Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Finland: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 56/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 22 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.08 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.12, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.14) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-07-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±4.4195 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Finland: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed0.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.16 | 2.97 | -2.65 | -0.43 – 0.75 |
| 2029 | 0.29 | 5.15 | -4.58 | -0.75 – 1.33 |
| 2031 | 0.42 | 6.7 | -5.86 | -0.95 – 1.78 |
| 2036 | 0.73 | 9.61 | -8.15 | -1.24 – 2.7 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.98 | 50.41 | 36.54 | 41.23 – 44.73 |
| 2028 | 44.28 | 57.15 | 33.13 | 40.32 – 48.24 |
| 2030 | 45.58 | 62.2 | 31.18 | 39.56 – 51.6 |
| 2035 | 48.84 | 72.33 | 28.47 | 37.67 – 60.01 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed317bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 347.5bn | 373.5bn | 324.9bn | 336.7bn – 358.2bn |
| 2029 | 372.2bn | 417.2bn | 333.1bn | 344.6bn – 399.7bn |
| 2031 | 396.9bn | 455.1bn | 346.5bn | 351.8bn – 441.9bn |
| 2036 | 458.7bn | 540.9bn | 387.4bn | 363.5bn – 553.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.08 | 4.17 | -1.6 | 0.55 – 1.61 |
| 2029 | 1.28 | 6.63 | -3.35 | 0.33 – 2.24 |
| 2031 | 1.49 | 8.39 | -4.5 | 0.22 – 2.76 |
| 2036 | 2 | 11.76 | -6.47 | 0.05 – 3.94 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed56.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 61.7k | 66.5k | 57.6k | 59.8k – 63.6k |
| 2029 | 65.8k | 74.1k | 58.6k | 60.9k – 70.7k |
| 2031 | 69.9k | 80.6k | 60.6k | 62k – 77.8k |
| 2036 | 80.1k | 95.3k | 67k | 63.5k – 96.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.27(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.74 | 4.62 | 0.73 | 2.23 – 3.25 |
| 2029 | 2.11 | 5.36 | 0 | 1.21 – 3.01 |
| 2031 | 1.8 | 6 | 0 | 0.62 – 2.98 |
| 2036 | 1.55 | 7.5 | 0 | 0 – 3.26 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed93.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 96.12 | 103.02 | 88.15 | 93.14 – 99.1 |
| 2029 | 102.15 | 114.11 | 88.36 | 94.6 – 109.71 |
| 2031 | 108.19 | 123.63 | 90.38 | 95.91 – 120.48 |
| 2036 | 123.28 | 145.12 | 98.09 | 97.71 – 148.85 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.6 | 50.17 | 33.03 | 39.62 – 43.57 |
| 2028 | 42.65 | 57.49 | 27.81 | 38.33 – 46.97 |
| 2030 | 43.7 | 62.87 | 24.54 | 37.27 – 50.13 |
| 2035 | 46.34 | 73.44 | 19.24 | 34.78 – 57.9 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.6 | 10.22 | -3.5 | 2.07 – 5.12 |
| 2029 | 6.62 | 18.09 | -5 | 3.76 – 9.48 |
| 2031 | 9.65 | 24.45 | -5 | 5.6 – 13.7 |
| 2036 | 17.22 | 38.15 | -5 | 9.82 – 24.61 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.45 | 9.17 | -4.74 | 0.92 – 3.98 |
| 2029 | 2.31 | 13.94 | -5 | -0.38 – 5 |
| 2031 | 2.26 | 17.28 | -5 | -1.25 – 5.77 |
| 2036 | 2.23 | 23.47 | -5 | -2.83 – 7.3 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.24 | 22.51 | 20.13 | 20.58 – 21.9 |
| 2028 | 19.78 | 21.99 | 17.87 | 18.32 – 21.25 |
| 2030 | 18.33 | 21.18 | 15.86 | 16.25 – 20.41 |
| 2035 | 14.7 | 18.72 | 11.21 | 11.65 – 17.74 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.6m | 5.9m | 5.4m | 5.4m – 5.8m |
| 2029 | 5.6m | 5.8m | 5.3m | 5.2m – 6m |
| 2031 | 5.5m | 5.8m | 5.3m | 4.9m – 6.2m |
| 2036 | 5.5m | 5.7m | 5.2m | 4.3m – 6.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4 | 5.47 | -1.65 | 0.87 – 1.93 |
| 2028 | 2.72 | 9.77 | -2.57 | 1.71 – 3.73 |
| 2030 | 4.04 | 13.15 | -2.79 | 2.58 – 5.5 |
| 2035 | 7.34 | 15 | -2.31 | 4.56 – 10.13 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.1bn | 19.5bn | 14.8bn | 16.5bn – 17.7bn |
| 2028 | 19.2bn | 23.3bn | 15.1bn | 17.6bn – 20.7bn |
| 2030 | 21.3bn | 26.5bn | 16bn | 18.8bn – 23.8bn |
| 2035 | 26.5bn | 33.9bn | 19bn | 21bn – 31.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.54 | 1.89 | 1.19 | 1.46 – 1.62 |
| 2028 | 1.4 | 2.01 | 0.79 | 1.24 – 1.56 |
| 2030 | 1.33 | 2.12 | 0.55 | 1.11 – 1.56 |
| 2035 | 1.28 | 2.39 | 0.17 | 0.91 – 1.65 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.9bn | 27bn | 20.8bn | 23bn – 24.7bn |
| 2028 | 27.5bn | 32.9bn | 22.2bn | 25.4bn – 29.7bn |
| 2030 | 31.2bn | 38.1bn | 24.3bn | 27.6bn – 34.7bn |
| 2035 | 40.3bn | 50.1bn | 30.5bn | 32bn – 48.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.15 | 11.65 | 8.66 | 9.76 – 10.55 |
| 2029 | 11.26 | 13.85 | 8.67 | 10.32 – 12.2 |
| 2031 | 12.37 | 15.72 | 9.02 | 10.87 – 13.87 |
| 2036 | 15.14 | 19.87 | 10.41 | 11.99 – 18.29 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/FIN · API docs
