Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Fiji: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 35/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.47 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.30, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.22) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+2% skill vs naive; realized ±0.0671 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Fiji: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-12.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -9.27 | 1.19 | -19.72 | -11.55 – -6.98 |
| 2028 | -8.8 | 9.31 | -26.9 | -12.91 – -4.68 |
| 2030 | -8.33 | 15.05 | -30 | -13.76 – -2.89 |
| 2035 | -7.15 | 25.9 | -30 | -15.05 – 0.74 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.41(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 55.7 | 76.61 | 37.57 | 51.82 – 59.57 |
| 2027 | 58.27 | 94.5 | 26.88 | 50.3 – 66.25 |
| 2029 | 60.85 | 107.63 | 20.32 | 49.3 – 72.4 |
| 2034 | 67.3 | 133.45 | 9.98 | 47.08 – 87.52 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.4bn | 7.7bn | 5.4bn | 6.2bn – 6.7bn |
| 2028 | 7.1bn | 9.2bn | 5.2bn | 6.5bn – 7.7bn |
| 2030 | 7.7bn | 10.5bn | 5.3bn | 6.7bn – 8.6bn |
| 2035 | 9.2bn | 13.1bn | 5.8bn | 7.3bn – 11.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.47 | 12 | -10 | -1.64 – 6.57 |
| 2028 | 1.14 | 12 | -10 | -5.95 – 8.23 |
| 2030 | -0.19 | 12 | -10 | -9.35 – 8.98 |
| 2035 | -3.51 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 9.9 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.9k | 8.2k | 5.7k | 6.6k – 7.2k |
| 2028 | 7.5k | 9.8k | 5.5k | 6.8k – 8.1k |
| 2030 | 8.1k | 11.1k | 5.5k | 7.1k – 9.1k |
| 2035 | 9.6k | 13.8k | 5.9k | 7.6k – 11.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed82.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 84.09 | 100.21 | 65.49 | 80.26 – 87.91 |
| 2028 | 94.87 | 122.78 | 62.66 | 86.02 – 103.72 |
| 2030 | 105.65 | 141.68 | 64.06 | 91.65 – 119.64 |
| 2035 | 132.59 | 183.56 | 73.78 | 103.54 – 161.65 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64.56(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 66.88 | 83.69 | 50.07 | 63.24 – 70.52 |
| 2027 | 71.53 | 100.65 | 42.41 | 63.64 – 79.42 |
| 2029 | 76.18 | 113.77 | 38.58 | 64.33 – 88.02 |
| 2034 | 87.79 | 140.96 | 34.63 | 65.61 – 109.98 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-1.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.54 | 4.03 | -5 | -5 – -1.8 |
| 2028 | -5 | 8.1 | -5 | -5 – -1.86 |
| 2030 | -5 | 11.91 | -5 | -5 – -0.85 |
| 2035 | -5 | 18.91 | -5 | -5 – 1.1 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.09(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20.35 | 22.3 | 18.65 | 19.72 – 20.98 |
| 2027 | 21.03 | 24.42 | 18.09 | 19.47 – 22.59 |
| 2029 | 21.71 | 26.09 | 17.92 | 19.25 – 24.18 |
| 2034 | 23.42 | 29.6 | 18.06 | 18.56 – 28.28 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed933.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 932.1k | 976.1k | 891.2k | 903.2k – 961k |
| 2028 | 936.9k | 981.2k | 895.8k | 867.6k – 1m |
| 2030 | 941.7k | 986.2k | 900.4k | 834.8k – 1m |
| 2035 | 953.7k | 998.8k | 911.9k | 755.9k – 1.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.34 | 15 | -10 | -1.26 – 3.95 |
| 2028 | -0.63 | 15 | -10 | -5.16 – 3.89 |
| 2030 | -2.61 | 15 | -10 | -8.6 – 3.37 |
| 2035 | -7.56 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 1.82 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.7bn | 2bn | 1.4bn | 1.6bn – 1.8bn |
| 2028 | 1.8bn | 2.3bn | 1.4bn | 1.7bn – 2bn |
| 2030 | 2bn | 2.6bn | 1.3bn | 1.7bn – 2.2bn |
| 2035 | 2.3bn | 3.1bn | 1.4bn | 1.8bn – 2.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.44(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.47 | 6.91 | 2.02 | 4.02 – 4.91 |
| 2027 | 4.5 | 8.74 | 0.26 | 3.63 – 5.36 |
| 2029 | 4.51 | 9.98 | 0 | 3.31 – 5.71 |
| 2034 | 4.52 | 12.26 | 0 | 2.61 – 6.43 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.7bn | 2bn | 1.4bn | 1.6bn – 1.8bn |
| 2028 | 1.8bn | 2.3bn | 1.4bn | 1.7bn – 2bn |
| 2030 | 2bn | 2.6bn | 1.4bn | 1.7bn – 2.2bn |
| 2035 | 2.3bn | 3.2bn | 1.4bn | 1.8bn – 2.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4 | 5.66 | 5.13 | 5.23 – 5.57 |
| 2028 | 5.5 | 5.85 | 5.15 | 5.09 – 5.91 |
| 2030 | 5.6 | 6.06 | 5.15 | 4.97 – 6.24 |
| 2035 | 5.86 | 6.5 | 5.22 | 4.64 – 7.07 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/FJI · API docs
