Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Fragile and conflict affected situations: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 47/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 12 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.4 for 2025.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.06, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2025: balanced (projected sentiment +0.30) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-12% skill vs naive) · a track record, not a guarantee
Fragile and conflict affected situations: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed27.89(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 28.13 | 37.05 | 20.39 | 26.4 – 29.85 |
| 2027 | 28.59 | 44.05 | 15.19 | 25.01 – 32.17 |
| 2029 | 29.05 | 49.02 | 11.75 | 23.88 – 34.23 |
| 2034 | 30.21 | 58.45 | 5.75 | 21.35 – 39.08 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7T(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.6T | 2T | 1.3T | 1.6T – 1.7T |
| 2027 | 1.6T | 2.2T | 1.1T | 1.5T – 1.8T |
| 2029 | 1.6T | 2.4T | 925.6bn | 1.4T – 1.8T |
| 2034 | 1.6T | 2.7T | 595.1bn | 1.2T – 1.9T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.01(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.4 | 12 | -7.5 | 0.46 – 4.34 |
| 2027 | 3.39 | 12 | -10 | -0.07 – 6.85 |
| 2029 | 4.38 | 12 | -10 | -0.22 – 8.99 |
| 2034 | 6.87 | 12 | -10 | -0.25 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.5k | 1.8k | 1.2k | 1.4k – 1.6k |
| 2027 | 1.4k | 2k | 884.43 | 1.3k – 1.6k |
| 2029 | 1.3k | 2.1k | 648.26 | 1.1k – 1.5k |
| 2034 | 1.1k | 2.2k | 160.03 | 814.7 – 1.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.9(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 32.61 | 37.32 | 27.9 | 31.37 – 33.85 |
| 2027 | 34.03 | 42.19 | 25.88 | 31.15 – 36.92 |
| 2029 | 35.46 | 45.98 | 24.93 | 31.01 – 39.9 |
| 2034 | 39.01 | 53.9 | 24.13 | 30.49 – 47.53 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.1bn | 1.1bn | 1bn | 1bn – 1.1bn |
| 2027 | 1.1bn | 1.2bn | 1.1bn | 1bn – 1.2bn |
| 2029 | 1.1bn | 1.2bn | 1.1bn | 1bn – 1.3bn |
| 2034 | 1.2bn | 1.3bn | 1.1bn | 950.4m – 1.4bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.65(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -0.53 | 13.74 | -10 | -2.33 – 1.27 |
| 2027 | -0.02 | 15 | -10 | -3.15 – 3.12 |
| 2029 | 0.5 | 15 | -10 | -3.56 – 4.57 |
| 2034 | 1.8 | 15 | -10 | -4.13 – 7.73 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.75 | 5.61 | 3.88 | 4.54 – 4.95 |
| 2028 | 4 | 5.49 | 2.5 | 3.57 – 4.42 |
| 2030 | 3.25 | 5.18 | 1.31 | 2.69 – 3.8 |
| 2035 | 1.37 | 4.11 | 0 | 0.73 – 2.01 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/FCS · API docs
