Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Ethiopia: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 34/100); the economy is in expansion; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 10.87 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.32, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.28) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (+0% skill vs naive; realized ±1.6685 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Ethiopia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-2.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.32 | 2.56 | -3.2 | -0.92 – 0.28 |
| 2028 | 0.84 | 5.84 | -4.16 | -0.23 – 1.91 |
| 2030 | 2 | 8.45 | -4.45 | 0.52 – 3.47 |
| 2035 | 4.9 | 14.02 | -4.22 | 2.25 – 7.54 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.54 | 19.78 | 8.13 | 12.43 – 14.65 |
| 2028 | 14.05 | 24.86 | 4.68 | 11.83 – 16.27 |
| 2030 | 14.56 | 28.51 | 2.46 | 11.4 – 17.72 |
| 2035 | 15.83 | 35.57 | 0 | 10.48 – 21.18 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed126.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 130.5bn | 156.3bn | 108.1bn | 125.3bn – 135.7bn |
| 2028 | 140.1bn | 184.9bn | 101.3bn | 128.1bn – 152.2bn |
| 2030 | 149.8bn | 207.6bn | 99.7bn | 130.9bn – 168.6bn |
| 2035 | 173.9bn | 255.7bn | 103bn | 136.3bn – 211.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.87 | 12 | 9.08 | 10.35 – 11.39 |
| 2028 | 12 | 12 | 8.9 | 10.83 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 10.27 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | 6.34 | 8.99 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed932.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 946.97 | 1.1k | 774.57 | 908.14 – 985.8 |
| 2028 | 977.05 | 1.3k | 678.44 | 889.13 – 1.1k |
| 2030 | 1k | 1.5k | 621.62 | 873.6 – 1.1k |
| 2035 | 1.1k | 1.7k | 537.14 | 834.26 – 1.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.96 | 50.87 | 29.53 | 38.78 – 43.14 |
| 2028 | 36.68 | 53.85 | 16.88 | 32.28 – 41.08 |
| 2030 | 32.41 | 54.56 | 6.84 | 26.4 – 38.41 |
| 2035 | 21.71 | 53.05 | 0 | 13.42 – 30.01 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.18(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.34 | 27.25 | 11.42 | 17.81 – 20.86 |
| 2028 | 17.65 | 31.36 | 3.95 | 14.71 – 20.6 |
| 2030 | 15.97 | 33.67 | 0 | 11.99 – 19.96 |
| 2035 | 11.77 | 36.8 | 0 | 6.06 – 17.48 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.23(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.96 | 25.03 | -4.12 | 7.66 – 14.25 |
| 2028 | 0.03 | 24.4 | -5 | -5 – 5.48 |
| 2030 | -5 | 26.47 | -5 | -5 – 2.38 |
| 2035 | -5 | 39.5 | -5 | -5 – 5.67 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.57 | 22.25 | 15.38 | 17.74 – 19.39 |
| 2028 | 14.53 | 20.91 | 9 | 12.92 – 16.14 |
| 2030 | 10.49 | 18.73 | 3.36 | 8.48 – 12.51 |
| 2035 | 0.4 | 12.04 | 0 | 0 – 2.22 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed135.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 134.6m | 141m | 128.7m | 130.4m – 138.8m |
| 2028 | 138.3m | 144.9m | 132.3m | 128.1m – 148.6m |
| 2030 | 142.1m | 148.8m | 135.9m | 126m – 158.2m |
| 2035 | 151.5m | 158.6m | 144.8m | 120.1m – 182.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.19 | 12.01 | 3.58 | 6.48 – 7.91 |
| 2028 | 8.84 | 15 | 2.59 | 7.38 – 10.31 |
| 2030 | 10.49 | 15 | 2.42 | 8.3 – 12.67 |
| 2035 | 14.61 | 15 | 3.19 | 10.37 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.8bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.1bn | 6.2bn | 2bn | 3.7bn – 4.5bn |
| 2027 | 4.9bn | 8.4bn | 1.3bn | 4.1bn – 5.6bn |
| 2029 | 5.6bn | 10.2bn | 1bn | 4.5bn – 6.8bn |
| 2034 | 7.5bn | 14.1bn | 1bn | 5.3bn – 9.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.78(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.74 | 2.87 | 0.61 | 1.54 – 1.94 |
| 2027 | 1.69 | 3.65 | 0 | 1.31 – 2.07 |
| 2029 | 1.67 | 4.19 | 0 | 1.15 – 2.19 |
| 2034 | 1.65 | 5.22 | 0 | 0.84 – 2.46 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.8bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.1bn | 6.2bn | 2bn | 3.7bn – 4.5bn |
| 2027 | 4.9bn | 8.4bn | 1.3bn | 4.1bn – 5.6bn |
| 2029 | 5.6bn | 10.2bn | 1bn | 4.5bn – 6.8bn |
| 2034 | 7.5bn | 14.1bn | 1bn | 5.3bn – 9.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.18 | 3.58 | 2.77 | 3.06 – 3.29 |
| 2028 | 2.88 | 3.59 | 2.18 | 2.64 – 3.13 |
| 2030 | 2.59 | 3.5 | 1.68 | 2.24 – 2.94 |
| 2035 | 1.86 | 3.15 | 0.57 | 1.37 – 2.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ETH · API docs
