Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Georgia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 42/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 7.99 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.16, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.14) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+3% skill vs naive; realized ±2.6853 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Georgia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.9 | 5 | -8.8 | -3.34 – -0.46 |
| 2028 | -0.5 | 11.45 | -12.45 | -2.99 – 1.99 |
| 2030 | 0.9 | 16.33 | -14.53 | -2.33 – 4.13 |
| 2035 | 4.4 | 26.23 | -17.43 | -0.76 – 9.56 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.39 | 64.51 | 32.55 | 44.18 – 50.59 |
| 2028 | 47.35 | 77.01 | 21.64 | 40.84 – 53.86 |
| 2030 | 47.31 | 85.6 | 14.13 | 38.06 – 56.57 |
| 2035 | 47.22 | 101.37 | 0.29 | 31.93 – 62.51 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.2bn | 46.9bn | 36.3bn | 39.9bn – 42.6bn |
| 2028 | 49bn | 58.8bn | 40.5bn | 45.4bn – 52.6bn |
| 2030 | 56.8bn | 69.4bn | 45.8bn | 50.3bn – 63.2bn |
| 2035 | 76.2bn | 94bn | 60.7bn | 60.4bn – 92bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.99 | 12 | -5.32 | 5.3 – 10.67 |
| 2028 | 9.12 | 12 | -10 | 4.25 – 12 |
| 2030 | 10.25 | 12 | -10 | 3.71 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 1.99 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.4k | 11.9k | 9.1k | 10.1k – 10.7k |
| 2028 | 12.2k | 14.8k | 10k | 11.3k – 13.1k |
| 2030 | 14k | 17.3k | 11.1k | 12.4k – 15.6k |
| 2035 | 18.5k | 23.2k | 14.4k | 14.7k – 22.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.82 | 48.76 | 16.59 | 30.99 – 36.66 |
| 2028 | 32.87 | 58.73 | 3.03 | 27.31 – 38.43 |
| 2030 | 31.92 | 65.31 | 0 | 24.23 – 39.61 |
| 2035 | 29.54 | 76.75 | 0 | 17.55 – 41.53 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.28 | 60.05 | 44.52 | 50.26 – 54.31 |
| 2028 | 50.41 | 63.86 | 36.95 | 45.93 – 54.88 |
| 2030 | 48.53 | 65.9 | 31.16 | 41.99 – 55.07 |
| 2035 | 43.83 | 68.4 | 19.27 | 33.06 – 54.61 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.32 | 15.36 | -5 | 3.01 – 7.63 |
| 2028 | 9.18 | 26.57 | -5 | 4.89 – 13.48 |
| 2030 | 13.05 | 35.49 | -5 | 7.03 – 19.07 |
| 2035 | 22.71 | 50 | -5 | 12.04 – 33.37 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.76 | 21.32 | 16.55 | 18.1 – 19.43 |
| 2028 | 17.9 | 22.32 | 14.06 | 16.41 – 19.39 |
| 2030 | 17.03 | 22.74 | 12.08 | 14.85 – 19.21 |
| 2035 | 14.86 | 22.93 | 7.86 | 11.33 – 18.39 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.9m | 4.1m | 3.8m | 3.8m – 4.1m |
| 2028 | 4.1m | 4.3m | 3.9m | 3.8m – 4.4m |
| 2030 | 4.2m | 4.4m | 4m | 3.7m – 4.7m |
| 2035 | 4.5m | 4.8m | 4.3m | 3.6m – 5.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.32 | 15 | -10 | 1.09 – 7.55 |
| 2028 | 4.05 | 15 | -10 | -1.63 – 9.72 |
| 2030 | 3.77 | 15 | -10 | -3.6 – 11.15 |
| 2035 | 3.09 | 15 | -10 | -7.41 – 13.58 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.2bn | 6.5bn | 3.8bn | 4.9bn – 5.5bn |
| 2028 | 5.3bn | 7.6bn | 3bn | 4.7bn – 5.9bn |
| 2030 | 5.4bn | 8.4bn | 2.4bn | 4.5bn – 6.3bn |
| 2035 | 5.8bn | 10bn | 1.5bn | 4.2bn – 7.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.08 | 4.25 | 1.91 | 2.85 – 3.31 |
| 2028 | 3.15 | 5.18 | 1.12 | 2.69 – 3.61 |
| 2030 | 3.19 | 5.8 | 0.57 | 2.53 – 3.84 |
| 2035 | 3.22 | 6.92 | 0 | 2.13 – 4.3 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.4bn | 7.6bn | 5.1bn | 6.1bn – 6.7bn |
| 2028 | 7bn | 9.2bn | 4.9bn | 6.4bn – 7.7bn |
| 2030 | 7.7bn | 10.5bn | 4.9bn | 6.7bn – 8.8bn |
| 2035 | 9.4bn | 13.3bn | 5.5bn | 7.3bn – 11.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.13 | 12.72 | 11.53 | 11.75 – 12.5 |
| 2028 | 12.19 | 13.02 | 11.36 | 11.29 – 13.09 |
| 2030 | 12.25 | 13.32 | 11.17 | 10.86 – 13.64 |
| 2035 | 12.4 | 13.92 | 10.88 | 9.83 – 14.97 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/GEO · API docs
