Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Guinea: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 34/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 16 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 8.08 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.32, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.44) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-13% skill vs naive; realized ±0.8813 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Guinea: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-10.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -13.75 | 3.16 | -30 | -17.42 – -10.08 |
| 2028 | -11.85 | 17.45 | -30 | -18.4 – -5.3 |
| 2030 | -9.95 | 27.87 | -30 | -18.46 – -1.44 |
| 2035 | -5.2 | 30 | -30 | -16.95 – 6.55 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.66 | 57.13 | 28.25 | 38.78 – 44.54 |
| 2028 | 42.16 | 68.96 | 18.93 | 36.31 – 48.01 |
| 2030 | 42.65 | 77.26 | 12.67 | 34.3 – 51.01 |
| 2035 | 43.9 | 92.83 | 1.49 | 29.88 – 57.91 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.4bn | 32.2bn | 28.9bn | 29.5bn – 31.4bn |
| 2028 | 35.7bn | 38.8bn | 33bn | 33bn – 38.3bn |
| 2030 | 40.9bn | 45bn | 37.4bn | 36.3bn – 45.6bn |
| 2035 | 54.1bn | 59.8bn | 49.2bn | 42.9bn – 65.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.08 | 10.86 | 5.67 | 7.49 – 8.67 |
| 2028 | 9.58 | 12 | 5.41 | 8.32 – 10.84 |
| 2030 | 11.08 | 12 | 5.69 | 9.16 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | 4.38 | 8.62 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2k | 2.1k | 1.9k | 1.9k – 2.1k |
| 2028 | 2.3k | 2.5k | 2.1k | 2.1k – 2.5k |
| 2030 | 2.6k | 2.8k | 2.4k | 2.3k – 2.9k |
| 2035 | 3.3k | 3.7k | 3k | 2.6k – 4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.14 | 46.78 | 21.71 | 32.79 – 37.49 |
| 2028 | 32.82 | 52.98 | 9.56 | 28.14 – 37.49 |
| 2030 | 30.5 | 56.52 | 0.47 | 24.05 – 36.94 |
| 2035 | 24.69 | 61.5 | 0 | 15.08 – 34.31 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62.27(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 63.43 | 85.85 | 41.01 | 58.99 – 67.88 |
| 2028 | 65.76 | 104.6 | 26.93 | 56.66 – 74.86 |
| 2030 | 68.1 | 118.23 | 17.97 | 54.98 – 81.22 |
| 2035 | 73.93 | 144.82 | 3.03 | 51.25 – 96.61 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.81 | 6.49 | -3.21 | 0.74 – 2.87 |
| 2028 | -4.57 | 3.54 | -5 | -5 – -2.55 |
| 2030 | -5 | 5.46 | -5 | -5 – -2.28 |
| 2035 | -5 | 9.8 | -5 | -5 – -0.92 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.51 | 51.99 | 34.29 | 40.47 – 44.54 |
| 2028 | 53.48 | 69.91 | 39.25 | 48.57 – 58.4 |
| 2030 | 64.46 | 70 | 46.08 | 56.27 – 70 |
| 2035 | 70 | 70 | 44.01 | 54.52 – 70 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15m | 15.7m | 14.3m | 14.5m – 15.5m |
| 2028 | 15.4m | 16.1m | 14.7m | 14.2m – 16.5m |
| 2030 | 15.8m | 16.5m | 15.1m | 14m – 17.6m |
| 2035 | 16.7m | 17.5m | 16m | 13.2m – 20.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.43 | 9.51 | 2.37 | 4.83 – 6.03 |
| 2028 | 7.04 | 14.11 | 1.73 | 5.82 – 8.26 |
| 2030 | 8.65 | 15 | 1.8 | 6.81 – 10.48 |
| 2035 | 12.67 | 15 | 2.99 | 9.03 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed817.7m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 613.7m | 1.4bn | 0 | 484m – 743.3m |
| 2027 | 147.6m | 1.5bn | 0 | 0 – 362.3m |
| 2029 | 0 | 1.8bn | 0 | 0 – 268m |
| 2034 | 0 | 2.5bn | 0 | 0 – 379m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.28(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.77 | 3.79 | 0 | 1.43 – 2.1 |
| 2027 | 2.35 | 5.85 | 0 | 1.7 – 3 |
| 2029 | 2.63 | 7.16 | 0 | 1.73 – 3.54 |
| 2034 | 2.86 | 9.26 | 0 | 1.42 – 4.3 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.2bn | 1.9bn | 534.4m | 1.1bn – 1.4bn |
| 2027 | 991m | 2.2bn | 0 | 757.2m – 1.2bn |
| 2029 | 745.2m | 2.3bn | 0 | 445.3m – 1bn |
| 2034 | 130.9m | 2.4bn | 0 | 0 – 491.7m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.98 | 5.47 | 4.5 | 4.83 – 5.14 |
| 2028 | 4.62 | 5.46 | 3.78 | 4.27 – 4.97 |
| 2030 | 4.26 | 5.35 | 3.18 | 3.76 – 4.77 |
| 2035 | 3.36 | 4.9 | 1.83 | 2.59 – 4.14 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/GIN · API docs
