Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Gabon: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 55/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.74 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.10, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.00) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2015-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-15% skill vs naive; realized ±0.0369 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Gabon: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2016, 2018, 2020, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-4.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.93 | 4.2 | -12.06 | -5.65 – -2.21 |
| 2028 | -5.6 | 8.49 | -19.68 | -8.74 – -2.45 |
| 2030 | -7.26 | 10.92 | -25.44 | -11.55 – -2.97 |
| 2035 | -11.42 | 14.29 | -30 | -18.5 – -4.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 57.03 | 71.73 | 44.29 | 54.02 – 60.04 |
| 2028 | 60.1 | 85.56 | 38.04 | 53.58 – 66.63 |
| 2030 | 63.18 | 96.04 | 34.7 | 53.43 – 72.93 |
| 2035 | 70.86 | 117.34 | 30.59 | 52.89 – 88.84 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.8bn | 25.5bn | 18.7bn | 21.1bn – 22.6bn |
| 2028 | 23bn | 29.3bn | 17.6bn | 21.2bn – 24.9bn |
| 2030 | 24.2bn | 32.3bn | 17.1bn | 21.3bn – 27.1bn |
| 2035 | 27.1bn | 38.5bn | 17.1bn | 21.4bn – 32.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.47(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.74 | 5.96 | -0.06 | 2.16 – 3.32 |
| 2028 | 3.34 | 8.92 | -1.5 | 2.25 – 4.43 |
| 2030 | 3.94 | 11.15 | -2.31 | 2.42 – 5.46 |
| 2035 | 5.44 | 12 | -3.4 | 2.87 – 8.01 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.3k | 9.8k | 7k | 8k – 8.6k |
| 2028 | 8.4k | 11.1k | 6.1k | 7.7k – 9.1k |
| 2030 | 8.5k | 12k | 5.6k | 7.4k – 9.6k |
| 2035 | 8.8k | 13.7k | 4.6k | 6.8k – 10.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed86.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 80.32 | 97.14 | 60.91 | 76.45 – 84.19 |
| 2028 | 83.16 | 112.3 | 49.55 | 74.69 – 91.64 |
| 2030 | 86 | 123.62 | 42.6 | 73.34 – 98.67 |
| 2035 | 93.11 | 146.3 | 31.73 | 70.03 – 116.19 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.47 | 33.09 | 27.84 | 29.52 – 31.41 |
| 2028 | 32.61 | 37.15 | 28.06 | 30.19 – 35.02 |
| 2030 | 34.74 | 40.61 | 28.88 | 30.8 – 38.69 |
| 2035 | 40.09 | 48.38 | 31.79 | 31.77 – 48.4 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.22 | 5.92 | -1.75 | 1.36 – 3.08 |
| 2028 | 3.05 | 9.47 | -3.83 | 1.48 – 4.62 |
| 2030 | 3.88 | 12.17 | -5 | 1.73 – 6.03 |
| 2035 | 5.96 | 17.69 | -5 | 2.41 – 9.52 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.08 | 31.82 | 21.11 | 24.84 – 27.32 |
| 2028 | 29.3 | 39.23 | 20.69 | 26.47 – 32.12 |
| 2030 | 32.51 | 45.34 | 21.4 | 28.08 – 36.95 |
| 2035 | 40.56 | 58.7 | 24.83 | 31.48 – 49.64 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.6m | 2.7m | 2.5m | 2.5m – 2.7m |
| 2028 | 2.6m | 2.8m | 2.5m | 2.4m – 2.8m |
| 2030 | 2.7m | 2.8m | 2.6m | 2.4m – 3m |
| 2035 | 2.8m | 3m | 2.7m | 2.3m – 3.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6 | 11.19 | -5.6 | 0.37 – 2.82 |
| 2028 | 3.83 | 15 | -8.63 | 1.57 – 6.09 |
| 2030 | 6.07 | 15 | -10 | 2.9 – 9.23 |
| 2035 | 11.65 | 15 | -10 | 5.99 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed638.8m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 548.8m | 1.2bn | 0 | 439.4m – 658.3m |
| 2027 | 297.8m | 1.4bn | 0 | 109.1m – 486.4m |
| 2029 | 46.7m | 1.5bn | 0 | 0 – 275.5m |
| 2034 | 0 | 2.1bn | 0 | 0 – 318.4m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.25(2015)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 4.12 | 5.55 | 2.68 | 3.83 – 4.4 |
| 2018 | 3.96 | 6.44 | 1.48 | 3.39 – 4.53 |
| 2020 | 3.89 | 7.09 | 0.68 | 3.08 – 4.69 |
| 2025 | 3.83 | 8.36 | 0 | 2.52 – 5.13 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed638.8m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 548.8m | 1.2bn | 0 | 439.4m – 658.3m |
| 2027 | 297.8m | 1.4bn | 0 | 109.1m – 486.4m |
| 2029 | 46.7m | 1.5bn | 0 | 0 – 275.5m |
| 2034 | 0 | 2.1bn | 0 | 0 – 318.4m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.89 | 20.87 | 18.92 | 19.28 – 20.51 |
| 2028 | 19.37 | 20.54 | 18.19 | 17.93 – 20.8 |
| 2030 | 18.84 | 20.36 | 17.32 | 16.7 – 20.98 |
| 2035 | 17.53 | 19.68 | 15.38 | 13.89 – 21.17 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/GAB · API docs
