Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
United Kingdom: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 58/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 20 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.3 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.16, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.10) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-4% skill vs naive; realized ±5.8998 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
United Kingdom: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.6 | -1.49 | -5.71 | -4.09 – -3.11 |
| 2029 | -3.99 | -0.34 | -7.64 | -4.93 – -3.06 |
| 2031 | -4.39 | 0.32 | -9.1 | -5.7 – -3.08 |
| 2036 | -5.38 | 1.29 | -12.04 | -7.6 – -3.16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.57 | 35.08 | 26.65 | 29.43 – 31.7 |
| 2028 | 30.51 | 38.33 | 23.73 | 27.93 – 33.09 |
| 2030 | 30.46 | 40.55 | 21.7 | 26.58 – 34.33 |
| 2035 | 30.31 | 44.6 | 17.94 | 23.42 – 37.2 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.5T | 4.9T | 4.1T | 4.3T – 4.6T |
| 2029 | 5T | 5.7T | 4.4T | 4.6T – 5.3T |
| 2031 | 5.5T | 6.4T | 4.7T | 4.9T – 6.1T |
| 2036 | 6.8T | 8.1T | 5.6T | 5.4T – 8.2T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.3 | 4.94 | -3.72 | -0.49 – 1.09 |
| 2029 | -0.94 | 7.09 | -7.91 | -2.33 – 0.44 |
| 2031 | -2.19 | 8.19 | -10 | -4.09 – -0.28 |
| 2036 | -5.29 | 9.38 | -10 | -8.58 – -2 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 63.7k | 69.7k | 58.5k | 61.7k – 65.7k |
| 2029 | 70.4k | 80.8k | 61.3k | 65.1k – 75.6k |
| 2031 | 77k | 90.5k | 65.3k | 68.3k – 85.8k |
| 2036 | 93.7k | 112.7k | 77.1k | 74.2k – 113.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed103.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 105.57 | 117.86 | 91.4 | 102 – 109.15 |
| 2029 | 109.52 | 130.8 | 84.98 | 100.99 – 118.05 |
| 2031 | 113.47 | 140.94 | 81.78 | 100.17 – 126.78 |
| 2036 | 123.35 | 162.19 | 78.53 | 97.63 – 149.06 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.89 | 37.41 | 26.37 | 30.54 – 33.25 |
| 2028 | 31.95 | 41.51 | 22.39 | 28.95 – 34.95 |
| 2030 | 32.01 | 44.35 | 19.67 | 27.56 – 36.46 |
| 2035 | 32.16 | 49.62 | 14.71 | 24.35 – 39.98 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.96 | 8.96 | -3.46 | 1.59 – 4.34 |
| 2029 | 2.01 | 12.39 | -5 | -0.39 – 4.41 |
| 2031 | 1.05 | 14.46 | -5 | -2.01 – 4.11 |
| 2036 | -1.34 | 17.62 | -5 | -5 – 3.08 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.86 | 19.85 | 18 | 18.27 – 19.44 |
| 2028 | 18.82 | 20.06 | 17.75 | 17.43 – 20.22 |
| 2030 | 18.79 | 20.39 | 17.41 | 16.66 – 20.93 |
| 2035 | 18.71 | 20.97 | 16.75 | 14.83 – 22.59 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed69.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 69.7m | 73m | 66.7m | 67.6m – 71.9m |
| 2029 | 70.1m | 73.4m | 67m | 64.9m – 75.3m |
| 2031 | 70.5m | 73.9m | 67.4m | 62.5m – 78.5m |
| 2036 | 71.5m | 74.9m | 68.4m | 56.7m – 86.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.55 | 15 | -10 | -1.05 – 4.16 |
| 2028 | 1.72 | 15 | -10 | -2.84 – 6.27 |
| 2030 | 1.88 | 15 | -10 | -4.04 – 7.81 |
| 2035 | 2.3 | 15 | -10 | -6.23 – 10.83 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed170.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 171.9bn | 196.5bn | 147.4bn | 165.4bn – 178.4bn |
| 2028 | 175.3bn | 217.8bn | 132.8bn | 160.4bn – 190.3bn |
| 2030 | 178.7bn | 233.6bn | 123.9bn | 156bn – 201.4bn |
| 2035 | 187.3bn | 264.9bn | 109.7bn | 145.4bn – 229.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.44 | 1.93 | 0.95 | 1.34 – 1.54 |
| 2028 | 1.5 | 2.35 | 0.66 | 1.3 – 1.71 |
| 2030 | 1.54 | 2.63 | 0.44 | 1.25 – 1.83 |
| 2035 | 1.56 | 3.11 | 0.01 | 1.07 – 2.05 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed214.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 220.4bn | 252.7bn | 188.1bn | 211.9bn – 228.9bn |
| 2028 | 236.3bn | 292.2bn | 180.3bn | 216.4bn – 256.2bn |
| 2030 | 252.1bn | 324.4bn | 179.8bn | 220.9bn – 283.4bn |
| 2035 | 291.8bn | 394bn | 189.6bn | 229.4bn – 354.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.8 | 7.08 | 4.51 | 5.51 – 6.09 |
| 2029 | 6.2 | 8.42 | 3.97 | 5.56 – 6.83 |
| 2031 | 6.59 | 9.47 | 3.72 | 5.63 – 7.56 |
| 2036 | 7.59 | 11.65 | 3.52 | 5.75 – 9.42 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/GBR · API docs
