Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Estonia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 40/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 22 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.56 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.20, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.16) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-04-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-07-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+5% skill vs naive; realized ±6.3777 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Estonia: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.11 | 2.67 | -4.89 | -1.9 – -0.32 |
| 2029 | -1.13 | 5.43 | -7.68 | -2.52 – 0.26 |
| 2031 | -1.15 | 7.31 | -9.61 | -2.97 – 0.67 |
| 2036 | -1.2 | 10.77 | -13.16 | -3.83 – 1.44 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 79.47 | 93.42 | 67.38 | 76.21 – 82.74 |
| 2028 | 81.69 | 105.85 | 60.75 | 74.32 – 89.06 |
| 2030 | 83.91 | 115.09 | 56.88 | 72.74 – 95.08 |
| 2035 | 89.45 | 133.56 | 51.23 | 68.84 – 110.07 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 54.1bn | 58bn | 50.8bn | 52.5bn – 55.8bn |
| 2029 | 60.5bn | 67.2bn | 54.7bn | 56bn – 65bn |
| 2031 | 66.9bn | 75.6bn | 59.4bn | 59.3bn – 74.5bn |
| 2036 | 82.8bn | 95.1bn | 72.2bn | 65.6bn – 100bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.56 | 10.51 | -6.21 | 0.04 – 3.07 |
| 2029 | 1.91 | 12 | -10 | -0.77 – 4.59 |
| 2031 | 2.27 | 12 | -10 | -1.25 – 5.79 |
| 2036 | 3.15 | 12 | -10 | -2.07 – 8.38 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 39.5k | 42.5k | 36.9k | 38.3k – 40.7k |
| 2029 | 44k | 49.3k | 39.5k | 40.8k – 47.3k |
| 2031 | 48.6k | 55.3k | 42.8k | 43.1k – 54.1k |
| 2036 | 60k | 69.5k | 51.7k | 47.5k – 72.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.25 | 5.75 | 0.57 | 2.58 – 3.92 |
| 2029 | 2.83 | 7.16 | 0 | 1.63 – 4.03 |
| 2031 | 2.63 | 8.21 | 0 | 1.04 – 4.21 |
| 2036 | 2.46 | 10.36 | 0 | 0.12 – 4.8 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 29.93 | 35.75 | 23.22 | 28.56 – 31.31 |
| 2029 | 34.2 | 44.28 | 22.58 | 31.01 – 37.39 |
| 2031 | 38.47 | 51.48 | 23.46 | 33.39 – 43.55 |
| 2036 | 49.14 | 67.53 | 27.92 | 38.45 – 59.83 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed77.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 78.74 | 92.12 | 65.37 | 75.44 – 82.05 |
| 2028 | 81.43 | 104.6 | 58.26 | 73.98 – 88.89 |
| 2030 | 84.12 | 114.04 | 54.21 | 72.82 – 95.43 |
| 2035 | 90.85 | 133.15 | 48.55 | 69.84 – 111.86 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.47 | 20.62 | -5 | -0.39 – 7.33 |
| 2029 | 2.03 | 31.73 | -5 | -4.65 – 8.71 |
| 2031 | 0.59 | 38.93 | -5 | -5 – 9.17 |
| 2036 | -3.01 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 9.49 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.28 | 16.54 | -5 | 0.28 – 6.27 |
| 2029 | 4.5 | 27.48 | -5 | -0.81 – 9.81 |
| 2031 | 4.94 | 34.61 | -5 | -2.03 – 11.91 |
| 2036 | 5.17 | 47.12 | -5 | -4.96 – 15.3 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.87 | 29.32 | 19.15 | 22.71 – 25.03 |
| 2028 | 22.84 | 32.27 | 14.66 | 20.39 – 25.28 |
| 2030 | 21.8 | 33.99 | 11.24 | 18.32 – 25.29 |
| 2035 | 19.22 | 36.45 | 4.28 | 13.68 – 24.75 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.3m – 1.4m |
| 2029 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.3m – 1.5m |
| 2031 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.2m – 1.5m |
| 2036 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.1m – 1.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.16 | 15 | -8.08 | 1.23 – 5.08 |
| 2028 | 6 | 15 | -10 | 2.47 – 9.53 |
| 2030 | 8.85 | 15 | -10 | 3.95 – 13.75 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 6.68 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.5bn | 3.2bn | 1.7bn | 2.3bn – 2.6bn |
| 2028 | 2.6bn | 4bn | 1.3bn | 2.3bn – 3bn |
| 2030 | 2.8bn | 4.5bn | 1.1bn | 2.3bn – 3.3bn |
| 2035 | 3.2bn | 5.6bn | 777m | 2.3bn – 4.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.72(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.7 | 1.05 | 0.35 | 0.63 – 0.77 |
| 2028 | 0.66 | 1.27 | 0.06 | 0.52 – 0.8 |
| 2030 | 0.65 | 1.43 | 0 | 0.45 – 0.85 |
| 2035 | 0.64 | 1.74 | 0 | 0.31 – 0.96 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.5bn | 3.3bn | 1.7bn | 2.3bn – 2.7bn |
| 2028 | 2.7bn | 4bn | 1.3bn | 2.3bn – 3bn |
| 2030 | 2.9bn | 4.6bn | 1.1bn | 2.4bn – 3.3bn |
| 2035 | 3.3bn | 5.7bn | 860m | 2.4bn – 4.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.73 | 9.44 | 6.02 | 7.35 – 8.12 |
| 2029 | 8.59 | 11.55 | 5.63 | 7.73 – 9.46 |
| 2031 | 9.45 | 13.27 | 5.63 | 8.11 – 10.79 |
| 2036 | 11.6 | 17 | 6.2 | 8.92 – 14.29 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/EST · API docs
