Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Georgia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 49/100); the economy is in slowdown; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.75 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.02, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.10) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+3% skill vs naive; realized ±5.8121 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Georgia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -4.17 | 3.03 | -11.36 | -5.7 – -2.63 |
| 2029 | -2.5 | 9.96 | -14.97 | -5.17 – 0.16 |
| 2031 | -0.84 | 15.25 | -16.93 | -4.2 – 2.52 |
| 2036 | 3.32 | 26.07 | -19.43 | -1.85 – 8.5 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.39 | 64.51 | 32.55 | 44.18 – 50.59 |
| 2028 | 47.35 | 77.01 | 21.64 | 40.84 – 53.86 |
| 2030 | 47.31 | 85.6 | 14.13 | 38.06 – 56.57 |
| 2035 | 47.22 | 101.37 | 0.29 | 31.93 – 62.51 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 45.8bn | 50.9bn | 41.5bn | 44.4bn – 47.2bn |
| 2029 | 53.8bn | 62.5bn | 46.3bn | 49.8bn – 57.8bn |
| 2031 | 61.8bn | 73.1bn | 52.1bn | 54.8bn – 68.8bn |
| 2036 | 81.8bn | 97.7bn | 68bn | 64.8bn – 98.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.75 | 7.64 | 0.38 | 3.04 – 4.46 |
| 2029 | 0.27 | 7.01 | -5.58 | -0.91 – 1.44 |
| 2031 | -3.22 | 5.48 | -10 | -4.93 – -1.51 |
| 2036 | -10 | 2.31 | -10 | -10 – -6.35 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 12.4k | 13.9k | 11k | 12k – 12.8k |
| 2029 | 14.5k | 17.2k | 12.2k | 13.4k – 15.5k |
| 2031 | 16.6k | 20k | 13.6k | 14.7k – 18.5k |
| 2036 | 21.9k | 26.7k | 17.6k | 17.3k – 26.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 34.16 | 49.11 | 16.91 | 31.31 – 37.01 |
| 2029 | 32.28 | 58.18 | 2.4 | 26.75 – 37.82 |
| 2031 | 30.4 | 63.84 | 0 | 22.83 – 37.98 |
| 2036 | 25.71 | 72.99 | 0 | 14.32 – 37.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.28 | 60.05 | 44.52 | 50.26 – 54.31 |
| 2028 | 50.41 | 63.86 | 36.95 | 45.93 – 54.88 |
| 2030 | 48.53 | 65.9 | 31.16 | 41.99 – 55.07 |
| 2035 | 43.83 | 68.4 | 19.27 | 33.06 – 54.61 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.47 | 13.48 | -5 | 2.4 – 6.54 |
| 2029 | 5.21 | 20.82 | -5 | 1.51 – 8.92 |
| 2031 | 5.96 | 26.1 | -5 | 1.02 – 10.9 |
| 2036 | 7.82 | 36.3 | -5 | 0.25 – 15.38 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.76 | 21.32 | 16.55 | 18.1 – 19.43 |
| 2028 | 17.9 | 22.32 | 14.06 | 16.41 – 19.39 |
| 2030 | 17.03 | 22.74 | 12.08 | 14.85 – 19.21 |
| 2035 | 14.86 | 22.93 | 7.86 | 11.33 – 18.39 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.6m | 3.8m | 3.5m | 3.5m – 3.7m |
| 2029 | 3.4m | 3.7m | 3.1m | 3.1m – 3.6m |
| 2031 | 3.1m | 3.5m | 2.7m | 2.7m – 3.4m |
| 2036 | 2.4m | 3m | 1.9m | 1.9m – 2.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.32 | 15 | -10 | 1.09 – 7.55 |
| 2028 | 4.05 | 15 | -10 | -1.63 – 9.72 |
| 2030 | 3.77 | 15 | -10 | -3.6 – 11.15 |
| 2035 | 3.09 | 15 | -10 | -7.41 – 13.58 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.2bn | 6.5bn | 3.8bn | 4.9bn – 5.5bn |
| 2028 | 5.3bn | 7.6bn | 3bn | 4.7bn – 5.9bn |
| 2030 | 5.4bn | 8.4bn | 2.4bn | 4.5bn – 6.3bn |
| 2035 | 5.8bn | 10bn | 1.5bn | 4.2bn – 7.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.08 | 4.25 | 1.91 | 2.85 – 3.31 |
| 2028 | 3.15 | 5.18 | 1.12 | 2.69 – 3.61 |
| 2030 | 3.19 | 5.8 | 0.57 | 2.53 – 3.84 |
| 2035 | 3.22 | 6.92 | 0 | 2.13 – 4.3 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.4bn | 7.6bn | 5.1bn | 6.1bn – 6.7bn |
| 2028 | 7bn | 9.2bn | 4.9bn | 6.4bn – 7.7bn |
| 2030 | 7.7bn | 10.5bn | 4.9bn | 6.7bn – 8.8bn |
| 2035 | 9.4bn | 13.3bn | 5.5bn | 7.3bn – 11.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 14.24 | 15.68 | 12.81 | 13.8 – 14.69 |
| 2029 | 14.93 | 17.41 | 12.44 | 13.83 – 16.03 |
| 2031 | 15.62 | 18.82 | 12.41 | 13.84 – 17.39 |
| 2036 | 17.33 | 21.87 | 12.79 | 13.74 – 20.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/GEO · API docs
