Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Ecuador: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 35/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.45 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.30, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.44) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±7.7474 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Ecuador: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed5.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6 | 9.08 | 2.92 | 5.27 – 6.72 |
| 2029 | 7.6 | 12.93 | 2.26 | 6.14 – 9.05 |
| 2031 | 9.19 | 16.09 | 2.3 | 7.05 – 11.34 |
| 2036 | 13.19 | 22.93 | 3.44 | 9.09 – 17.29 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.44(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.72 | 37.11 | 28.91 | 31.57 – 33.87 |
| 2028 | 35.28 | 42.88 | 28.68 | 32.5 – 38.06 |
| 2030 | 37.84 | 47.66 | 29.32 | 33.41 – 42.27 |
| 2035 | 44.23 | 58.12 | 32.2 | 35.06 – 53.41 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed130.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 142.6bn | 157.4bn | 129.8bn | 138.2bn – 147bn |
| 2029 | 153.8bn | 179.4bn | 131.6bn | 142.4bn – 165.2bn |
| 2031 | 165.1bn | 198.1bn | 136.4bn | 146.3bn – 183.8bn |
| 2036 | 193.2bn | 240bn | 152.6bn | 153.1bn – 233.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.45 | 11.15 | -3.22 | 2.11 – 4.79 |
| 2029 | 5.23 | 12 | -6.33 | 2.76 – 7.71 |
| 2031 | 7.02 | 12 | -7.91 | 3.58 – 10.45 |
| 2036 | 11.47 | 12 | -9.63 | 5.58 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.8k | 8.6k | 7k | 7.5k – 8k |
| 2029 | 8.3k | 9.8k | 7k | 7.7k – 8.9k |
| 2031 | 8.9k | 10.8k | 7.2k | 7.8k – 9.9k |
| 2036 | 10.2k | 12.9k | 7.8k | 8.1k – 12.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.4(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55.37 | 63.27 | 46.26 | 53.27 – 57.47 |
| 2028 | 57.31 | 70.99 | 41.53 | 52.46 – 62.17 |
| 2030 | 59.25 | 76.91 | 38.88 | 51.8 – 66.71 |
| 2035 | 64.1 | 89.07 | 35.29 | 50.01 – 78.2 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.71 | 34.99 | 22.44 | 27.3 – 30.13 |
| 2028 | 30.31 | 41.17 | 19.44 | 27.19 – 33.43 |
| 2030 | 31.9 | 45.93 | 17.87 | 27.2 – 36.6 |
| 2035 | 35.88 | 55.72 | 16.04 | 27.11 – 44.66 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.87 | 7.62 | -0.15 | 2.98 – 4.76 |
| 2029 | 6.94 | 13.44 | -0.03 | 5.16 – 8.71 |
| 2031 | 10 | 18.39 | 1.01 | 7.34 – 12.66 |
| 2036 | 17.67 | 29.53 | 4.95 | 12.21 – 23.12 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.72 | 22.54 | 17.28 | 19 – 20.44 |
| 2028 | 19.32 | 24.2 | 15.08 | 17.69 – 20.94 |
| 2030 | 18.91 | 25.22 | 13.44 | 16.5 – 21.32 |
| 2035 | 17.89 | 26.82 | 10.16 | 13.76 – 22.03 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 18.2m | 19m | 17.4m | 17.6m – 18.7m |
| 2029 | 18.1m | 19m | 17.3m | 16.8m – 19.5m |
| 2031 | 18.1m | 18.9m | 17.3m | 16m – 20.1m |
| 2036 | 18m | 18.8m | 17.2m | 14.2m – 21.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.45 | 11.51 | -6.09 | 0.17 – 2.73 |
| 2028 | 0.6 | 15 | -10 | -1.63 – 2.82 |
| 2030 | -0.26 | 15 | -10 | -3.15 – 2.64 |
| 2035 | -2.39 | 15 | -10 | -6.74 – 1.97 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.2bn | 10.3bn | 2.2bn | 5.5bn – 7bn |
| 2028 | 6.7bn | 13.7bn | 0 | 5.3bn – 8.1bn |
| 2030 | 7.1bn | 16.2bn | 0 | 5.2bn – 9.1bn |
| 2035 | 8.3bn | 21.1bn | 0 | 5bn – 11.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.64 | 4.79 | 0.48 | 2.26 – 3.01 |
| 2028 | 2.38 | 6.11 | 0 | 1.69 – 3.06 |
| 2030 | 2.25 | 7.06 | 0 | 1.33 – 3.16 |
| 2035 | 2.14 | 8.96 | 0 | 0.76 – 3.53 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.3bn | 15.1bn | 5.5bn | 9.4bn – 11.2bn |
| 2028 | 11.7bn | 19.9bn | 3.4bn | 9.9bn – 13.5bn |
| 2030 | 13.1bn | 23.7bn | 2.4bn | 10.4bn – 15.8bn |
| 2035 | 16.6bn | 31.7bn | 1.5bn | 11.6bn – 21.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.86 | 3.37 | 2.35 | 2.74 – 2.99 |
| 2029 | 2.39 | 3.27 | 1.5 | 2.14 – 2.64 |
| 2031 | 1.92 | 3.06 | 0.77 | 1.59 – 2.24 |
| 2036 | 0.73 | 2.35 | 0 | 0.32 – 1.14 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ECU · API docs
