Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Ghana: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 32/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.56 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.36, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.56) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±5.956 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Ghana: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed10.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 11.93 | 15.98 | 7.88 | 10.91 – 12.94 |
| 2029 | 15.58 | 22.59 | 8.57 | 13.4 – 17.76 |
| 2031 | 19.23 | 28.29 | 10.18 | 15.84 – 22.62 |
| 2036 | 28.36 | 30 | 15.56 | 21.21 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.06(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 34.94 | 42.62 | 28.28 | 33.28 – 36.59 |
| 2027 | 34.7 | 48 | 23.17 | 31.13 – 38.26 |
| 2029 | 34.46 | 51.63 | 19.58 | 29.25 – 39.67 |
| 2034 | 33.87 | 58.15 | 12.82 | 24.98 – 42.75 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed114.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 127.8bn | 150.2bn | 108.4bn | 123.1bn – 132.5bn |
| 2029 | 150.7bn | 189.4bn | 117.2bn | 138.9bn – 162.6bn |
| 2031 | 173.6bn | 223.6bn | 130.3bn | 153.8bn – 193.5bn |
| 2036 | 230.9bn | 301.5bn | 169.6bn | 183bn – 278.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.95(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.56 | 7.63 | 1.89 | 3.97 – 5.14 |
| 2029 | 4.08 | 9.4 | -0.54 | 2.99 – 5.16 |
| 2031 | 3.6 | 10.47 | -2.36 | 2.16 – 5.03 |
| 2036 | 2.4 | 12 | -6.03 | 0.39 – 4.4 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.5k | 4.2k | 3k | 3.4k – 3.7k |
| 2029 | 4.1k | 5.2k | 3.1k | 3.8k – 4.4k |
| 2031 | 4.6k | 6.1k | 3.4k | 4.1k – 5.2k |
| 2036 | 6k | 8.1k | 4.3k | 4.8k – 7.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 52.48 | 72.81 | 29.02 | 48.51 – 56.45 |
| 2029 | 51.44 | 86.66 | 10.81 | 43.56 – 59.33 |
| 2031 | 50.41 | 95.87 | 0 | 39.38 – 61.43 |
| 2036 | 47.81 | 112.11 | 0 | 30.27 – 65.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.91(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 33.4 | 39.57 | 27.23 | 31.92 – 34.88 |
| 2027 | 32.38 | 43.06 | 21.69 | 29.19 – 35.57 |
| 2029 | 31.36 | 45.15 | 17.56 | 26.74 – 35.98 |
| 2034 | 28.8 | 48.31 | 9.29 | 21.21 – 36.39 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.52 | 30.37 | -5 | -2.49 – 9.53 |
| 2029 | -5 | 41.5 | -5 | -5 – 5.55 |
| 2031 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 8.71 |
| 2036 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 14.62 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.74(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7.98 | 13.3 | 3.37 | 7.09 – 8.87 |
| 2027 | 3.61 | 12.81 | 0 | 2.12 – 5.1 |
| 2029 | 0 | 11.88 | 0 | 0 – 1.78 |
| 2034 | 0 | 16.81 | 0 | 0 – 2.56 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 35.5m | 37.2m | 34m | 34.4m – 36.6m |
| 2029 | 36.2m | 37.9m | 34.6m | 33.5m – 38.9m |
| 2031 | 36.9m | 38.7m | 35.3m | 32.7m – 41.1m |
| 2036 | 38.7m | 40.5m | 37m | 30.6m – 46.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.73 | 11.14 | -0.09 | 3.85 – 5.6 |
| 2028 | 5.29 | 15 | -3.04 | 3.65 – 6.94 |
| 2030 | 5.86 | 15 | -4.9 | 3.6 – 8.13 |
| 2035 | 7.28 | 15 | -7.94 | 3.58 – 10.99 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.4bn | 7.6bn | 0 | 2.7bn – 4.1bn |
| 2027 | 1.1bn | 8.4bn | 0 | 0 – 2.3bn |
| 2029 | 0 | 9.4bn | 0 | 0 – 1.4bn |
| 2034 | 0 | 13.4bn | 0 | 0 – 2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.64(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.97 | 3.42 | 0.53 | 1.72 – 2.23 |
| 2027 | 2.37 | 4.87 | 0 | 1.87 – 2.87 |
| 2029 | 2.57 | 5.79 | 0 | 1.87 – 3.26 |
| 2034 | 2.72 | 7.29 | 0 | 1.59 – 3.86 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.3bn | 7.5bn | 0 | 2.7bn – 4bn |
| 2027 | 852.2m | 8bn | 0 | 0 – 2bn |
| 2029 | 0 | 9.2bn | 0 | 0 – 1.4bn |
| 2034 | 0 | 13bn | 0 | 0 – 2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.92 | 3.23 | 2.6 | 2.82 – 3.01 |
| 2028 | 2.79 | 3.34 | 2.25 | 2.58 – 3.01 |
| 2030 | 2.67 | 3.37 | 1.97 | 2.35 – 2.99 |
| 2035 | 2.36 | 3.35 | 1.36 | 1.83 – 2.89 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/GHA · API docs
