Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
United Kingdom: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 54/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 22 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.04 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.08, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.00) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-09-16
Bank of England IADB (Bank Rate)
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-4% skill vs naive; realized ±1.241 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
United Kingdom: forward projections across 16 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.13 | -0.84 | -5.41 | -3.64 – -2.61 |
| 2028 | -3.18 | 0.78 | -7.13 | -4.13 – -2.22 |
| 2030 | -3.23 | 1.88 | -8.33 | -4.53 – -1.92 |
| 2035 | -3.35 | 3.87 | -10.57 | -5.36 – -1.34 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.57 | 35.08 | 26.65 | 29.43 – 31.7 |
| 2028 | 30.51 | 38.33 | 23.73 | 27.93 – 33.09 |
| 2030 | 30.46 | 40.55 | 21.7 | 26.58 – 34.33 |
| 2035 | 30.31 | 44.6 | 17.94 | 23.42 – 37.2 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.2T | 4.6T | 3.8T | 4.1T – 4.3T |
| 2028 | 4.6T | 5.4T | 4T | 4.3T – 5T |
| 2030 | 5.1T | 6.1T | 4.3T | 4.5T – 5.7T |
| 2035 | 6.3T | 7.6T | 5.1T | 5T – 7.6T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.04 | 12 | -10 | -0.94 – 5.02 |
| 2028 | 3.38 | 12 | -10 | -1.89 – 8.66 |
| 2030 | 4.72 | 12 | -10 | -2.25 – 11.7 |
| 2035 | 8.08 | 12 | -10 | -2.55 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 59.9k | 66.3k | 54.4k | 58k – 61.8k |
| 2028 | 65.7k | 76.7k | 56.2k | 60.9k – 70.6k |
| 2030 | 71.5k | 85.8k | 59.2k | 63.4k – 79.7k |
| 2035 | 86.1k | 106.2k | 68.7k | 68.2k – 104k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed103.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 104.33 | 116.74 | 90 | 100.75 – 107.91 |
| 2028 | 108.38 | 129.88 | 83.57 | 99.87 – 116.89 |
| 2030 | 112.44 | 140.19 | 80.41 | 99.17 – 125.7 |
| 2035 | 122.57 | 161.83 | 77.28 | 96.92 – 148.22 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.89 | 37.41 | 26.37 | 30.54 – 33.25 |
| 2028 | 31.95 | 41.51 | 22.39 | 28.95 – 34.95 |
| 2030 | 32.01 | 44.35 | 19.67 | 27.56 – 36.46 |
| 2035 | 32.16 | 49.62 | 14.71 | 24.35 – 39.98 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.43 | 10.44 | -2.02 | 3.02 – 5.83 |
| 2028 | 5.28 | 15.7 | -5 | 2.72 – 7.85 |
| 2030 | 6.14 | 19.59 | -5 | 2.67 – 9.61 |
| 2035 | 8.28 | 27.31 | -5 | 2.74 – 13.82 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.86 | 19.85 | 18 | 18.27 – 19.44 |
| 2028 | 18.82 | 20.06 | 17.75 | 17.43 – 20.22 |
| 2030 | 18.79 | 20.39 | 17.41 | 16.66 – 20.93 |
| 2035 | 18.71 | 20.97 | 16.75 | 14.83 – 22.59 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.75(2026)· Bank of England IADB (Bank Rate)
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.33 | 5.88 | 0.59 | 2.64 – 4.01 |
| 2029 | 2.82 | 7.24 | -1.91 | 1.6 – 4.04 |
| 2031 | 2.57 | 8.28 | -2 | 0.96 – 4.18 |
| 2036 | 2.37 | 10.44 | -2 | 0.01 – 4.74 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed69.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 69.2m | 72.5m | 66.2m | 67.1m – 71.4m |
| 2028 | 69.5m | 72.7m | 66.4m | 64.3m – 74.6m |
| 2030 | 69.7m | 73m | 66.6m | 61.8m – 77.6m |
| 2035 | 70.3m | 73.6m | 67.2m | 55.7m – 84.8m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.55 | 15 | -10 | -1.05 – 4.16 |
| 2028 | 1.72 | 15 | -10 | -2.84 – 6.27 |
| 2030 | 1.88 | 15 | -10 | -4.04 – 7.81 |
| 2035 | 2.3 | 15 | -10 | -6.23 – 10.83 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed170.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 171.9bn | 196.5bn | 147.4bn | 165.4bn – 178.4bn |
| 2028 | 175.3bn | 217.8bn | 132.8bn | 160.4bn – 190.3bn |
| 2030 | 178.7bn | 233.6bn | 123.9bn | 156bn – 201.4bn |
| 2035 | 187.3bn | 264.9bn | 109.7bn | 145.4bn – 229.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.44 | 1.93 | 0.95 | 1.34 – 1.54 |
| 2028 | 1.5 | 2.35 | 0.66 | 1.3 – 1.71 |
| 2030 | 1.54 | 2.63 | 0.44 | 1.25 – 1.83 |
| 2035 | 1.56 | 3.11 | 0.01 | 1.07 – 2.05 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed214.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 220.4bn | 252.7bn | 188.1bn | 211.9bn – 228.9bn |
| 2028 | 236.3bn | 292.2bn | 180.3bn | 216.4bn – 256.2bn |
| 2030 | 252.1bn | 324.4bn | 179.8bn | 220.9bn – 283.4bn |
| 2035 | 291.8bn | 394bn | 189.6bn | 229.4bn – 354.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.75 | 5.88 | 3.62 | 4.5 – 5 |
| 2028 | 4.76 | 6.72 | 2.8 | 4.23 – 5.28 |
| 2030 | 4.76 | 7.29 | 2.23 | 3.99 – 5.53 |
| 2035 | 4.78 | 8.36 | 1.2 | 3.47 – 6.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/GBR · API docs
