Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Egypt: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 57/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.72 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.14, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment -0.02) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-10% skill vs naive; realized ±3.503 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Egypt: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-4.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -4.35 | -0.46 | -8.24 | -5.22 – -3.49 |
| 2029 | -4.66 | 2.08 | -11.4 | -6.26 – -3.06 |
| 2031 | -4.96 | 3.74 | -13.66 | -7.13 – -2.79 |
| 2036 | -5.72 | 6.58 | -18.03 | -9.15 – -2.3 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.25 | 27.27 | 14.16 | 18.92 – 21.58 |
| 2028 | 21.1 | 33.27 | 10.56 | 18.35 – 23.85 |
| 2030 | 21.96 | 37.67 | 8.35 | 17.96 – 25.96 |
| 2035 | 24.1 | 46.31 | 4.85 | 17.07 – 31.13 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed365.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 434.7bn | 541.7bn | 342.1bn | 415.1bn – 454.4bn |
| 2029 | 448.8bn | 634bn | 288.2bn | 405.2bn – 492.4bn |
| 2031 | 462.8bn | 701.9bn | 255.5bn | 397.3bn – 528.3bn |
| 2036 | 497.8bn | 836bn | 204.7bn | 377.9bn – 617.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.72 | 9.37 | 0.68 | 3.86 – 5.57 |
| 2029 | 5.76 | 12 | -1.23 | 4.14 – 7.38 |
| 2031 | 6.8 | 12 | -2.22 | 4.52 – 9.08 |
| 2036 | 9.41 | 12 | -3.35 | 5.45 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4k | 5k | 3k | 3.8k – 4.1k |
| 2029 | 4.1k | 5.9k | 2.5k | 3.7k – 4.5k |
| 2031 | 4.3k | 6.6k | 2.2k | 3.6k – 4.9k |
| 2036 | 4.6k | 8k | 1.7k | 3.5k – 5.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed87(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 86.86 | 97.29 | 74.83 | 83.87 – 89.85 |
| 2029 | 86.58 | 104.64 | 65.74 | 79.64 – 93.51 |
| 2031 | 86.3 | 109.61 | 59.4 | 75.81 – 96.79 |
| 2036 | 85.59 | 118.56 | 47.55 | 66.83 – 104.36 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.83 | 39.7 | 23.96 | 30.12 – 33.54 |
| 2028 | 32.46 | 46.09 | 18.83 | 28.82 – 36.1 |
| 2030 | 33.09 | 50.68 | 15.5 | 27.75 – 38.43 |
| 2035 | 34.67 | 59.55 | 9.79 | 25.32 – 44.03 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 14.1 | 38.05 | -5 | 8.56 – 19.63 |
| 2029 | 12.87 | 50 | -5 | 3.06 – 22.69 |
| 2031 | 11.65 | 50 | -5 | -1.15 – 24.46 |
| 2036 | 8.59 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 26.76 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.29 | 13.91 | 7.15 | 9.61 – 10.97 |
| 2028 | 6.9 | 13.17 | 1.46 | 5.67 – 8.13 |
| 2030 | 3.51 | 11.61 | 0 | 2.07 – 4.95 |
| 2035 | 0 | 11.45 | 0 | 0 – 1.8 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed118.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 108.5m | 114.6m | 102.9m | 105.2m – 111.9m |
| 2029 | 99.4m | 109.8m | 89.7m | 92m – 106.8m |
| 2031 | 90.3m | 103.7m | 77.7m | 80m – 100.5m |
| 2036 | 67.4m | 86.5m | 49.7m | 53.4m – 81.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.78 | 11.9 | -5.8 | 0.49 – 3.08 |
| 2028 | 1.19 | 15 | -10 | -1.06 – 3.44 |
| 2030 | 0.6 | 15 | -10 | -2.31 – 3.51 |
| 2035 | -0.88 | 15 | -10 | -5.04 – 3.28 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.9bn | 43.6bn | 20.2bn | 29.6bn – 34.2bn |
| 2028 | 33.9bn | 54.2bn | 13.7bn | 29.2bn – 38.7bn |
| 2030 | 36bn | 62.2bn | 9.8bn | 29.1bn – 42.9bn |
| 2035 | 41.2bn | 78.2bn | 4.2bn | 28.9bn – 53.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.47 | 6.17 | 2.78 | 4.14 – 4.8 |
| 2028 | 4.61 | 7.54 | 1.67 | 3.94 – 5.28 |
| 2030 | 4.67 | 8.46 | 0.88 | 3.72 – 5.63 |
| 2035 | 4.72 | 10.08 | 0 | 3.15 – 6.3 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed48.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.2bn | 63.9bn | 40.5bn | 49.6bn – 54.8bn |
| 2028 | 59.9bn | 80.1bn | 39.7bn | 53.9bn – 65.9bn |
| 2030 | 67.6bn | 93.7bn | 41.5bn | 58.2bn – 77bn |
| 2035 | 86.8bn | 123.7bn | 49.9bn | 67.3bn – 106.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.42 | 8.39 | 6.44 | 7.15 – 7.68 |
| 2029 | 7.45 | 9.13 | 5.76 | 6.83 – 8.06 |
| 2031 | 7.48 | 9.66 | 5.3 | 6.55 – 8.41 |
| 2036 | 7.56 | 10.64 | 4.48 | 5.88 – 9.24 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/EGY · API docs
