Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
EUQ: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 48/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.87 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.04, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.08) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-12% skill vs naive; realized ±4.9851 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
EUQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed1.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.42 | 3.15 | -0.32 | 1.04 – 1.8 |
| 2029 | 1.26 | 4.26 | -1.75 | 0.58 – 1.93 |
| 2031 | 1.1 | 4.97 | -2.78 | 0.22 – 1.97 |
| 2036 | 0.69 | 6.17 | -4.79 | -0.59 – 1.97 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.3T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 33.8T | 36.5T | 31.5T | 32.8T – 34.9T |
| 2029 | 37.6T | 42.3T | 33.6T | 34.8T – 40.4T |
| 2031 | 41.4T | 47.4T | 36.2T | 36.7T – 46.1T |
| 2036 | 50.9T | 59.4T | 43.5T | 40.3T – 61.5T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.87 | 4.19 | -2 | 0.3 – 1.44 |
| 2029 | -0.12 | 5.62 | -5.1 | -1.13 – 0.88 |
| 2031 | -1.11 | 6.3 | -7.54 | -2.44 – 0.21 |
| 2036 | -3.6 | 6.88 | -10 | -5.92 – -1.27 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.8k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 45.8k | 49.4k | 42.7k | 44.4k – 47.2k |
| 2029 | 50.9k | 57.1k | 45.5k | 47.1k – 54.7k |
| 2031 | 56k | 64.1k | 49k | 49.7k – 62.4k |
| 2036 | 68.8k | 80.2k | 59k | 54.6k – 83.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 78.4 | 87.16 | 68.29 | 75.8 – 81 |
| 2029 | 78.8 | 93.97 | 61.29 | 72.68 – 84.91 |
| 2031 | 79.19 | 98.78 | 56.59 | 69.85 – 88.54 |
| 2036 | 80.19 | 107.89 | 48.23 | 63.1 – 97.28 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.36 | 10.51 | -4.3 | 1.72 – 5 |
| 2029 | 2.94 | 15.32 | -5 | 0.05 – 5.82 |
| 2031 | 2.52 | 18.51 | -5 | -1.23 – 6.26 |
| 2036 | 1.47 | 24.08 | -5 | -3.78 – 6.72 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed738.7m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 738.7m | 773.6m | 706.3m | 715.8m – 761.6m |
| 2029 | 738.4m | 773.3m | 706m | 683.8m – 793m |
| 2031 | 738.1m | 773m | 705.8m | 654.3m – 821.9m |
| 2036 | 737.5m | 772.3m | 705.1m | 584.5m – 890.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-03 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/EUQ · API docs
