Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Ethiopia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 36/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 9.94 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.28, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.28) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (+0% skill vs naive; realized ±3.026 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Ethiopia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-2.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.96 | 1.29 | -5.21 | -2.65 – -1.26 |
| 2029 | -1.07 | 4.56 | -6.7 | -2.27 – 0.13 |
| 2031 | -0.19 | 7.08 | -7.45 | -1.75 – 1.38 |
| 2036 | 2.03 | 12.31 | -8.25 | -0.39 – 4.45 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.54 | 19.78 | 8.13 | 12.43 – 14.65 |
| 2028 | 14.05 | 24.86 | 4.68 | 11.83 – 16.27 |
| 2030 | 14.56 | 28.51 | 2.46 | 11.4 – 17.72 |
| 2035 | 15.83 | 35.57 | 0 | 10.48 – 21.18 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed126.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 119.7bn | 146.6bn | 96.4bn | 114.6bn – 124.8bn |
| 2029 | 116.3bn | 163bn | 75.9bn | 105.2bn – 127.5bn |
| 2031 | 112.9bn | 173.2bn | 60.7bn | 96.7bn – 129.1bn |
| 2036 | 104.5bn | 189.6bn | 30.6bn | 77.6bn – 131.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.94 | 12 | 8.08 | 9.42 – 10.45 |
| 2029 | 11.62 | 12 | 8.4 | 10.44 – 12 |
| 2031 | 12 | 12 | 7.84 | 10.24 – 12 |
| 2036 | 12 | 12 | 6.12 | 8.95 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed932.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.1k | 1.3k | 894.4 | 1k – 1.1k |
| 2029 | 1.1k | 1.5k | 774.89 | 1k – 1.2k |
| 2031 | 1.1k | 1.6k | 698.48 | 973.44 – 1.3k |
| 2036 | 1.2k | 1.9k | 570.57 | 899.32 – 1.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 37.99 | 47.49 | 27.02 | 35.92 – 40.06 |
| 2029 | 33.16 | 49.63 | 14.16 | 29.04 – 37.29 |
| 2031 | 28.34 | 49.59 | 3.81 | 22.8 – 33.87 |
| 2036 | 16.27 | 46.34 | 0 | 9.04 – 23.5 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.18(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.34 | 27.25 | 11.42 | 17.81 – 20.86 |
| 2028 | 17.65 | 31.36 | 3.95 | 14.71 – 20.6 |
| 2030 | 15.97 | 33.67 | 0 | 11.99 – 19.96 |
| 2035 | 11.77 | 36.8 | 0 | 6.06 – 17.48 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.23(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 12.19 | 23.86 | -0.31 | 9.41 – 14.97 |
| 2029 | 10.19 | 30.4 | -5 | 5.22 – 15.16 |
| 2031 | 8.19 | 34.28 | -5 | 1.75 – 14.63 |
| 2036 | 3.18 | 40.09 | -5 | -5 – 11.87 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.57 | 22.25 | 15.38 | 17.74 – 19.39 |
| 2028 | 14.53 | 20.91 | 9 | 12.92 – 16.14 |
| 2030 | 10.49 | 18.73 | 3.36 | 8.48 – 12.51 |
| 2035 | 0.4 | 12.04 | 0 | 0 – 2.22 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed135.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 108.8m | 124.5m | 94.3m | 105.4m – 112.2m |
| 2029 | 83.4m | 110.5m | 58.3m | 77.2m – 89.6m |
| 2031 | 58m | 93m | 25.5m | 50.6m – 65.4m |
| 2036 | 0 | 49.5m | 0 | 0 – 3.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.19 | 12.01 | 3.58 | 6.48 – 7.91 |
| 2028 | 8.84 | 15 | 2.59 | 7.38 – 10.31 |
| 2030 | 10.49 | 15 | 2.42 | 8.3 – 12.67 |
| 2035 | 14.61 | 15 | 3.19 | 10.37 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.8bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.1bn | 6.2bn | 2bn | 3.7bn – 4.5bn |
| 2027 | 4.9bn | 8.4bn | 1.3bn | 4.1bn – 5.6bn |
| 2029 | 5.6bn | 10.2bn | 1bn | 4.5bn – 6.8bn |
| 2034 | 7.5bn | 14.1bn | 1bn | 5.3bn – 9.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.78(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.74 | 2.87 | 0.61 | 1.54 – 1.94 |
| 2027 | 1.69 | 3.65 | 0 | 1.31 – 2.07 |
| 2029 | 1.67 | 4.19 | 0 | 1.15 – 2.19 |
| 2034 | 1.65 | 5.22 | 0 | 0.84 – 2.46 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.8bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.1bn | 6.2bn | 2bn | 3.7bn – 4.5bn |
| 2027 | 4.9bn | 8.4bn | 1.3bn | 4.1bn – 5.6bn |
| 2029 | 5.6bn | 10.2bn | 1bn | 4.5bn – 6.8bn |
| 2034 | 7.5bn | 14.1bn | 1bn | 5.3bn – 9.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.18 | 3.58 | 2.77 | 3.06 – 3.29 |
| 2028 | 2.88 | 3.59 | 2.18 | 2.64 – 3.13 |
| 2030 | 2.59 | 3.5 | 1.68 | 2.24 – 2.94 |
| 2035 | 1.86 | 3.15 | 0.57 | 1.37 – 2.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ETH · API docs
