Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Spain: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 46/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 23 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.48 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.08, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.12) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±1.3796 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Spain: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed2.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.11 | 5.12 | 1.1 | 2.65 – 3.57 |
| 2028 | 3.54 | 7.02 | 0.05 | 2.65 – 4.42 |
| 2030 | 3.96 | 8.46 | -0.54 | 2.72 – 5.19 |
| 2035 | 5.02 | 11.38 | -1.34 | 2.92 – 7.12 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37.26 | 43.76 | 31.62 | 35.73 – 38.78 |
| 2028 | 38.5 | 49.76 | 28.74 | 35.04 – 41.96 |
| 2030 | 39.74 | 54.28 | 27.14 | 34.49 – 45 |
| 2035 | 42.85 | 63.41 | 25.03 | 33.05 – 52.64 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.9T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2T | 2.2T | 1.8T | 1.9T – 2.1T |
| 2028 | 2.2T | 2.6T | 1.9T | 2.1T – 2.4T |
| 2030 | 2.5T | 3T | 2T | 2.2T – 2.7T |
| 2035 | 3.1T | 3.8T | 2.4T | 2.4T – 3.7T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.48 | 12 | -10 | 0.76 – 6.2 |
| 2028 | 4.9 | 12 | -10 | 0.06 – 9.75 |
| 2030 | 6.33 | 12 | -10 | -0.13 – 12 |
| 2035 | 9.89 | 12 | -10 | -0.11 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.3k | 45k | 36.2k | 39k – 41.5k |
| 2028 | 44.4k | 52.6k | 37.3k | 41.1k – 47.7k |
| 2030 | 48.5k | 59.1k | 39.4k | 43k – 54k |
| 2035 | 58.8k | 73.7k | 45.9k | 46.6k – 71k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.63(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.13 | 5.07 | 1.05 | 2.6 – 3.66 |
| 2029 | 2.54 | 5.91 | 0 | 1.59 – 3.49 |
| 2031 | 2.25 | 6.59 | 0 | 1 – 3.5 |
| 2036 | 2.02 | 8.16 | 0 | 0.19 – 3.86 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed98.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 100.69 | 115.02 | 84.15 | 96.87 – 104.5 |
| 2028 | 101.26 | 126.08 | 72.62 | 92.58 – 109.94 |
| 2030 | 101.83 | 133.87 | 64.86 | 88.76 – 114.91 |
| 2035 | 103.27 | 148.58 | 50.98 | 79.77 – 126.76 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.19 | 39.93 | 26.46 | 31.63 – 34.75 |
| 2028 | 33.95 | 45.62 | 22.28 | 30.54 – 37.37 |
| 2030 | 34.71 | 49.77 | 19.65 | 29.63 – 39.79 |
| 2035 | 36.6 | 57.91 | 15.3 | 27.49 – 45.72 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.83 | 9.99 | -4.83 | 1.2 – 4.46 |
| 2028 | 2.77 | 15.16 | -5 | -0.11 – 5.65 |
| 2030 | 2.7 | 18.7 | -5 | -1.06 – 6.46 |
| 2035 | 2.53 | 25.16 | -5 | -2.89 – 7.96 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.6(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.9 | 9.21 | -1.79 | 2.66 – 5.14 |
| 2029 | 3.22 | 12.42 | -5 | 1.03 – 5.41 |
| 2031 | 2.98 | 14.85 | -5 | 0.11 – 5.85 |
| 2036 | 2.85 | 19.64 | -5 | -1.33 – 7.03 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.63 | 21.72 | 19.69 | 19.99 – 21.27 |
| 2028 | 20.72 | 21.92 | 19.68 | 19.19 – 22.25 |
| 2030 | 20.81 | 22.36 | 19.47 | 18.45 – 23.17 |
| 2035 | 21.03 | 23.22 | 19.13 | 16.67 – 25.39 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49.2m | 51.6m | 47.1m | 47.7m – 50.8m |
| 2028 | 49.8m | 52.1m | 47.6m | 46.1m – 53.5m |
| 2030 | 50.3m | 52.7m | 48.1m | 44.6m – 56.1m |
| 2035 | 51.7m | 54.2m | 49.5m | 41m – 62.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.04 | 14.4 | -8.98 | -0.65 – 2.73 |
| 2028 | 1.25 | 15 | -10 | -1.71 – 4.2 |
| 2030 | 1.45 | 15 | -10 | -2.4 – 5.3 |
| 2035 | 1.96 | 15 | -10 | -3.63 – 7.56 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed89.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 92.3bn | 99.9bn | 84.6bn | 89.4bn – 95.1bn |
| 2028 | 100.4bn | 113.7bn | 87.2bn | 93bn – 107.9bn |
| 2030 | 108.6bn | 125.7bn | 91.5bn | 96.3bn – 120.9bn |
| 2035 | 129.1bn | 153.2bn | 104.9bn | 102.3bn – 155.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.97 | 2.43 | 1.5 | 1.87 – 2.07 |
| 2028 | 1.91 | 2.71 | 1.1 | 1.69 – 2.12 |
| 2030 | 1.88 | 2.92 | 0.84 | 1.57 – 2.19 |
| 2035 | 1.86 | 3.33 | 0.39 | 1.34 – 2.38 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed128.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 136.3bn | 148.2bn | 124.3bn | 132bn – 140.5bn |
| 2028 | 155.7bn | 176.4bn | 135.1bn | 144.2bn – 167.2bn |
| 2030 | 175.2bn | 201.8bn | 148.6bn | 155.3bn – 195.1bn |
| 2035 | 223.9bn | 261.6bn | 186.2bn | 177.5bn – 270.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.31 | 10.19 | 8.44 | 9.03 – 9.6 |
| 2028 | 7.19 | 8.7 | 5.68 | 6.61 – 7.77 |
| 2030 | 5.07 | 7.01 | 3.12 | 4.36 – 5.77 |
| 2035 | 0 | 2.76 | 0 | 0 – 0.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ESP · API docs
