Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Gibraltar: 4 observed macro indicators held; total population is projected at 39.9k for 2026.
No live macro data to derive sentiment for "GIB".
Would require: Live macro-pressure components for this country.
No real GDP growth series held for "GIB".
Would require: A real GDP growth series for this country.
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: strong track record (+57% skill vs naive; realized ±2197.4903 over 25) · a track record, not a guarantee
Gibraltar: forward projections across 1 macro indicator, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed40.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.9k | 41.8k | 38.1k | 38.7k – 41.1k |
| 2028 | 40.8k | 42.7k | 39k | 37.8k – 43.8k |
| 2030 | 41.7k | 43.6k | 39.8k | 36.9k – 46.4k |
| 2035 | 43.8k | 45.9k | 41.9k | 34.8k – 52.9k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/GIB · API docs
