Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
EEQ: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 39/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.97 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.22, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.10) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-1% skill vs naive) · a track record, not a guarantee
EEQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.18 | 1.13 | -3.5 | -1.68 – -0.69 |
| 2029 | -1.95 | 2.06 | -5.96 | -2.87 – -1.04 |
| 2031 | -2.72 | 2.45 | -7.9 | -4 – -1.45 |
| 2036 | -4.65 | 2.68 | -11.97 | -6.88 – -2.41 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.3T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.7T | 7.3T | 6.1T | 6.4T – 6.9T |
| 2029 | 7.6T | 8.7T | 6.6T | 7T – 8.2T |
| 2031 | 8.6T | 10T | 7.3T | 7.6T – 9.5T |
| 2036 | 10.9T | 13T | 9.2T | 8.7T – 13.2T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.97 | 7.95 | -5.07 | -0.21 – 2.15 |
| 2029 | -0.58 | 11.5 | -10 | -2.64 – 1.48 |
| 2031 | -2.13 | 12 | -10 | -4.9 – 0.64 |
| 2036 | -6.01 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -1.38 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.8k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 22.2k | 24.3k | 20.3k | 21.5k – 22.8k |
| 2029 | 25.5k | 29.2k | 22.2k | 23.6k – 27.4k |
| 2031 | 28.8k | 33.7k | 24.6k | 25.6k – 32.1k |
| 2036 | 37.2k | 44k | 31.2k | 29.5k – 44.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 44.7 | 51.31 | 37.07 | 42.97 – 46.43 |
| 2029 | 46.91 | 58.36 | 33.69 | 42.89 – 50.92 |
| 2031 | 49.11 | 63.9 | 32.05 | 42.91 – 55.32 |
| 2036 | 54.62 | 75.53 | 30.5 | 42.67 – 66.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.36 | 14 | -5 | 2.15 – 6.57 |
| 2029 | 1.7 | 18.4 | -5 | -2.08 – 5.48 |
| 2031 | -0.96 | 20.6 | -5 | -5 – 3.9 |
| 2036 | -5 | 25.49 | -5 | -5 – 2.56 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed301.2m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 301.8m | 316m | 288.5m | 292.4m – 311.1m |
| 2029 | 299.8m | 314m | 286.6m | 277.6m – 322m |
| 2031 | 297.8m | 311.9m | 284.8m | 264m – 331.6m |
| 2036 | 292.9m | 306.8m | 280.1m | 232.2m – 353.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/EEQ · API docs
