Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Finland: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 54/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 23 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.67 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.08, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.04) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-09-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-09-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±1.0335 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Finland: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed0.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1 | 3.99 | -1.79 | 0.49 – 1.71 |
| 2028 | 1.31 | 6.32 | -3.7 | 0.22 – 2.39 |
| 2030 | 1.51 | 7.98 | -4.95 | 0.07 – 2.95 |
| 2035 | 2.02 | 11.17 | -7.12 | -0.17 – 4.21 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.98 | 50.41 | 36.54 | 41.23 – 44.73 |
| 2028 | 44.28 | 57.15 | 33.13 | 40.32 – 48.24 |
| 2030 | 45.58 | 62.2 | 31.18 | 39.56 – 51.6 |
| 2035 | 48.84 | 72.33 | 28.47 | 37.67 – 60.01 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed317bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 324.6bn | 351.4bn | 301.3bn | 314.5bn – 334.6bn |
| 2028 | 343.2bn | 389.7bn | 302.9bn | 317.8bn – 368.6bn |
| 2030 | 361.8bn | 421.8bn | 309.9bn | 320.8bn – 402.9bn |
| 2035 | 408.5bn | 493.3bn | 334.9bn | 323.7bn – 493.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.67 | 6.3 | -4.21 | -0.29 – 1.62 |
| 2028 | 1.67 | 11.42 | -6.79 | -0.04 – 3.37 |
| 2030 | 2.67 | 12 | -8.24 | 0.36 – 4.98 |
| 2035 | 5.18 | 12 | -10 | 1.38 – 8.97 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed56.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 57.3k | 62k | 53.1k | 55.5k – 59k |
| 2028 | 60.1k | 68.3k | 52.9k | 55.6k – 64.5k |
| 2030 | 62.9k | 73.5k | 53.6k | 55.7k – 70k |
| 2035 | 69.9k | 85k | 56.8k | 55.4k – 84.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.8(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.13 | 5.01 | 1.11 | 2.61 – 3.64 |
| 2029 | 2.32 | 5.59 | 0 | 1.41 – 3.24 |
| 2031 | 1.93 | 6.15 | 0 | 0.74 – 3.12 |
| 2036 | 1.62 | 7.58 | 0 | 0 – 3.34 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed90.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 90.66 | 97.85 | 82.37 | 87.85 – 93.47 |
| 2028 | 95.19 | 107.64 | 80.82 | 88.14 – 102.23 |
| 2030 | 99.71 | 115.79 | 81.16 | 88.39 – 111.03 |
| 2035 | 111.02 | 133.76 | 84.78 | 87.99 – 134.05 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.6 | 50.17 | 33.03 | 39.62 – 43.57 |
| 2028 | 42.65 | 57.49 | 27.81 | 38.33 – 46.97 |
| 2030 | 43.7 | 62.87 | 24.54 | 37.27 – 50.13 |
| 2035 | 46.34 | 73.44 | 19.24 | 34.78 – 57.9 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.23 | 6.78 | -5 | -1.23 – 1.7 |
| 2028 | -1.51 | 9.83 | -5 | -4.09 – 1.08 |
| 2030 | -3.25 | 11.38 | -5 | -5 – 0.26 |
| 2035 | -5 | 15.69 | -5 | -5 – 0.39 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.7(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.52 | 9.24 | -4.69 | 0.99 – 4.05 |
| 2029 | 2.34 | 13.98 | -5 | -0.35 – 5.03 |
| 2031 | 2.28 | 17.3 | -5 | -1.24 – 5.79 |
| 2036 | 2.24 | 23.5 | -5 | -2.83 – 7.31 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.24 | 22.51 | 20.13 | 20.58 – 21.9 |
| 2028 | 19.78 | 21.99 | 17.87 | 18.32 – 21.25 |
| 2030 | 18.33 | 21.18 | 15.86 | 16.25 – 20.41 |
| 2035 | 14.7 | 18.72 | 11.21 | 11.65 – 17.74 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.6m | 5.9m | 5.4m | 5.5m – 5.8m |
| 2028 | 5.7m | 5.9m | 5.4m | 5.2m – 6.1m |
| 2030 | 5.7m | 6m | 5.4m | 5m – 6.3m |
| 2035 | 5.8m | 6m | 5.5m | 4.6m – 7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4 | 5.47 | -1.65 | 0.87 – 1.93 |
| 2028 | 2.72 | 9.77 | -2.57 | 1.71 – 3.73 |
| 2030 | 4.04 | 13.15 | -2.79 | 2.58 – 5.5 |
| 2035 | 7.34 | 15 | -2.31 | 4.56 – 10.13 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.1bn | 19.5bn | 14.8bn | 16.5bn – 17.7bn |
| 2028 | 19.2bn | 23.3bn | 15.1bn | 17.6bn – 20.7bn |
| 2030 | 21.3bn | 26.5bn | 16bn | 18.8bn – 23.8bn |
| 2035 | 26.5bn | 33.9bn | 19bn | 21bn – 31.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.53 | 1.88 | 1.18 | 1.45 – 1.61 |
| 2028 | 1.4 | 2 | 0.8 | 1.24 – 1.55 |
| 2030 | 1.33 | 2.11 | 0.56 | 1.11 – 1.56 |
| 2035 | 1.28 | 2.37 | 0.18 | 0.91 – 1.65 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.9bn | 27bn | 20.8bn | 23bn – 24.7bn |
| 2028 | 27.5bn | 32.9bn | 22.2bn | 25.4bn – 29.7bn |
| 2030 | 31.2bn | 38.1bn | 24.3bn | 27.6bn – 34.7bn |
| 2035 | 40.3bn | 50.1bn | 30.5bn | 32bn – 48.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.78 | 11.33 | 8.23 | 9.39 – 10.18 |
| 2028 | 10.43 | 13.11 | 7.75 | 9.52 – 11.34 |
| 2030 | 11.07 | 14.54 | 7.61 | 9.66 – 12.49 |
| 2035 | 12.69 | 17.58 | 7.79 | 9.91 – 15.47 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-11-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/FIN · API docs
