Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Egypt: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 45/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.55 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.10, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.00) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±0.5487 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Egypt: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-4.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.41 | -0.46 | -8.35 | -5.28 – -3.53 |
| 2028 | -4.82 | 2.02 | -11.65 | -6.44 – -3.19 |
| 2030 | -5.23 | 3.59 | -14.05 | -7.45 – -3.01 |
| 2035 | -6.26 | 6.22 | -18.74 | -9.81 – -2.71 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.25 | 27.27 | 14.16 | 18.92 – 21.58 |
| 2028 | 21.1 | 33.27 | 10.56 | 18.35 – 23.85 |
| 2030 | 21.96 | 37.67 | 8.35 | 17.96 – 25.96 |
| 2035 | 24.1 | 46.31 | 4.85 | 17.07 – 31.13 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed365.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 351bn | 455.7bn | 260.2bn | 332.9bn – 369.1bn |
| 2028 | 321.1bn | 502.5bn | 163.9bn | 284.1bn – 358.1bn |
| 2030 | 291.2bn | 525.3bn | 88.2bn | 240bn – 342.3bn |
| 2035 | 216.3bn | 547.5bn | 0 | 142.3bn – 290.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.55 | 9.21 | 0.51 | 3.7 – 5.4 |
| 2028 | 4.91 | 12 | -2.08 | 3.33 – 6.5 |
| 2030 | 5.28 | 12 | -3.75 | 3.12 – 7.44 |
| 2035 | 6.19 | 12 | -6.58 | 2.74 – 9.63 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.9k | 3.9k | 2.1k | 2.8k – 3.1k |
| 2028 | 2.6k | 4.2k | 1.2k | 2.3k – 2.9k |
| 2030 | 2.2k | 4.3k | 393.79 | 1.8k – 2.7k |
| 2035 | 1.4k | 4.3k | 0 | 781.2 – 1.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed84(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 86.66 | 97.92 | 73.68 | 83.54 – 89.78 |
| 2028 | 86.39 | 105.88 | 63.9 | 79.24 – 93.53 |
| 2030 | 86.12 | 111.28 | 57.08 | 75.35 – 96.88 |
| 2035 | 85.43 | 121.02 | 44.36 | 66.29 – 104.57 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.83 | 39.7 | 23.96 | 30.12 – 33.54 |
| 2028 | 32.46 | 46.09 | 18.83 | 28.82 – 36.1 |
| 2030 | 33.09 | 50.68 | 15.5 | 27.75 – 38.43 |
| 2035 | 34.67 | 59.55 | 9.79 | 25.32 – 44.03 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.29 | 32.17 | -5 | 2.86 – 13.72 |
| 2028 | -5 | 36.36 | -5 | -5 – 4.41 |
| 2030 | -5 | 48.39 | -5 | -5 – 7.24 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 12.54 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.29 | 13.91 | 7.15 | 9.61 – 10.97 |
| 2028 | 6.9 | 13.17 | 1.46 | 5.67 – 8.13 |
| 2030 | 3.51 | 11.61 | 0 | 2.07 – 4.95 |
| 2035 | 0 | 11.45 | 0 | 0 – 1.8 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed118.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 117.8m | 123.4m | 112.7m | 114.2m – 121.5m |
| 2028 | 119.9m | 125.5m | 114.6m | 111m – 128.7m |
| 2030 | 121.9m | 127.6m | 116.5m | 108m – 135.7m |
| 2035 | 126.9m | 132.9m | 121.3m | 100.6m – 153.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.78 | 11.9 | -5.8 | 0.49 – 3.08 |
| 2028 | 1.19 | 15 | -10 | -1.06 – 3.44 |
| 2030 | 0.6 | 15 | -10 | -2.31 – 3.51 |
| 2035 | -0.88 | 15 | -10 | -5.04 – 3.28 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.9bn | 43.6bn | 20.2bn | 29.6bn – 34.2bn |
| 2028 | 33.9bn | 54.2bn | 13.7bn | 29.2bn – 38.7bn |
| 2030 | 36bn | 62.2bn | 9.8bn | 29.1bn – 42.9bn |
| 2035 | 41.2bn | 78.2bn | 4.2bn | 28.9bn – 53.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.47 | 6.17 | 2.78 | 4.14 – 4.8 |
| 2028 | 4.61 | 7.54 | 1.67 | 3.94 – 5.28 |
| 2030 | 4.67 | 8.46 | 0.88 | 3.72 – 5.63 |
| 2035 | 4.72 | 10.08 | 0 | 3.15 – 6.3 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed48.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.2bn | 63.9bn | 40.5bn | 49.6bn – 54.8bn |
| 2028 | 59.9bn | 80.1bn | 39.7bn | 53.9bn – 65.9bn |
| 2030 | 67.6bn | 93.7bn | 41.5bn | 58.2bn – 77bn |
| 2035 | 86.8bn | 123.7bn | 49.9bn | 67.3bn – 106.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.56 | 7.37 | 5.76 | 6.33 – 6.79 |
| 2028 | 6.13 | 7.53 | 4.73 | 5.62 – 6.64 |
| 2030 | 5.69 | 7.5 | 3.89 | 4.96 – 6.42 |
| 2035 | 4.6 | 7.15 | 2.05 | 3.47 – 5.73 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/EGY · API docs
