Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Eritrea: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 42/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 18 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 7.53 for 2020.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.16, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2020: balanced (projected sentiment +0.00) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2019-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2004-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2011-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2011-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2011-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2011-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2019-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2011-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2019-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2011-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2019-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2000-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2019-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+10% skill vs naive; realized ±17.764 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Eritrea: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2001, 2003, 2005, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2024, 2026, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed13(2019)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 13.98 | 30 | -5.12 | 9.86 – 18.1 |
| 2022 | 15.95 | 30 | -17.14 | 8.43 – 23.46 |
| 2024 | 17.91 | 30 | -24.8 | 7.76 – 28.06 |
| 2029 | 22.82 | 30 | -30 | 6.84 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.15(2011)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 19.1 | 27.94 | 11.44 | 17.53 – 20.67 |
| 2014 | 20.99 | 36.29 | 7.72 | 17.79 – 24.18 |
| 2016 | 22.87 | 42.64 | 5.75 | 18.22 – 27.53 |
| 2021 | 27.59 | 55.54 | 3.37 | 19.18 – 36 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1bn(2011)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1.9bn | 2.7bn | 1.3bn | 1.8bn – 2.1bn |
| 2022 | 1.8bn | 3.2bn | 649.6m | 1.6bn – 2.1bn |
| 2024 | 1.7bn | 3.5bn | 200.4m | 1.4bn – 2.1bn |
| 2029 | 1.5bn | 4bn | 0 | 934.2m – 2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.68(2011)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 7.53 | 12 | -10 | -2.74 – 12 |
| 2022 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -6.16 – 12 |
| 2024 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2029 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed688.68(2011)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 548.61 | 786.36 | 342.56 | 511.53 – 585.69 |
| 2022 | 504.39 | 916.18 | 147.5 | 431.15 – 577.62 |
| 2024 | 460.16 | 991.78 | 0 | 360.06 – 560.26 |
| 2029 | 349.59 | 1.1k | 0 | 204.15 – 495.03 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed260.4(2019)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 272 | 300 | 195.27 | 257.41 – 286.58 |
| 2022 | 295.19 | 300 | 162.29 | 263.3 – 300 |
| 2024 | 300 | 300 | 128.44 | 253.13 – 300 |
| 2029 | 300 | 300 | 57.38 | 219.65 – 300 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.24(2011)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 24.71 | 38.23 | 11.19 | 22.24 – 27.17 |
| 2014 | 15.65 | 39.06 | 0 | 11.31 – 19.98 |
| 2016 | 6.59 | 36.81 | 0 | 1.43 – 11.74 |
| 2021 | 0 | 42.75 | 0 | 0 – 6.7 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3(2019)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 8.11 | 47.31 | -5 | -0.7 – 16.93 |
| 2022 | 30.09 | 50 | -5 | 13.6 – 46.59 |
| 2024 | 50 | 50 | -5 | 26.57 – 50 |
| 2029 | 50 | 50 | -5 | 14.53 – 50 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.63(2011)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 12.32 | 18.41 | 7.05 | 11.26 – 13.39 |
| 2014 | 11.5 | 22.03 | 2.37 | 9.44 – 13.55 |
| 2016 | 10.67 | 24.27 | 0 | 7.87 – 13.47 |
| 2021 | 8.61 | 27.84 | 0 | 4.48 – 12.73 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.6m | 3.8m | 3.4m | 3.5m – 3.7m |
| 2028 | 3.7m | 3.8m | 3.5m | 3.4m – 3.9m |
| 2030 | 3.7m | 3.9m | 3.6m | 3.3m – 4.2m |
| 2035 | 3.9m | 4.1m | 3.8m | 3.1m – 4.8m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed191.7m(2019)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 201.3m | 225.9m | 176.8m | 194.3m – 208.3m |
| 2022 | 225.4m | 268m | 182.9m | 208.1m – 242.8m |
| 2024 | 249.6m | 304.5m | 194.7m | 221.2m – 278m |
| 2029 | 309.9m | 387.6m | 232.3m | 245.6m – 374.2m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.85(2000)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 1.14 | 5.26 | 0 | 0.49 – 1.79 |
| 2003 | 1.48 | 8.62 | 0 | 0.32 – 2.65 |
| 2005 | 1.65 | 10.86 | 0 | 0.11 – 3.19 |
| 2010 | 1.79 | 14.82 | 0 | 0 – 4.07 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed191.7m(2019)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 201.3m | 225.9m | 176.8m | 194.3m – 208.3m |
| 2022 | 225.4m | 268m | 182.9m | 208.1m – 242.8m |
| 2024 | 249.6m | 304.5m | 194.7m | 221.2m – 278m |
| 2029 | 309.9m | 387.6m | 232.3m | 245.6m – 374.2m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.87 | 6.27 | 5.47 | 5.69 – 6.05 |
| 2028 | 5.66 | 6.35 | 4.97 | 5.24 – 6.08 |
| 2030 | 5.44 | 6.34 | 4.55 | 4.83 – 6.06 |
| 2035 | 4.91 | 6.17 | 3.65 | 3.89 – 5.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ERI · API docs
