Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Estonia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 50/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 23 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.5 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.00, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.02) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-04-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-04-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-09-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-09-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+5% skill vs naive; realized ±0.5992 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Estonia: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-2.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.1 | 4.18 | -3.98 | -0.75 – 0.95 |
| 2028 | -0.3 | 6.76 | -7.36 | -1.79 – 1.19 |
| 2030 | -0.7 | 8.41 | -9.81 | -2.64 – 1.24 |
| 2035 | -1.7 | 11.19 | -14.59 | -4.6 – 1.2 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 79.47 | 93.42 | 67.38 | 76.21 – 82.74 |
| 2028 | 81.69 | 105.85 | 60.75 | 74.32 – 89.06 |
| 2030 | 83.91 | 115.09 | 56.88 | 72.74 – 95.08 |
| 2035 | 89.45 | 133.56 | 51.23 | 68.84 – 110.07 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49.1bn | 52.9bn | 45.8bn | 47.6bn – 50.6bn |
| 2028 | 54.3bn | 61bn | 48.6bn | 50.3bn – 58.4bn |
| 2030 | 59.6bn | 68.1bn | 52.2bn | 52.8bn – 66.3bn |
| 2035 | 72.7bn | 84.8bn | 62.2bn | 57.6bn – 87.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.5 | 12 | -10 | -0.85 – 3.85 |
| 2028 | 3.36 | 12 | -10 | -0.83 – 7.56 |
| 2030 | 5.23 | 12 | -10 | -0.4 – 10.85 |
| 2035 | 9.89 | 12 | -10 | 0.94 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.8k | 38.7k | 33.2k | 34.7k – 36.9k |
| 2028 | 39.4k | 44.5k | 34.9k | 36.5k – 42.3k |
| 2030 | 42.9k | 49.5k | 37.2k | 38.1k – 47.8k |
| 2035 | 51.9k | 61.2k | 43.8k | 41.1k – 62.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.09(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.61 | 6.08 | 0.97 | 2.95 – 4.28 |
| 2029 | 3.05 | 7.32 | 0 | 1.85 – 4.25 |
| 2031 | 2.77 | 8.29 | 0 | 1.19 – 4.35 |
| 2036 | 2.54 | 10.36 | 0 | 0.21 – 4.88 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.89 | 31.82 | 19.05 | 24.56 – 27.21 |
| 2028 | 29.66 | 39.93 | 17.82 | 26.66 – 32.67 |
| 2030 | 33.44 | 46.69 | 18.15 | 28.73 – 38.15 |
| 2035 | 42.88 | 61.62 | 21.25 | 33.13 – 52.62 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed77.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 78.74 | 92.12 | 65.37 | 75.44 – 82.05 |
| 2028 | 81.43 | 104.6 | 58.26 | 73.98 – 88.89 |
| 2030 | 84.12 | 114.04 | 54.21 | 72.82 – 95.43 |
| 2035 | 90.85 | 133.15 | 48.55 | 69.84 – 111.86 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 23.62 | -5 | 2 – 10 |
| 2028 | 7.83 | 38.34 | -5 | 0.69 – 14.97 |
| 2030 | 9.66 | 49.05 | -5 | 0.16 – 19.17 |
| 2035 | 14.23 | 50 | -5 | -0.39 – 28.86 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.98 | 17.2 | -5 | 0.99 – 6.97 |
| 2029 | 4.82 | 27.72 | -5 | -0.48 – 10.13 |
| 2031 | 5.13 | 34.68 | -5 | -1.83 – 12.09 |
| 2036 | 5.29 | 47.08 | -5 | -4.82 – 15.4 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.87 | 29.32 | 19.15 | 22.71 – 25.03 |
| 2028 | 22.84 | 32.27 | 14.66 | 20.39 – 25.28 |
| 2030 | 21.8 | 33.99 | 11.24 | 18.32 – 25.29 |
| 2035 | 19.22 | 36.45 | 4.28 | 13.68 – 24.75 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.3m – 1.4m |
| 2028 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.3m – 1.5m |
| 2030 | 1.3m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.2m – 1.5m |
| 2035 | 1.3m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.1m – 1.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.16 | 15 | -8.08 | 1.23 – 5.08 |
| 2028 | 6 | 15 | -10 | 2.47 – 9.53 |
| 2030 | 8.85 | 15 | -10 | 3.95 – 13.75 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 6.68 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.5bn | 3.2bn | 1.7bn | 2.3bn – 2.6bn |
| 2028 | 2.6bn | 4bn | 1.3bn | 2.3bn – 3bn |
| 2030 | 2.8bn | 4.5bn | 1.1bn | 2.3bn – 3.3bn |
| 2035 | 3.2bn | 5.6bn | 777m | 2.3bn – 4.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.7 | 1.05 | 0.35 | 0.63 – 0.77 |
| 2028 | 0.66 | 1.27 | 0.06 | 0.52 – 0.81 |
| 2030 | 0.65 | 1.43 | 0 | 0.45 – 0.85 |
| 2035 | 0.64 | 1.74 | 0 | 0.31 – 0.96 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.5bn | 3.3bn | 1.7bn | 2.3bn – 2.7bn |
| 2028 | 2.7bn | 4bn | 1.3bn | 2.3bn – 3bn |
| 2030 | 2.9bn | 4.6bn | 1.1bn | 2.4bn – 3.3bn |
| 2035 | 3.3bn | 5.7bn | 860m | 2.4bn – 4.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.65 | 10.23 | 7.07 | 8.27 – 9.03 |
| 2028 | 9.33 | 12.07 | 6.59 | 8.46 – 10.2 |
| 2030 | 10.01 | 13.54 | 6.47 | 8.66 – 11.35 |
| 2035 | 11.7 | 16.7 | 6.7 | 9.06 – 14.34 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/EST · API docs
