Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
France: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 54/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 22 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.5 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.08, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.12) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-07-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-13% skill vs naive; realized ±4.6377 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
France: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.28 | 2.82 | -3.37 | -0.92 – 0.37 |
| 2029 | -0.23 | 5.13 | -5.59 | -1.37 – 0.91 |
| 2031 | -0.18 | 6.74 | -7.1 | -1.67 – 1.31 |
| 2036 | -0.06 | 9.73 | -9.85 | -2.22 – 2.1 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.77 | 39.9 | 28.45 | 32.35 – 35.18 |
| 2028 | 34.51 | 45.14 | 25.3 | 31.34 – 37.69 |
| 2030 | 35.26 | 48.99 | 23.36 | 30.48 – 40.04 |
| 2035 | 37.12 | 56.54 | 20.3 | 28.41 – 45.84 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.7T | 4.1T | 3.4T | 3.6T – 3.8T |
| 2029 | 4T | 4.7T | 3.5T | 3.7T – 4.3T |
| 2031 | 4.4T | 5.2T | 3.7T | 3.9T – 4.9T |
| 2036 | 5.2T | 6.3T | 4.2T | 4.1T – 6.2T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.5 | 3.76 | -2.32 | -0.06 – 1.06 |
| 2029 | -0.45 | 5.18 | -5.34 | -1.44 – 0.53 |
| 2031 | -1.41 | 5.87 | -7.72 | -2.74 – -0.09 |
| 2036 | -3.8 | 6.49 | -10 | -6.13 – -1.48 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 53.8k | 59k | 49.2k | 52.1k – 55.4k |
| 2029 | 58.1k | 67.2k | 50.2k | 53.8k – 62.4k |
| 2031 | 62.4k | 74.2k | 52.2k | 55.3k – 69.5k |
| 2036 | 73.2k | 89.8k | 58.8k | 58k – 88.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.68(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.08 | 4.84 | 1.19 | 2.59 – 3.56 |
| 2029 | 2.36 | 5.41 | 0 | 1.49 – 3.22 |
| 2031 | 2 | 5.94 | 0 | 0.87 – 3.13 |
| 2036 | 1.72 | 7.29 | 0 | 0.07 – 3.37 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed118.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 120.56 | 130.58 | 109 | 116.82 – 124.3 |
| 2029 | 124.88 | 142.23 | 104.87 | 115.64 – 134.12 |
| 2031 | 129.21 | 151.6 | 103.36 | 114.54 – 143.88 |
| 2036 | 140.01 | 171.68 | 103.47 | 110.97 – 169.06 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.12 | 40.61 | 27.64 | 32.59 – 35.66 |
| 2028 | 34.78 | 46.01 | 23.54 | 31.39 – 38.16 |
| 2030 | 35.43 | 49.92 | 20.93 | 30.37 – 40.48 |
| 2035 | 37.05 | 57.56 | 16.55 | 27.98 – 46.12 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.31 | 6.67 | -2.36 | 1.31 – 3.31 |
| 2029 | 3.51 | 11.06 | -4.58 | 1.67 – 5.35 |
| 2031 | 4.71 | 14.46 | -5 | 2.17 – 7.24 |
| 2036 | 7.7 | 21.49 | -5 | 3.41 – 11.99 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.39 | 6.76 | -2.28 | 1.39 – 3.4 |
| 2029 | 2.38 | 9.94 | -5 | 0.59 – 4.17 |
| 2031 | 2.38 | 12.14 | -5 | 0.03 – 4.73 |
| 2036 | 2.38 | 16.18 | -5 | -1.06 – 5.82 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.78 | 23 | 20.72 | 21.1 – 22.45 |
| 2028 | 21.22 | 23.33 | 19.39 | 19.65 – 22.79 |
| 2030 | 20.66 | 23.39 | 18.3 | 18.31 – 23.01 |
| 2035 | 19.26 | 23.12 | 15.92 | 15.27 – 23.26 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed68.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 69m | 72.3m | 66m | 66.9m – 71.1m |
| 2029 | 69.4m | 72.6m | 66.3m | 64.2m – 74.5m |
| 2031 | 69.7m | 73m | 66.7m | 61.8m – 77.6m |
| 2036 | 70.6m | 74m | 67.5m | 56m – 85.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.19 | 14.17 | -8.55 | -0.45 – 2.83 |
| 2028 | 1.7 | 15 | -10 | -1.2 – 4.59 |
| 2030 | 2.2 | 15 | -10 | -1.6 – 6.01 |
| 2035 | 3.47 | 15 | -10 | -2.22 – 9.16 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed86bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 84bn | 109.3bn | 58.8bn | 78.8bn – 89.2bn |
| 2028 | 80.5bn | 124.3bn | 36.8bn | 70bn – 91.1bn |
| 2030 | 77.1bn | 133.5bn | 20.6bn | 62.3bn – 91.9bn |
| 2035 | 68.4bn | 148.2bn | 0 | 45.2bn – 91.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.12 | 4.04 | 2.21 | 2.93 – 3.31 |
| 2028 | 2.73 | 4.32 | 1.15 | 2.36 – 3.11 |
| 2030 | 2.54 | 4.59 | 0.5 | 2.03 – 3.06 |
| 2035 | 2.39 | 5.28 | 0 | 1.56 – 3.21 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed428.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 464.8bn | 556.3bn | 373.3bn | 443.4bn – 486.3bn |
| 2028 | 559.1bn | 717.7bn | 400.6bn | 508bn – 610.2bn |
| 2030 | 653.4bn | 858.1bn | 448.7bn | 569.8bn – 737bn |
| 2035 | 889.2bn | 1.2T | 599.7bn | 702.6bn – 1.1T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.93 | 8.53 | 7.32 | 7.68 – 8.17 |
| 2029 | 7.98 | 9.03 | 6.93 | 7.39 – 8.57 |
| 2031 | 8.03 | 9.38 | 6.68 | 7.12 – 8.94 |
| 2036 | 8.16 | 10.08 | 6.25 | 6.47 – 9.86 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/FRA · API docs
