Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
EDE: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 53/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.66 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.06, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment -0.02) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±0.0357 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
EDE: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.65 | 1.28 | -4.58 | -2.27 – -1.02 |
| 2028 | -2.35 | 2.73 | -7.42 | -3.5 – -1.2 |
| 2030 | -3.04 | 3.51 | -9.6 | -4.63 – -1.46 |
| 2035 | -4.79 | 4.48 | -14.06 | -7.45 – -2.13 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.1T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.8T | 7.6T | 6.1T | 6.6T – 7T |
| 2028 | 7.8T | 9.1T | 6.6T | 7.2T – 8.3T |
| 2030 | 8.7T | 10.4T | 7.3T | 7.7T – 9.7T |
| 2035 | 11.1T | 13.5T | 9.1T | 8.8T – 13.4T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.66 | 12 | -7.78 | -0.18 – 3.51 |
| 2028 | 0.93 | 12 | -10 | -2.27 – 4.12 |
| 2030 | 0.19 | 12 | -10 | -3.95 – 4.33 |
| 2035 | -1.66 | 12 | -10 | -7.67 – 4.35 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.1k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.1k | 21.3k | 17.2k | 18.5k – 19.7k |
| 2028 | 21.9k | 25.7k | 18.6k | 20.3k – 23.5k |
| 2030 | 24.7k | 29.6k | 20.5k | 21.9k – 27.5k |
| 2035 | 31.7k | 38.6k | 25.7k | 25.1k – 38.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.01 | 41.37 | 27.68 | 33.48 – 36.55 |
| 2028 | 35.84 | 46.86 | 23.13 | 32.43 – 39.26 |
| 2030 | 36.67 | 50.89 | 20.26 | 31.55 – 41.79 |
| 2035 | 38.74 | 58.85 | 15.53 | 29.45 – 48.03 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.12 | 29.27 | -5 | 8.12 – 16.12 |
| 2028 | 6.94 | 36.65 | -5 | 0.02 – 13.86 |
| 2030 | 1.76 | 40.12 | -5 | -5 – 10.4 |
| 2035 | -5 | 49.25 | -5 | -5 – 7.83 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed354.6m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 356.2m | 373m | 340.6m | 345.1m – 367.2m |
| 2028 | 354.8m | 371.5m | 339.2m | 328.5m – 381m |
| 2030 | 353.4m | 370.1m | 337.9m | 313.2m – 393.5m |
| 2035 | 349.8m | 366.4m | 334.5m | 277.3m – 422.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/EDE · API docs
