Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Spain: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 52/100); the economy is in slowdown; 22 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.43 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.04, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment -0.02) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-07-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±6.4987 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Spain: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed2.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.45 | 4.54 | 0.36 | 1.98 – 2.91 |
| 2029 | 2.94 | 6.56 | -0.68 | 2.06 – 3.82 |
| 2031 | 3.43 | 8.11 | -1.24 | 2.2 – 4.66 |
| 2036 | 4.66 | 11.28 | -1.95 | 2.57 – 6.76 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37.26 | 43.76 | 31.62 | 35.73 – 38.78 |
| 2028 | 38.5 | 49.76 | 28.74 | 35.04 – 41.96 |
| 2030 | 39.74 | 54.28 | 27.14 | 34.49 – 45 |
| 2035 | 42.85 | 63.41 | 25.03 | 33.05 – 52.64 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.9T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.2T | 2.4T | 2T | 2.1T – 2.3T |
| 2029 | 2.5T | 2.9T | 2.1T | 2.3T – 2.7T |
| 2031 | 2.8T | 3.3T | 2.3T | 2.4T – 3.1T |
| 2036 | 3.4T | 4.2T | 2.8T | 2.7T – 4.2T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.43 | 4.83 | -1.51 | 0.84 – 2.02 |
| 2029 | -0.11 | 5.77 | -5.21 | -1.14 – 0.92 |
| 2031 | -1.66 | 5.94 | -8.25 | -3.06 – -0.26 |
| 2036 | -5.53 | 5.22 | -10 | -8.2 – -2.85 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 43.4k | 48k | 39.5k | 42.1k – 44.8k |
| 2029 | 48.2k | 56k | 41.4k | 44.6k – 51.7k |
| 2031 | 52.9k | 63.1k | 44.1k | 46.9k – 58.9k |
| 2036 | 64.8k | 79.1k | 52.4k | 51.4k – 78.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.42(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.98 | 4.92 | 0.9 | 2.45 – 3.5 |
| 2029 | 2.46 | 5.82 | 0 | 1.51 – 3.4 |
| 2031 | 2.2 | 6.54 | 0 | 0.95 – 3.44 |
| 2036 | 1.99 | 8.13 | 0 | 0.16 – 3.83 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed98.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 97.9 | 112.27 | 81.31 | 94.12 – 101.68 |
| 2029 | 97.29 | 122.19 | 68.57 | 88.79 – 105.79 |
| 2031 | 96.69 | 128.83 | 59.61 | 84.01 – 109.37 |
| 2036 | 95.18 | 140.63 | 42.73 | 72.96 – 117.4 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.19 | 39.93 | 26.46 | 31.63 – 34.75 |
| 2028 | 33.95 | 45.62 | 22.28 | 30.54 – 37.37 |
| 2030 | 34.71 | 49.77 | 19.65 | 29.63 – 39.79 |
| 2035 | 36.6 | 57.91 | 15.3 | 27.49 – 45.72 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.17 | 9.74 | -3.87 | 1.66 – 4.68 |
| 2029 | 3.59 | 14.97 | -5 | 0.9 – 6.29 |
| 2031 | 4.01 | 18.7 | -5 | 0.43 – 7.59 |
| 2036 | 5.06 | 25.84 | -5 | -0.35 – 10.48 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.8(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.38 | 8.63 | -2.24 | 2.17 – 4.6 |
| 2029 | 2.98 | 12.08 | -5 | 0.83 – 5.14 |
| 2031 | 2.84 | 14.58 | -5 | 0.01 – 5.67 |
| 2036 | 2.77 | 19.37 | -5 | -1.36 – 6.89 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.63 | 21.72 | 19.69 | 19.99 – 21.27 |
| 2028 | 20.72 | 21.92 | 19.68 | 19.19 – 22.25 |
| 2030 | 20.81 | 22.36 | 19.47 | 18.45 – 23.17 |
| 2035 | 21.03 | 23.22 | 19.13 | 16.67 – 25.39 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 50.2m | 52.6m | 48m | 48.7m – 51.8m |
| 2029 | 51.3m | 53.7m | 49m | 47.5m – 55.1m |
| 2031 | 52.3m | 54.8m | 50m | 46.4m – 58.3m |
| 2036 | 55m | 57.6m | 52.6m | 43.6m – 66.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.04 | 14.4 | -8.98 | -0.65 – 2.73 |
| 2028 | 1.25 | 15 | -10 | -1.71 – 4.2 |
| 2030 | 1.45 | 15 | -10 | -2.4 – 5.3 |
| 2035 | 1.96 | 15 | -10 | -3.63 – 7.56 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed89.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 92.3bn | 99.9bn | 84.6bn | 89.4bn – 95.1bn |
| 2028 | 100.4bn | 113.7bn | 87.2bn | 93bn – 107.9bn |
| 2030 | 108.6bn | 125.7bn | 91.5bn | 96.3bn – 120.9bn |
| 2035 | 129.1bn | 153.2bn | 104.9bn | 102.3bn – 155.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.97 | 2.43 | 1.5 | 1.87 – 2.07 |
| 2028 | 1.91 | 2.71 | 1.1 | 1.69 – 2.12 |
| 2030 | 1.88 | 2.92 | 0.84 | 1.57 – 2.19 |
| 2035 | 1.86 | 3.33 | 0.39 | 1.34 – 2.38 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed128.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 136.3bn | 148.2bn | 124.3bn | 132bn – 140.5bn |
| 2028 | 155.7bn | 176.4bn | 135.1bn | 144.2bn – 167.2bn |
| 2030 | 175.2bn | 201.8bn | 148.6bn | 155.3bn – 195.1bn |
| 2035 | 223.9bn | 261.6bn | 186.2bn | 177.5bn – 270.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.82 | 9.71 | 7.93 | 8.54 – 9.1 |
| 2029 | 6.86 | 8.39 | 5.32 | 6.29 – 7.42 |
| 2031 | 4.9 | 6.88 | 2.91 | 4.2 – 5.59 |
| 2036 | 0 | 2.81 | 0 | 0 – 0.59 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ESP · API docs
