Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
EUQ: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 52/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.67 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.04, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.12) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-12% skill vs naive; realized ±0.3684 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
EUQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed1.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.65 | 3.36 | -0.06 | 1.27 – 2.03 |
| 2028 | 1.55 | 4.51 | -1.41 | 0.87 – 2.23 |
| 2030 | 1.45 | 5.28 | -2.38 | 0.55 – 2.35 |
| 2035 | 1.2 | 6.61 | -4.21 | -0.1 – 2.5 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.4T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.3T | 34.1T | 28.8T | 30.3T – 32.3T |
| 2028 | 34.4T | 39.3T | 30.1T | 31.8T – 36.9T |
| 2030 | 37.5T | 43.8T | 32T | 33.2T – 41.8T |
| 2035 | 45.3T | 54.2T | 37.5T | 35.9T – 54.7T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.67 | 12 | -8.32 | -0.28 – 3.62 |
| 2028 | 2.21 | 12 | -10 | -1.23 – 5.64 |
| 2030 | 2.75 | 12 | -10 | -1.77 – 7.26 |
| 2035 | 4.09 | 12 | -10 | -2.63 – 10.82 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.8k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.3k | 46.1k | 39k | 41k – 43.6k |
| 2028 | 46.4k | 53k | 40.7k | 43k – 49.9k |
| 2030 | 50.6k | 59.1k | 43.2k | 44.8k – 56.3k |
| 2035 | 61k | 73k | 50.5k | 48.3k – 73.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed77.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 77.26 | 86.17 | 66.98 | 74.65 – 79.87 |
| 2028 | 77.38 | 92.81 | 59.57 | 71.29 – 83.47 |
| 2030 | 77.5 | 97.42 | 54.51 | 68.23 – 86.76 |
| 2035 | 77.79 | 105.97 | 45.28 | 61.01 – 94.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.03 | 11.43 | -3.9 | 2.32 – 5.73 |
| 2028 | 4.17 | 16.98 | -5 | 1.12 – 7.21 |
| 2030 | 4.31 | 20.85 | -5 | 0.29 – 8.32 |
| 2035 | 4.66 | 28.06 | -5 | -1.28 – 10.59 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed738.5m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 738.5m | 773.4m | 706.1m | 715.6m – 761.4m |
| 2028 | 738.1m | 773m | 705.7m | 683.5m – 792.7m |
| 2030 | 737.6m | 772.5m | 705.3m | 653.9m – 821.4m |
| 2035 | 736.6m | 771.4m | 704.2m | 583.8m – 889.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/EUQ · API docs
