Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
European Union: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 42/100); the economy is in expansion; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.04 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.16, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.22) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-8% skill vs naive; realized ±6.6423 over 25) · a track record, not a guarantee
European Union: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed49.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50.1 | 56.68 | 44.4 | 48.36 – 51.84 |
| 2028 | 51.09 | 62.48 | 41.21 | 47.01 – 55.17 |
| 2030 | 52.07 | 66.78 | 39.32 | 45.8 – 58.34 |
| 2035 | 54.53 | 75.34 | 36.5 | 42.84 – 66.23 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.2T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.1T | 24.2T | 20.3T | 21.5T – 22.8T |
| 2028 | 24.4T | 28T | 21.2T | 22.6T – 26.2T |
| 2030 | 26.6T | 31.3T | 22.5T | 23.6T – 29.6T |
| 2035 | 32.2T | 38.8T | 26.4T | 25.5T – 38.8T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.04 | 12 | -7.96 | 0.08 – 4 |
| 2028 | 3.08 | 12 | -10 | -0.4 – 6.57 |
| 2030 | 4.13 | 12 | -10 | -0.51 – 8.76 |
| 2035 | 6.73 | 12 | -10 | -0.43 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49k | 53.6k | 44.9k | 47.4k – 50.5k |
| 2028 | 53.7k | 61.8k | 46.6k | 49.7k – 57.6k |
| 2030 | 58.4k | 68.8k | 49.3k | 51.7k – 65k |
| 2035 | 70.1k | 84.9k | 57.3k | 55.6k – 84.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed45.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 46.28 | 54.09 | 38.47 | 44.34 – 48.22 |
| 2028 | 47.21 | 60.74 | 33.67 | 42.87 – 51.55 |
| 2030 | 48.14 | 65.61 | 30.66 | 41.61 – 54.66 |
| 2035 | 50.46 | 75.17 | 25.75 | 38.6 – 62.31 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.47(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.84 | 10.12 | -4.96 | 1.18 – 4.5 |
| 2028 | 2.88 | 15.49 | -5 | -0.05 – 5.82 |
| 2030 | 2.93 | 19.21 | -5 | -0.91 – 6.77 |
| 2035 | 3.04 | 26.06 | -5 | -2.55 – 8.63 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.16 | 22.33 | 20.15 | 20.51 – 21.82 |
| 2028 | 20.81 | 22.83 | 19.07 | 19.27 – 22.35 |
| 2030 | 20.46 | 23.06 | 18.21 | 18.14 – 22.79 |
| 2035 | 19.59 | 23.27 | 16.4 | 15.52 – 23.65 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed451.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 450.8m | 472.1m | 431m | 436.8m – 464.7m |
| 2028 | 451.7m | 473.1m | 431.9m | 418.3m – 485.2m |
| 2030 | 452.7m | 474.1m | 432.9m | 401.3m – 504.1m |
| 2035 | 455.2m | 476.7m | 435.2m | 360.8m – 549.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.8 | 12.61 | -6.3 | 0.43 – 3.18 |
| 2028 | 2.2 | 15 | -10 | -0.24 – 4.65 |
| 2030 | 2.6 | 15 | -10 | -0.63 – 5.83 |
| 2035 | 3.59 | 15 | -10 | -1.25 – 8.44 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.02 | 5.22 | 2.82 | 3.78 – 4.27 |
| 2028 | 3.79 | 5.87 | 1.71 | 3.29 – 4.29 |
| 2030 | 3.68 | 6.36 | 1 | 2.97 – 4.38 |
| 2035 | 3.58 | 7.38 | 0 | 2.43 – 4.74 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.67 | 6.3 | 5.03 | 5.48 – 5.85 |
| 2028 | 5.15 | 6.25 | 4.05 | 4.73 – 5.56 |
| 2030 | 4.63 | 6.05 | 3.21 | 4.04 – 5.21 |
| 2035 | 3.33 | 5.33 | 1.32 | 2.49 – 4.17 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-01 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/EUU · API docs
