Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Guinea: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 33/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 16 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 9.87 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.34, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.32) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-11% skill vs naive; realized ±3.9391 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Guinea: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.7 | 18.93 | -26.32 | -8.37 – 0.98 |
| 2029 | -3.89 | 30 | -30 | -12.07 – 4.29 |
| 2031 | -4.08 | 30 | -30 | -14.73 – 6.57 |
| 2036 | -4.56 | 30 | -30 | -19.9 – 10.77 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.66 | 57.13 | 28.25 | 38.78 – 44.54 |
| 2028 | 42.16 | 68.96 | 18.93 | 36.31 – 48.01 |
| 2030 | 42.65 | 77.26 | 12.67 | 34.3 – 51.01 |
| 2035 | 43.9 | 92.83 | 1.49 | 29.88 – 57.91 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 32bn | 33.8bn | 30.4bn | 31bn – 33bn |
| 2029 | 37.1bn | 40.2bn | 34.4bn | 34.4bn – 39.9bn |
| 2031 | 42.3bn | 46.3bn | 38.7bn | 37.5bn – 47.1bn |
| 2036 | 55.1bn | 60.8bn | 50.1bn | 43.7bn – 66.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.87 | 12 | 7.41 | 9.24 – 10.5 |
| 2029 | 12 | 12 | 7.74 | 10.61 – 12 |
| 2031 | 12 | 12 | 6.51 | 9.98 – 12 |
| 2036 | 12 | 12 | 4.23 | 8.59 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.9k | 2.1k | 1.8k | 1.9k – 2k |
| 2029 | 2.2k | 2.5k | 1.9k | 2k – 2.3k |
| 2031 | 2.4k | 2.8k | 2.1k | 2.1k – 2.7k |
| 2036 | 3k | 3.5k | 2.5k | 2.4k – 3.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed44.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 45.62 | 54.02 | 35.94 | 43.6 – 47.65 |
| 2029 | 47.47 | 62.01 | 30.69 | 42.96 – 51.99 |
| 2031 | 49.32 | 68.09 | 27.66 | 42.49 – 56.15 |
| 2036 | 53.94 | 80.49 | 23.31 | 41.23 – 66.66 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62.27(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 63.43 | 85.85 | 41.01 | 58.99 – 67.88 |
| 2028 | 65.76 | 104.6 | 26.93 | 56.66 – 74.86 |
| 2030 | 68.1 | 118.23 | 17.97 | 54.98 – 81.22 |
| 2035 | 73.93 | 144.82 | 3.03 | 51.25 – 96.61 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.55(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.75 | 8.66 | 0.56 | 3.81 – 5.69 |
| 2029 | 5.53 | 12.3 | -1.73 | 3.76 – 7.29 |
| 2031 | 6.3 | 15.05 | -3.07 | 3.86 – 8.75 |
| 2036 | 8.24 | 20.61 | -5 | 4.18 – 12.3 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.51 | 51.99 | 34.29 | 40.47 – 44.54 |
| 2028 | 53.48 | 69.91 | 39.25 | 48.57 – 58.4 |
| 2030 | 64.46 | 70 | 46.08 | 56.27 – 70 |
| 2035 | 70 | 70 | 44.01 | 54.52 – 70 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 16.2m | 16.9m | 15.5m | 15.7m – 16.7m |
| 2029 | 17.4m | 18.2m | 16.6m | 16.1m – 18.7m |
| 2031 | 18.6m | 19.6m | 17.7m | 16.5m – 20.7m |
| 2036 | 21.6m | 23m | 20.3m | 17.1m – 26.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.43 | 9.51 | 2.37 | 4.83 – 6.03 |
| 2028 | 7.04 | 14.11 | 1.73 | 5.82 – 8.26 |
| 2030 | 8.65 | 15 | 1.8 | 6.81 – 10.48 |
| 2035 | 12.67 | 15 | 2.99 | 9.03 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed817.7m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 613.7m | 1.4bn | 0 | 484m – 743.3m |
| 2027 | 147.6m | 1.5bn | 0 | 0 – 362.3m |
| 2029 | 0 | 1.8bn | 0 | 0 – 268m |
| 2034 | 0 | 2.5bn | 0 | 0 – 379m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.28(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.77 | 3.79 | 0 | 1.43 – 2.1 |
| 2027 | 2.35 | 5.85 | 0 | 1.7 – 3 |
| 2029 | 2.63 | 7.16 | 0 | 1.73 – 3.54 |
| 2034 | 2.86 | 9.26 | 0 | 1.42 – 4.3 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.2bn | 1.9bn | 534.4m | 1.1bn – 1.4bn |
| 2027 | 991m | 2.2bn | 0 | 757.2m – 1.2bn |
| 2029 | 745.2m | 2.3bn | 0 | 445.3m – 1bn |
| 2034 | 130.9m | 2.4bn | 0 | 0 – 491.7m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.98 | 5.47 | 4.5 | 4.83 – 5.14 |
| 2028 | 4.62 | 5.46 | 3.78 | 4.27 – 4.97 |
| 2030 | 4.26 | 5.35 | 3.18 | 3.76 – 4.77 |
| 2035 | 3.36 | 4.9 | 1.83 | 2.59 – 4.14 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/GIN · API docs
