Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
EDE: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 49/100); the economy is in expansion; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.28 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.02, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment -0.06) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive) · a track record, not a guarantee
EDE: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.59 | 1.35 | -4.52 | -2.21 – -0.96 |
| 2029 | -2.36 | 2.72 | -7.44 | -3.51 – -1.21 |
| 2031 | -3.13 | 3.43 | -9.69 | -4.72 – -1.54 |
| 2036 | -5.06 | 4.22 | -14.33 | -7.76 – -2.36 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.8T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.2T | 7.9T | 6.6T | 7T – 7.4T |
| 2029 | 8.3T | 9.6T | 7.3T | 7.7T – 8.9T |
| 2031 | 9.4T | 11T | 8.1T | 8.4T – 10.5T |
| 2036 | 12.2T | 14.5T | 10.3T | 9.7T – 14.7T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.28 | 8.07 | -4.61 | 0.12 – 2.43 |
| 2029 | -0.3 | 11.47 | -10 | -2.31 – 1.71 |
| 2031 | -1.88 | 12 | -10 | -4.56 – 0.8 |
| 2036 | -5.83 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -1.31 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.1k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 20.4k | 22.4k | 18.6k | 19.7k – 21k |
| 2029 | 23.6k | 27.1k | 20.5k | 21.9k – 25.4k |
| 2031 | 26.8k | 31.4k | 22.9k | 23.8k – 29.9k |
| 2036 | 34.9k | 41.4k | 29.3k | 27.7k – 42.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 39.11 | 45.54 | 31.68 | 37.49 – 40.72 |
| 2029 | 40.52 | 51.67 | 27.65 | 36.86 – 44.18 |
| 2031 | 41.93 | 56.33 | 25.32 | 36.36 – 47.5 |
| 2036 | 45.46 | 65.82 | 21.97 | 35.06 – 55.87 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.67 | 26.97 | -5 | 5.67 – 13.66 |
| 2029 | 5.47 | 35.45 | -5 | -1.44 – 12.37 |
| 2031 | 1.27 | 39.97 | -5 | -5 – 9.95 |
| 2036 | -5 | 49.74 | -5 | -5 – 7.93 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed354.3m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 354.8m | 371.6m | 339.3m | 343.8m – 365.8m |
| 2029 | 353.4m | 370.1m | 337.9m | 327.3m – 379.6m |
| 2031 | 352m | 368.6m | 336.6m | 312m – 392m |
| 2036 | 348.5m | 364.9m | 333.2m | 276.2m – 420.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/EDE · API docs
