Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Gabon: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 53/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.54 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.06, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment -0.08) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2015-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-15% skill vs naive; realized ±4.1968 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Gabon: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2016, 2018, 2020, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-4.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -5.32 | 2.77 | -13.41 | -7.06 – -3.59 |
| 2029 | -7.37 | 6.64 | -21.38 | -10.58 – -4.16 |
| 2031 | -9.41 | 8.67 | -27.5 | -13.86 – -4.97 |
| 2036 | -14.53 | 11.05 | -30 | -22.07 – -6.98 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 57.03 | 71.73 | 44.29 | 54.02 – 60.04 |
| 2028 | 60.1 | 85.56 | 38.04 | 53.58 – 66.63 |
| 2030 | 63.18 | 96.04 | 34.7 | 53.43 – 72.93 |
| 2035 | 70.86 | 117.34 | 30.59 | 52.89 – 88.84 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 24.3bn | 28bn | 21.1bn | 23.4bn – 25.1bn |
| 2029 | 26.5bn | 32.9bn | 21bn | 24.5bn – 28.5bn |
| 2031 | 28.8bn | 37bn | 21.6bn | 25.5bn – 32bn |
| 2036 | 34.4bn | 46bn | 24.3bn | 27.3bn – 41.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.47(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.54 | 4.49 | 0.84 | 2.17 – 2.9 |
| 2029 | 2.22 | 5.61 | -0.71 | 1.55 – 2.9 |
| 2031 | 1.91 | 6.28 | -1.88 | 1.03 – 2.79 |
| 2036 | 1.13 | 7.31 | -4.23 | -0.08 – 2.34 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.3k | 12.2k | 8.7k | 9.9k – 10.7k |
| 2029 | 11.3k | 14.6k | 8.5k | 10.4k – 12.2k |
| 2031 | 12.3k | 16.5k | 8.6k | 10.8k – 13.8k |
| 2036 | 14.8k | 20.7k | 9.6k | 11.7k – 17.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed86.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 88.14 | 105.09 | 68.57 | 84.12 – 92.16 |
| 2029 | 92.21 | 121.58 | 58.32 | 83.26 – 101.15 |
| 2031 | 96.28 | 134.2 | 52.53 | 82.75 – 109.82 |
| 2036 | 106.46 | 160.09 | 44.59 | 81.18 – 131.75 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.47 | 33.09 | 27.84 | 29.52 – 31.41 |
| 2028 | 32.61 | 37.15 | 28.06 | 30.19 – 35.02 |
| 2030 | 34.74 | 40.61 | 28.88 | 30.8 – 38.69 |
| 2035 | 40.09 | 48.38 | 31.79 | 31.77 – 48.4 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.8 | 6.52 | -1.18 | 1.93 – 3.67 |
| 2029 | 3.83 | 10.27 | -3.07 | 2.22 – 5.44 |
| 2031 | 4.85 | 13.17 | -4.05 | 2.62 – 7.08 |
| 2036 | 7.42 | 19.17 | -5 | 3.62 – 11.21 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.08 | 31.82 | 21.11 | 24.84 – 27.32 |
| 2028 | 29.3 | 39.23 | 20.69 | 26.47 – 32.12 |
| 2030 | 32.51 | 45.34 | 21.4 | 28.08 – 36.95 |
| 2035 | 40.56 | 58.7 | 24.83 | 31.48 – 49.64 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.3m | 2.5m | 2.2m | 2.2m – 2.4m |
| 2029 | 2.1m | 2.4m | 1.8m | 1.9m – 2.2m |
| 2031 | 1.8m | 2.2m | 1.4m | 1.6m – 2m |
| 2036 | 1.1m | 1.7m | 629.9k | 902.4k – 1.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6 | 11.19 | -5.6 | 0.37 – 2.82 |
| 2028 | 3.83 | 15 | -8.63 | 1.57 – 6.09 |
| 2030 | 6.07 | 15 | -10 | 2.9 – 9.23 |
| 2035 | 11.65 | 15 | -10 | 5.99 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed638.8m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 548.8m | 1.2bn | 0 | 439.4m – 658.3m |
| 2027 | 297.8m | 1.4bn | 0 | 109.1m – 486.4m |
| 2029 | 46.7m | 1.5bn | 0 | 0 – 275.5m |
| 2034 | 0 | 2.1bn | 0 | 0 – 318.4m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.25(2015)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 4.12 | 5.55 | 2.68 | 3.83 – 4.4 |
| 2018 | 3.96 | 6.44 | 1.48 | 3.39 – 4.53 |
| 2020 | 3.89 | 7.09 | 0.68 | 3.08 – 4.69 |
| 2025 | 3.83 | 8.36 | 0 | 2.52 – 5.13 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed638.8m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 548.8m | 1.2bn | 0 | 439.4m – 658.3m |
| 2027 | 297.8m | 1.4bn | 0 | 109.1m – 486.4m |
| 2029 | 46.7m | 1.5bn | 0 | 0 – 275.5m |
| 2034 | 0 | 2.1bn | 0 | 0 – 318.4m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.89 | 20.87 | 18.92 | 19.28 – 20.51 |
| 2028 | 19.37 | 20.54 | 18.19 | 17.93 – 20.8 |
| 2030 | 18.84 | 20.36 | 17.32 | 16.7 – 20.98 |
| 2035 | 17.53 | 19.68 | 15.38 | 13.89 – 21.17 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/GAB · API docs
