Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Fragility, Conflict, and Violence (FCV) situations: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 49/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 14 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.65 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.02, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.14) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-12% skill vs naive) · a track record, not a guarantee
Fragility, Conflict, and Violence (FCV) situations: forward projections across 10 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2033, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed28.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.63 | 38.03 | 22.35 | 27.96 – 31.3 |
| 2028 | 31.17 | 45.72 | 18.56 | 27.59 – 34.74 |
| 2030 | 32.71 | 51.49 | 16.43 | 27.41 – 38.01 |
| 2035 | 36.55 | 63.12 | 13.53 | 26.91 – 46.2 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.9T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.8T | 2.2T | 1.5T | 1.8T – 1.9T |
| 2028 | 1.7T | 2.4T | 1.2T | 1.6T – 1.9T |
| 2030 | 1.6T | 2.4T | 905.5bn | 1.4T – 1.8T |
| 2035 | 1.3T | 2.5T | 343bn | 991.6bn – 1.7T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.65 | 7.14 | -3.11 | 0.71 – 2.59 |
| 2028 | 1.57 | 11.08 | -6.68 | -0.1 – 3.23 |
| 2030 | 1.48 | 12 | -9.16 | -0.69 – 3.64 |
| 2035 | 1.26 | 12 | -10 | -1.83 – 4.36 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6k | 2k | 1.3k | 1.6k – 1.7k |
| 2028 | 1.5k | 2.1k | 903.52 | 1.3k – 1.6k |
| 2030 | 1.3k | 2.1k | 568.52 | 1.1k – 1.5k |
| 2035 | 837.88 | 2k | 0 | 566.29 – 1.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.7 | 45.54 | 33.87 | 38.18 – 41.23 |
| 2028 | 43.01 | 53.12 | 32.9 | 39.4 – 46.62 |
| 2030 | 46.32 | 59.38 | 33.26 | 40.62 – 52.02 |
| 2035 | 54.59 | 73.05 | 36.13 | 43.03 – 66.15 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.01 | 10.58 | -3.03 | 2.49 – 5.53 |
| 2028 | 2.44 | 13.82 | -5 | -0.2 – 5.08 |
| 2030 | 0.86 | 15.56 | -5 | -2.47 – 4.2 |
| 2035 | -3.06 | 17.72 | -5 | -5 – 2.03 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1bn | 1.1bn | 1bn | 1.1bn – 1.1bn |
| 2028 | 1.1bn | 1.2bn | 1.1bn | 1bn – 1.2bn |
| 2030 | 1.2bn | 1.2bn | 1.1bn | 1bn – 1.3bn |
| 2035 | 1.2bn | 1.3bn | 1.2bn | 969m – 1.5bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.03 | 11.18 | -6.58 | -0.25 – 2.32 |
| 2028 | 3.63 | 15 | -9.55 | 1.26 – 6 |
| 2030 | 6.23 | 15 | -10 | 2.89 – 9.56 |
| 2035 | 12.72 | 15 | -10 | 6.68 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.77(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18.03 | 29.72 | 6.34 | 15.95 – 20.1 |
| 2026 | 19.52 | 36 | 0 | 15.49 – 23.56 |
| 2028 | 20.26 | 36 | 0 | 14.64 – 25.88 |
| 2033 | 20.84 | 36 | 0 | 11.85 – 29.84 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.96 | 5.8 | 4.11 | 4.75 – 5.17 |
| 2028 | 4.19 | 5.65 | 2.73 | 3.77 – 4.62 |
| 2030 | 3.42 | 5.31 | 1.54 | 2.86 – 3.99 |
| 2035 | 1.51 | 4.17 | 0 | 0.86 – 2.16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/FCV · API docs
