | 2.9 – 3.94 |
| 2035 | 1.49 | 3.75 | 0 | 0.9 – 2.07 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-01 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ECS · API docs
