Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Ghana: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 30/100); the economy is in expansion; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 7.03 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.40, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.36) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±1.3319 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Ghana: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.33 | 13.53 | 5.13 | 8.32 – 10.34 |
| 2028 | 11.79 | 19.07 | 4.51 | 9.74 – 13.84 |
| 2030 | 14.25 | 23.64 | 4.85 | 11.19 – 17.31 |
| 2035 | 20.4 | 30 | 7.11 | 14.42 – 26.37 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.06(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 34.94 | 42.62 | 28.28 | 33.28 – 36.59 |
| 2027 | 34.7 | 48 | 23.17 | 31.13 – 38.26 |
| 2029 | 34.46 | 51.63 | 19.58 | 29.25 – 39.67 |
| 2034 | 33.87 | 58.15 | 12.82 | 24.98 – 42.75 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed114.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 121.6bn | 144.3bn | 101.9bn | 116.9bn – 126.2bn |
| 2028 | 140.5bn | 179.8bn | 106.4bn | 129.1bn – 151.9bn |
| 2030 | 159.4bn | 210.2bn | 115.4bn | 140.6bn – 178.2bn |
| 2035 | 206.7bn | 278.5bn | 144.5bn | 163.9bn – 249.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.95(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.03 | 11.66 | 3.02 | 6.15 – 7.92 |
| 2028 | 9.4 | 12 | 2.45 | 7.62 – 11.19 |
| 2030 | 11.77 | 12 | 2.8 | 9.11 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -0.69 | 7.64 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.4k | 4.1k | 2.9k | 3.3k – 3.6k |
| 2028 | 3.9k | 5k | 2.9k | 3.6k – 4.2k |
| 2030 | 4.3k | 5.8k | 3.1k | 3.8k – 4.9k |
| 2035 | 5.5k | 7.5k | 3.7k | 4.3k – 6.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50.08 | 70.18 | 26.88 | 46.18 – 53.97 |
| 2028 | 52.63 | 87.45 | 12.45 | 44.74 – 60.51 |
| 2030 | 55.18 | 100.13 | 3.31 | 43.85 – 66.51 |
| 2035 | 61.56 | 125.13 | 0 | 41.93 – 81.19 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.91(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 33.4 | 39.57 | 27.23 | 31.92 – 34.88 |
| 2027 | 32.38 | 43.06 | 21.69 | 29.19 – 35.57 |
| 2029 | 31.36 | 45.15 | 17.56 | 26.74 – 35.98 |
| 2034 | 28.8 | 48.31 | 9.29 | 21.21 – 36.39 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.76 | 37.5 | -5 | 5.87 – 17.66 |
| 2028 | -0.34 | 44.24 | -5 | -5 – 9.59 |
| 2030 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 8.16 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 13.84 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.74(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7.98 | 13.3 | 3.37 | 7.09 – 8.87 |
| 2027 | 3.61 | 12.81 | 0 | 2.12 – 5.1 |
| 2029 | 0 | 11.88 | 0 | 0 – 1.78 |
| 2034 | 0 | 16.81 | 0 | 0 – 2.56 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.9m | 36.5m | 33.4m | 33.8m – 36m |
| 2028 | 35.6m | 37.3m | 34m | 33m – 38.2m |
| 2030 | 36.3m | 38m | 34.7m | 32.2m – 40.4m |
| 2035 | 38m | 39.8m | 36.4m | 30.2m – 45.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.73 | 11.14 | -0.09 | 3.85 – 5.6 |
| 2028 | 5.29 | 15 | -3.04 | 3.65 – 6.94 |
| 2030 | 5.86 | 15 | -4.9 | 3.6 – 8.13 |
| 2035 | 7.28 | 15 | -7.94 | 3.58 – 10.99 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.3bn | 15.8bn | 4.7bn | 9.3bn – 11.3bn |
| 2028 | 12.1bn | 21.7bn | 2.6bn | 10.1bn – 14.2bn |
| 2030 | 14bn | 26.3bn | 1.6bn | 11bn – 17bn |
| 2035 | 18.6bn | 36.1bn | 1.2bn | 13bn – 24.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.57 | 5.34 | 1.8 | 3.24 – 3.89 |
| 2028 | 3.25 | 6.31 | 0.18 | 2.62 – 3.87 |
| 2030 | 3.09 | 7.05 | 0 | 2.24 – 3.95 |
| 2035 | 2.97 | 8.57 | 0 | 1.64 – 4.3 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.4bn | 19.1bn | 7.8bn | 12.3bn – 14.5bn |
| 2028 | 16.5bn | 26.3bn | 6.7bn | 14.2bn – 18.8bn |
| 2030 | 19.6bn | 32.3bn | 7bn | 16.1bn – 23.1bn |
| 2035 | 27.4bn | 45.3bn | 9.5bn | 20.3bn – 34.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.92 | 3.23 | 2.6 | 2.82 – 3.01 |
| 2028 | 2.79 | 3.34 | 2.25 | 2.58 – 3.01 |
| 2030 | 2.67 | 3.37 | 1.97 | 2.35 – 2.99 |
| 2035 | 2.36 | 3.35 | 1.36 | 1.83 – 2.89 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/GHA · API docs
