Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
France: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 55/100); the economy is in slowdown; 23 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.91 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.10, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.00) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-13% skill vs naive; realized ±0.0113 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
France: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.39 | 2.86 | -3.63 | -1.06 – 0.29 |
| 2028 | -0.36 | 5.27 | -5.98 | -1.55 – 0.84 |
| 2030 | -0.33 | 6.94 | -7.59 | -1.89 – 1.23 |
| 2035 | -0.26 | 10.02 | -10.53 | -2.51 – 2 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.77 | 39.9 | 28.45 | 32.35 – 35.18 |
| 2028 | 34.51 | 45.14 | 25.3 | 31.34 – 37.69 |
| 2030 | 35.26 | 48.99 | 23.36 | 30.48 – 40.04 |
| 2035 | 37.12 | 56.54 | 20.3 | 28.41 – 45.84 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.5T | 3.9T | 3.2T | 3.4T – 3.6T |
| 2028 | 3.8T | 4.4T | 3.2T | 3.5T – 4.1T |
| 2030 | 4.1T | 4.9T | 3.4T | 3.6T – 4.5T |
| 2035 | 4.8T | 5.9T | 3.8T | 3.8T – 5.8T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.91 | 12 | -10 | -1.38 – 3.2 |
| 2028 | 1.04 | 12 | -10 | -2.94 – 5.03 |
| 2030 | 1.17 | 12 | -10 | -4 – 6.34 |
| 2035 | 1.49 | 12 | -10 | -5.93 – 8.92 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50.6k | 56k | 45.9k | 49k – 52.1k |
| 2028 | 54.5k | 63.9k | 46.3k | 50.4k – 58.5k |
| 2030 | 58.4k | 70.5k | 47.9k | 51.7k – 65k |
| 2035 | 68.1k | 85.3k | 53.3k | 54k – 82.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.31 | 5.06 | 1.43 | 2.82 – 3.79 |
| 2029 | 2.49 | 5.53 | 0 | 1.62 – 3.35 |
| 2031 | 2.08 | 6.01 | 0 | 0.95 – 3.22 |
| 2036 | 1.76 | 7.31 | 0 | 0.11 – 3.41 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed118.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 118.15 | 128.2 | 106.56 | 114.49 – 121.81 |
| 2028 | 122.45 | 139.86 | 102.37 | 113.39 – 131.51 |
| 2030 | 126.75 | 149.22 | 100.83 | 112.36 – 141.15 |
| 2035 | 137.51 | 169.29 | 100.84 | 108.99 – 166.03 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.12 | 40.61 | 27.64 | 32.59 – 35.66 |
| 2028 | 34.78 | 46.01 | 23.54 | 31.39 – 38.16 |
| 2030 | 35.43 | 49.92 | 20.93 | 30.37 – 40.48 |
| 2035 | 37.05 | 57.56 | 16.55 | 27.98 – 46.12 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.76 | 5.17 | -3.97 | -0.24 – 1.75 |
| 2028 | -0.72 | 6.93 | -5 | -2.46 – 1.02 |
| 2030 | -2.2 | 7.68 | -5 | -4.56 – 0.17 |
| 2035 | -5 | 8.96 | -5 | -5 – -1.1 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.52 | 6.92 | -2.19 | 1.5 – 3.54 |
| 2029 | 2.44 | 10.06 | -5 | 0.64 – 4.25 |
| 2031 | 2.42 | 12.25 | -5 | 0.04 – 4.79 |
| 2036 | 2.4 | 16.31 | -5 | -1.07 – 5.87 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.78 | 23 | 20.72 | 21.1 – 22.45 |
| 2028 | 21.22 | 23.33 | 19.39 | 19.65 – 22.79 |
| 2030 | 20.66 | 23.39 | 18.3 | 18.31 – 23.01 |
| 2035 | 19.26 | 23.12 | 15.92 | 15.27 – 23.26 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed68.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 68.7m | 71.9m | 65.6m | 66.5m – 70.8m |
| 2028 | 68.8m | 72.1m | 65.8m | 63.8m – 73.9m |
| 2030 | 69m | 72.3m | 66m | 61.2m – 76.9m |
| 2035 | 69.5m | 72.8m | 66.4m | 55.1m – 83.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.19 | 14.17 | -8.55 | -0.45 – 2.83 |
| 2028 | 1.7 | 15 | -10 | -1.2 – 4.59 |
| 2030 | 2.2 | 15 | -10 | -1.6 – 6.01 |
| 2035 | 3.47 | 15 | -10 | -2.22 – 9.16 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed86bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 84bn | 109.3bn | 58.8bn | 78.8bn – 89.2bn |
| 2028 | 80.5bn | 124.3bn | 36.8bn | 70bn – 91.1bn |
| 2030 | 77.1bn | 133.5bn | 20.6bn | 62.3bn – 91.9bn |
| 2035 | 68.4bn | 148.2bn | 0 | 45.2bn – 91.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.12 | 4.04 | 2.21 | 2.93 – 3.31 |
| 2028 | 2.73 | 4.32 | 1.15 | 2.36 – 3.11 |
| 2030 | 2.54 | 4.59 | 0.5 | 2.03 – 3.06 |
| 2035 | 2.39 | 5.28 | 0 | 1.56 – 3.21 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed428.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 464.8bn | 556.3bn | 373.3bn | 443.4bn – 486.3bn |
| 2028 | 559.1bn | 717.7bn | 400.6bn | 508bn – 610.2bn |
| 2030 | 653.4bn | 858.1bn | 448.7bn | 569.8bn – 737bn |
| 2035 | 889.2bn | 1.2T | 599.7bn | 702.6bn – 1.1T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.44 | 7.93 | 6.94 | 7.21 – 7.67 |
| 2028 | 7.22 | 8.09 | 6.36 | 6.69 – 7.76 |
| 2030 | 7.01 | 8.13 | 5.9 | 6.22 – 7.81 |
| 2035 | 6.48 | 8.06 | 4.9 | 5.14 – 7.82 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/FRA · API docs
