Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Gambia, The: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 44/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.99 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.12, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.16) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-12% skill vs naive; realized ±4.4911 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Gambia, The: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-5.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -5.06 | -3 | -7.12 | -5.56 – -4.56 |
| 2029 | -4.98 | -1.4 | -8.55 | -5.95 – -4.01 |
| 2031 | -4.9 | -0.28 | -9.51 | -6.23 – -3.56 |
| 2036 | -4.7 | 1.83 | -11.22 | -6.78 – -2.61 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.19 | 20.47 | 3.14 | 9.68 – 12.69 |
| 2028 | 8.1 | 24.17 | 0 | 5.41 – 10.78 |
| 2030 | 5.01 | 25.76 | 0 | 1.64 – 8.38 |
| 2035 | 0 | 29.35 | 0 | 0 – 4.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.9bn | 3.1bn | 2.8bn | 2.8bn – 3bn |
| 2029 | 3.2bn | 3.5bn | 2.9bn | 3bn – 3.4bn |
| 2031 | 3.5bn | 3.9bn | 3.1bn | 3.1bn – 3.9bn |
| 2036 | 4.2bn | 4.7bn | 3.7bn | 3.3bn – 5.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.99 | 5.98 | 4.13 | 4.74 – 5.23 |
| 2029 | 4.71 | 6.42 | 3.22 | 4.2 – 5.22 |
| 2031 | 4.43 | 6.64 | 2.51 | 3.71 – 5.15 |
| 2036 | 3.73 | 6.86 | 1.02 | 2.61 – 4.85 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed919.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 974.86 | 1k | 920.59 | 944.64 – 1k |
| 2029 | 1k | 1.1k | 938.91 | 956.49 – 1.1k |
| 2031 | 1.1k | 1.2k | 969.6 | 967.09 – 1.2k |
| 2036 | 1.2k | 1.4k | 1.1k | 979.68 – 1.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed68.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 66.58 | 72.21 | 60.09 | 64.52 – 68.65 |
| 2029 | 63.15 | 72.89 | 51.91 | 58.48 – 67.82 |
| 2031 | 59.71 | 72.29 | 45.2 | 52.93 – 66.49 |
| 2036 | 51.12 | 68.91 | 30.6 | 40.21 – 62.04 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.44(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49.71 | 62.85 | 36.56 | 46.9 – 52.52 |
| 2028 | 50.24 | 73.01 | 27.47 | 44.34 – 56.14 |
| 2030 | 50.77 | 80.17 | 21.38 | 42.21 – 59.34 |
| 2035 | 52.11 | 93.68 | 10.53 | 37.41 – 66.81 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.56(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.38 | 14.16 | -4.03 | 3.35 – 7.41 |
| 2029 | 2.44 | 17.65 | -5 | -1.05 – 5.93 |
| 2031 | -0.5 | 19.14 | -5 | -4.93 – 3.94 |
| 2036 | -5 | 22.78 | -5 | -5 – 1.96 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.5 | 51.98 | 34.29 | 40.47 – 44.54 |
| 2028 | 48.23 | 64.65 | 34 | 43.57 – 52.89 |
| 2030 | 53.96 | 70 | 35.58 | 46.61 – 61.3 |
| 2035 | 68.27 | 70 | 42.29 | 53.06 – 70 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.9m | 3.1m | 2.8m | 2.8m – 3m |
| 2029 | 3m | 3.2m | 2.9m | 2.8m – 3.3m |
| 2031 | 3.2m | 3.3m | 3m | 2.8m – 3.5m |
| 2036 | 3.5m | 3.6m | 3.3m | 2.7m – 4.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.91 | 8.19 | -1.05 | 2.2 – 3.61 |
| 2028 | 3.16 | 12.31 | -3.7 | 1.87 – 4.46 |
| 2030 | 3.42 | 15 | -5.43 | 1.67 – 5.17 |
| 2035 | 4.06 | 15 | -8.46 | 1.32 – 6.8 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed628.8m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 643.3m | 842.1m | 444.5m | 602.6m – 684m |
| 2027 | 696.1m | 1bn | 351.8m | 610m – 782.2m |
| 2029 | 749m | 1.2bn | 304.4m | 621m – 876.9m |
| 2034 | 881.1m | 1.5bn | 252.4m | 643.9m – 1.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.79(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.88 | 8.58 | 1.18 | 4.24 – 5.52 |
| 2027 | 4.99 | 11.39 | 0 | 3.77 – 6.21 |
| 2029 | 5.04 | 13.31 | 0 | 3.37 – 6.71 |
| 2034 | 5.08 | 16.78 | 0 | 2.48 – 7.69 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed628.8m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 643.3m | 842.1m | 444.5m | 602.6m – 684m |
| 2027 | 696.1m | 1bn | 351.8m | 610m – 782.2m |
| 2029 | 749m | 1.2bn | 304.4m | 621m – 876.9m |
| 2034 | 881.1m | 1.5bn | 252.4m | 643.9m – 1.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.65 | 7.08 | 6.22 | 6.45 – 6.86 |
| 2028 | 6.92 | 7.66 | 6.17 | 6.41 – 7.43 |
| 2030 | 7.18 | 8.14 | 6.22 | 6.37 – 8 |
| 2035 | 7.84 | 9.2 | 6.48 | 6.21 – 9.47 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/GMB · API docs
