Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Euro area: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 39/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 20 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.88 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.22, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.18) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-07-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-03
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-8% skill vs naive; realized ±1.1919 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Euro area: forward projections across 16 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed48.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49.05 | 55.55 | 43.42 | 47.34 – 50.77 |
| 2028 | 50.02 | 61.28 | 40.26 | 46.01 – 54.03 |
| 2030 | 50.98 | 65.52 | 38.38 | 44.83 – 57.14 |
| 2035 | 53.39 | 73.95 | 35.57 | 41.91 – 64.87 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.7T | 20.5T | 17.2T | 18.2T – 19.3T |
| 2028 | 20.5T | 23.6T | 17.8T | 19T – 22T |
| 2030 | 22.3T | 26.3T | 18.9T | 19.8T – 24.9T |
| 2035 | 26.8T | 32.5T | 21.9T | 21.3T – 32.4T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.88 | 12 | -8.52 | -0.15 – 3.91 |
| 2028 | 2.85 | 12 | -10 | -0.75 – 6.45 |
| 2030 | 3.82 | 12 | -10 | -0.95 – 8.6 |
| 2035 | 6.25 | 12 | -10 | -1.07 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed50.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.1k | 57.1k | 47.7k | 50.5k – 53.7k |
| 2028 | 56.8k | 65.5k | 49.2k | 52.6k – 61k |
| 2030 | 61.5k | 72.7k | 51.7k | 54.5k – 68.4k |
| 2035 | 73.2k | 89.1k | 59.4k | 58k – 88.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.37(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.87 | 4.79 | 0.81 | 2.35 – 3.39 |
| 2029 | 2.28 | 5.61 | 0 | 1.35 – 3.21 |
| 2031 | 1.99 | 6.29 | 0 | 0.77 – 3.2 |
| 2036 | 1.75 | 7.83 | 0 | 0 – 3.53 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed44.69(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45.15 | 52.84 | 37.46 | 43.25 – 47.05 |
| 2028 | 46.07 | 59.38 | 32.76 | 41.82 – 50.32 |
| 2030 | 46.99 | 64.18 | 29.8 | 40.6 – 53.38 |
| 2035 | 49.29 | 73.6 | 24.98 | 37.68 – 60.9 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.47(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.9 | 9.99 | -4.7 | 1.28 – 4.52 |
| 2028 | 3.19 | 15.47 | -5 | 0.32 – 6.07 |
| 2030 | 3.49 | 19.34 | -5 | -0.3 – 7.28 |
| 2035 | 4.23 | 26.64 | -5 | -1.42 – 9.87 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.87 | 9.25 | -3.97 | 1.41 – 4.33 |
| 2029 | 2.84 | 13.89 | -5 | 0.25 – 5.42 |
| 2031 | 2.83 | 17.1 | -5 | -0.56 – 6.22 |
| 2036 | 2.82 | 23.01 | -5 | -2.11 – 7.75 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.18(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.03 | 22.26 | 19.95 | 20.37 – 21.68 |
| 2028 | 20.68 | 22.82 | 18.82 | 19.15 – 22.21 |
| 2030 | 20.33 | 23.09 | 17.93 | 18.02 – 22.63 |
| 2035 | 19.45 | 23.36 | 16.06 | 15.42 – 23.49 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.25(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.9 | 4.2 | -0.56 | 1.31 – 2.5 |
| 2029 | 1.49 | 5.47 | -2 | 0.44 – 2.54 |
| 2031 | 1.29 | 6.43 | -2 | -0.08 – 2.66 |
| 2036 | 1.13 | 8.4 | -2 | -0.84 – 3.1 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed358.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 358.3m | 375.2m | 342.6m | 347.2m – 369.4m |
| 2028 | 359.5m | 376.4m | 343.7m | 332.9m – 386.1m |
| 2030 | 360.6m | 377.7m | 344.8m | 319.7m – 401.6m |
| 2035 | 363.5m | 380.7m | 347.6m | 288.1m – 439m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.52 | 12.61 | -6.81 | 0.1 – 2.93 |
| 2028 | 1.9 | 15 | -10 | -0.59 – 4.4 |
| 2030 | 2.29 | 15 | -10 | -0.99 – 5.58 |
| 2035 | 3.26 | 15 | -10 | -1.65 – 8.17 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed594.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 607.7bn | 706.3bn | 509.1bn | 582.9bn – 632.5bn |
| 2028 | 645.5bn | 816.3bn | 474.7bn | 588.4bn – 702.7bn |
| 2030 | 683.4bn | 903.9bn | 462.9bn | 595bn – 771.8bn |
| 2035 | 778bn | 1.1T | 466.2bn | 605.8bn – 950.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.34 | 4.33 | 2.34 | 3.13 – 3.54 |
| 2028 | 2.93 | 4.66 | 1.2 | 2.53 – 3.34 |
| 2030 | 2.74 | 4.97 | 0.5 | 2.18 – 3.3 |
| 2035 | 2.58 | 5.73 | 0 | 1.68 – 3.47 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.3T | 2.7T | 1.9T | 2.2T – 2.4T |
| 2028 | 2.8T | 3.4T | 2.1T | 2.5T – 3T |
| 2030 | 3.2T | 4.1T | 2.3T | 2.8T – 3.6T |
| 2035 | 4.4T | 5.7T | 3.2T | 3.5T – 5.3T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.95 | 6.61 | 5.29 | 5.75 – 6.14 |
| 2028 | 5.28 | 6.42 | 4.13 | 4.85 – 5.71 |
| 2030 | 4.61 | 6.08 | 3.13 | 4.01 – 5.2 |
| 2035 | 2.93 | 5.01 | 0.84 | 2.14 – 3.72 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/EMU · API docs
