Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
EEQ: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 57/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.41 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.14, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment -0.04) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-1% skill vs naive; realized ±0.0147 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
EEQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.47 | 0.96 | -3.9 | -1.99 – -0.95 |
| 2028 | -2.21 | 1.99 | -6.42 | -3.17 – -1.25 |
| 2030 | -2.95 | 2.48 | -8.38 | -4.3 – -1.61 |
| 2035 | -4.8 | 2.87 | -12.48 | -7.14 – -2.47 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.5T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.2T | 6.8T | 5.6T | 6T – 6.3T |
| 2028 | 6.9T | 8.1T | 5.9T | 6.4T – 7.4T |
| 2030 | 7.6T | 9.1T | 6.3T | 6.8T – 8.5T |
| 2035 | 9.5T | 11.6T | 7.7T | 7.5T – 11.5T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.41 | 12 | -8.01 | -0.42 – 3.25 |
| 2028 | 1.02 | 12 | -10 | -2.17 – 4.21 |
| 2030 | 0.63 | 12 | -10 | -3.5 – 4.76 |
| 2035 | -0.36 | 12 | -10 | -6.25 – 5.53 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.4k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.3k | 22.6k | 18.4k | 19.7k – 21k |
| 2028 | 23k | 26.9k | 19.6k | 21.3k – 24.7k |
| 2030 | 25.6k | 30.6k | 21.2k | 22.7k – 28.5k |
| 2035 | 32.1k | 39.3k | 25.9k | 25.4k – 38.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.42 | 47.16 | 32.64 | 38.73 – 42.1 |
| 2028 | 41.66 | 53.34 | 28.18 | 37.86 – 45.45 |
| 2030 | 42.89 | 57.97 | 25.49 | 37.14 – 48.65 |
| 2035 | 45.99 | 67.31 | 21.38 | 35.35 – 56.63 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.55 | 17.29 | -2.89 | 5.27 – 9.83 |
| 2028 | 8.53 | 25.4 | -5 | 4.38 – 12.68 |
| 2030 | 9.51 | 31.29 | -5 | 3.92 – 15.1 |
| 2035 | 11.96 | 42.77 | -5 | 3.21 – 20.7 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed301.5m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 303.6m | 317.9m | 290.3m | 294.2m – 313m |
| 2028 | 301.6m | 315.9m | 288.4m | 279.3m – 323.9m |
| 2030 | 299.7m | 313.8m | 286.5m | 265.7m – 333.7m |
| 2035 | 294.8m | 308.8m | 281.9m | 233.7m – 356m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/EEQ · API docs
